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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by $AVE DAT MONEY
I have a very bad feeling trump will win this. I'm obviously voting democrat no matter what but the most recent polls show that we may lose the White House come November. Hill needs to do something to re invigorate her campaign as many have her pinned as a bad person.
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First I want to say thank you for voting in November, and even more for democrat because your candidate would have wanted you to do the same.
Second, you're right it's worrying she may lose and I do agree she needs to add something to her campaign to incite people but I'm not sure what she has to do. That's her style. Her style is to win you over with factoid after factoid and that isn't really exciting by itself.
Third, don't look at polls now and say with a definite face "Donald Trump will win" or "Hillary Clinton has this in the bag" because that may not be the case. Besides polls not being predictive this far out, there aren't a lot of polls out right now. The few that are out are all over the place. This is the most recent Reuters poll and has her up +8. Is this any more acceptable than the Rasmussen poll that has Trump +3? Without a full rainbow of polls to aggregate it'll be hard to tell. And state polls are even worse at this time out
In conclusion it's hard to base anything on polling data when there's just not enough data to be had right now. You can say she needs to change something based on one or two polls but those polls may just be outliers. Until we have more information (which usually comes after the convention because polls are expensive and you want to have the correct candidates) you can't say with a high degree of accuracy and reliability
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Member Since: 9/1/2013
Posts: 18,649
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yeah polls really aren't reliable until much closer to the election.
hey, i get to use research methods stuff again! i never knew that class would actually be useful for something. it was hard enough that i deserve a reward tbh >_>
anyway. yeah, in every study (even polls) there's something called an alpha level. the alpha level is the chance that something in the study will be wrong not due even remotely to the design of the experiment, but just because of random chance. even rigorously careful experiments have an alpha level of about 5% (or at least that's what it was in my field). so even polls by reputable sources can be wrong just because of some factor not related to the polling technique. that's a big reason why we should take polls with a grain of salt at the moment - with the small amount of polls and the difficulty of finding large enough sample sizes, it's really difficult to tell what's due to alpha levels and what's really strong evidence.
monte kind of already summed up this but oh well
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Member Since: 4/6/2011
Posts: 31,849
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Quote:
Originally posted by $AVE DAT MONEY
I have a very bad feeling trump will win this. I'm obviously voting democrat no matter what but the most recent polls show that we may lose the White House come November. Hill needs to do something to re invigorate her campaign as many have her pinned as a bad person.
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LOL. She has more votes than Trump but sure she's viewed as a criminal right?
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Member Since: 9/28/2011
Posts: 4,858
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Bernie needs to drop out, seriously. All the week is Trump this and Trump that, the media is invigorating his campaign everyday.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 16,870
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A Trump vs Bernard debate. I low key wish to see that mess
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Warren is definitely going to be Hillary's VP pick at this point and it's honestly the best choice. Hillary needs excitement and the only choice to do that for dems is Warren. Plus it should also help bring over independents to Hillary and maybe even some republican women who might like the idea of an all female ticket.
Plus I imagine Bernie will find it a lot easier to endorse Hillary knowing she has a liberal running mate who shares a lot of his ideas.
People say she's more valuable in the senate but with his new found popularity and influence, I think Bernie could take over the role Warren had to a greater degree.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Michael Dukakis was leading in the polls this early on and lost in a landslide. The race isn't over yet. Once Clinton is picked as the candidate and Bernie (hopefully) endorses her, her numbers will only rise. That's likely why Trump rose so much. The republican party is starting to come together.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by dannylex
Bernie needs to drop out, seriously. All the week is Trump this and Trump that, the media is invigorating his campaign everyday.
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If Bernie drops out the media will completely stop covering the Democrat race altogether.
Hillary's not interesting enough for a news cycle,so it's gonna be all Trump all day until November.
I'm sort of resigning myself to the fact that he's going to win.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Michael Dukakis was leading in the polls this early on and lost in a landslide. The race isn't over yet. Once Clinton is picked as the candidate and Bernie (hopefully) endorses her, her numbers will only rise. That's likely why Trump rose so much. The republican party is starting to come together.
