Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
If Clinton wins Iowa, it's not "pretty much over" for Bernie.
|
Oh was this directed at me? Sorry to come off as rude and not respond, I sometimes forget what I write
This is why I wrote that. Iowa and New Hampshire are favorable states demographically for Sanders because of the huge portions of white liberal voters, where he trounces Clinton by a vast lead. If Clinton actually takes him in those states and continues to lead by a large part among minority voters, Sanders cannot make up ground to win the less white and less liberal states. Only a handful of states left, all in the northeast pocket which are relatively delegate poor, are more white and liberal than these first two states.
If he wins both you can say Sanders may even have the upper hand in the primaries. No candidate, democratic or republican, has lost the nomination after winning the first two. If he wins Iowa, he will definitely win the first two. That, and add to the fact that no candidate has won the nomination without one of the first two states since Bill Clinton. But then again Hillary is a Clinton.
If he loses Iowa then she'll solidly herself as a viable candidate and is also projected to win South Carolina (not sure about Nevada there isn't too many recent polls on it but she does lead the Hispanic vote over Bernie). Then we'll get to the delegate rich south which is full of minority voters and less liberals so she'll win huge. Add that to her superdelegate advantage and I think it'll be too big for Sanders to overcome
Iowa is important, but moreso for Sanders. So I defend myself when saying it's pretty much over
I'm going to be so stressed tomorrow