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I agree wth this. And you're right about Dukakis being ahead at this time. At this point I just hope Hillary does pick a progressive VP (I still like Sanders over anyone) so she'll get actual progressive policies pushed through instead of her watered down versions if she's serious about being progressive her whole life as she says
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Trump lies about dumb stuff, Hillary lies about things that are actually serious.
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Politifact is not an accurate non-biased source.
Trump lies about things concerning his self image. Hillary lies to government about things she shouldn't have been doing in the 1st place.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
Politifact is not an accurate non-biased source.
Trump lies about things concerning his self image. Hillary lies to government about things she shouldn't have been doing in the 1st place.
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Hm. Fair enough (I wouldn't characterize Hillary's lies an lies though but definitely not 100% accurate)
With regard to Trump though it's more serious than just lies. He clearly has very little knowledge of the political world (he consults himself for foreign policy guidance. I still lol at that). The only thing he's going on right now is that he's not a Washington politician. Because we have no experience of him or how he'll be as a leader we have to rely on his word he's better than Washington insiders. But if he lies at every chance he gets how can we trust him? He's not even lying the "acceptable" way, he's just straight up telling things totally inaccurate and doing so purposely.
He's conned too many people.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
Politifact is not an accurate non-biased source.
Trump lies about things concerning his self image. Hillary lies to government about things she shouldn't have been doing in the 1st place.
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No, you're wrong.
Trump lies about history, statistics, facts, 9/11 occurrences, his tax plan, others' tax plans, claims people have said things that they had never said, unemployment rate, infrastructure statistics, things regarding ISIS, Mexican law, Israel affairs, things the president has done, about other veterans like McCain "doing nothing to help the vets", Obamacare, Ted Cruz's father, others' favorability numbers, federal spending bills, not knowing who Duke is, 9/11 celebration footage, crime statistics, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.
I could go on for paragraphs, but you get the idea. So yeah, you're wrong.
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Member Since: 8/17/2013
Posts: 19,066
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
No, you're wrong.
Trump lies about history, statistics, facts, 9/11 occurrences, his tax plan, others' tax plans, claims people have said things that they had never said, unemployment rate, infrastructure statistics, things regarding ISIS, Mexican law, Israel affairs, things the president has done, about other veterans like McCain "doing nothing to help the vets", Obamacare, Ted Cruz's father, others' favorability numbers, federal spending bills, not knowing who Duke is, 9/11 celebration footage, crime statistics, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.
I could go on for paragraphs, but you get the idea. So yeah, you're wrong.
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Hillary lies about statistics (73% equal pay myth), facts (security review, everyone had their own server), Bernie's healthcare plan, claims people said things they never said, fudges unemployment stats, things regarding her role in multiple govt. coups, Obamacare, TPP, and plenty of other things as well.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 8,251
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
No, you're wrong.
Trump lies about history, statistics, facts, 9/11 occurrences, his tax plan, others' tax plans, claims people have said things that they had never said, unemployment rate, infrastructure statistics, things regarding ISIS, Mexican law, Israel affairs, things the president has done, about other veterans like McCain "doing nothing to help the vets", Obamacare, Ted Cruz's father, others' favorability numbers, federal spending bills, not knowing who Duke is, 9/11 celebration footage, crime statistics, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.
I could go on for paragraphs, but you get the idea. So yeah, you're wrong.
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Trump knows a lot more about all of these things than you do. Just because you don't agree with his interpretation doesn't mean he's lying. 
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 21,143
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Hill's shop has posters now. Some are cute tbh
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by BlueTimberwolf
Hillary lies about statistics (73% equal pay myth), facts (security review, everyone had their own server), Bernie's healthcare plan, claims people said things they never said, fudges unemployment stats, things regarding her role in multiple govt. coups, Obamacare, TPP, and plenty of other things as well.
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You're going off-topic 
"Trump lies about things concerning his self image. Hillary lies to government about things she shouldn't have been doing in the 1st place."
Trump doesn't simply "lie about his self image" and I clearly debunked that, so you had to run to things Clinton has said when that wasn't even my main point.
But yes, Trump has in fact lied way more than Secretary Clinton has, and he's also far more likely to lie than she is, and has a higher percentage of untrue statements than she does. (AND he lies about serious things).
And no, equal pay is not a myth. I'm sorry you're wrong. 
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