Uptown funk is god's reincarnation

Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 10/01/2015

#1. The Weeknd – "The Hills" – 104,651 (1,587,701)

#2. Drake – “Hotline Bling (Cha Cha Remix)” – 101,431 (564,185)

#3. Fetty Wap f. Remy Boyz – “679” – 69,459 (944,749)

#4. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis – “Downtown” – 68,475 (395,487)

#5. The Weeknd – “Can’t Feel My Face” – 57,669 (1,801,640)

#6. Silentó – "Watch Me" – 52,834 (1,813,342)

#7. Drake & Future – “Jumpman” – 34,220 (74,842)

#8. iHeart Memphis – “Hit The Quan” – 29,670 (307,188)

#9. Fetty Wap – “RGF Island” – 26,493 (82,687)

#10. Drake – “Right Hand” – 25,677 (157,985)

I am going to admit I miscalculated SYA's longevity on the Hot 100, where it's stalled out in the high 20s. The way it's sales was falling and airplay plummeted for a while. I felt for sure 33 weeks would be the max for the song. However, airplay has bottomed out around UF, sales are a little below UF, ODS is dropping, but VS just won't quit. SYA looks like it'll stay on the Hot 100 through the end of the chart year, though it's so streaming heavy it could disappear the first week of December/2016 Chart Year. Much of that will depend on what happens at the AMAs, where I think UF will have the edge. Hopefully TOL can hang on through the end of the year too.

TOL is receiving extremely strong recurrent HAC airplay, where it's #30 (!!) on the AS+R chart. This should indirectly help it maintain sales longevity as well, seeing as the HAC demographic buys music more frequently than the pop demographic.

Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:

1. The Hills = 20% Sales + 32% Airplay + 48% Streaming
2. What Do You Mean? = 21% Sales + 29% Airplay + 50% Streaming
3. Hotline Bling = 25% Sales + 22% Airplay + 53% Streaming
4. Can't Feel My Face = 16% Sales + 39% Airplay + 45% Streaming
5. 679 = 20% Sales + 18% Airplay + 62% Streaming
6. Locked Away = 22% Sales + 46% Airplay + 32% Streaming
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 18% Sales + 4% Airplay + 78% Streaming
8. Wildest Dreams = 30% Sales + 43% Airplay + 27% Streaming
9. Stitches = 26% Sales + 30% Airplay + 44% Streaming
10. Good For You = 15% Sales + 42% Airplay + 43% Streaming

11. Cheerleader = 17% Sales + 31% Airplay + 52% Streaming
12. Lean On = 11% Sales + 41% Airplay + 48% Streaming
13. Photograph = 16% Sales + 55% Airplay + 29% Streaming
14. Trap Queen = 17% Sales + 11% Airplay + 72% Streaming
15. Downtown = 33% Sales + 28% Airplay + 39% Streaming
16. My Way = 15% Sales + 22% Airplay + 63% Streaming
17. Hit The Quan = 17% Sales + 3% Airplay + 80% Streaming
18. Renegades = 23% Sales + 50% Airplay + 27% Streaming
19. Cool For The Summer = 14% Sales + 47% Airplay + 39% Streaming
20. Drag Me Down = 25% Sales + 30% Airplay + 45% Streaming

So for the Top 20 this week = 20% Sales + 31% Airplay + 49% Streaming

Streaming > Airplay > Sales

Holiest Dreams 30% from sales, the most in the T13; sales queen!

These should all be expected though.

I agree that it's very interesting but based on the last 6 months of data it's completely expected.

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Re: reweighting, I hope they don't increase sales' influence, and they probably won't imo. What's the point?

Predictions:

1. The Hills = (8-12% of lead)
2. Hotline Bling +1
3. What Do You Mean? =
4. 679 +1
5. Locked Away +1
6. Can't Feel My Face -2
7. Stitches +2
8. Wildest Dreams =
9. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) -2
10. Good For You =

11. Lean On +1
12. Cheerleader -1
13. Photograph =
14. Downtown +1
15. Jumpman +6
16. My Way =
17. Renegades +1
18. Ex's & Oh's +4
19. Hit the Quan -2
20. Trap Queen -6

Come ON On My Mind

I doubt Trap Queen drops below #17 or #18, honestly.

10%? Will it even have that much, though?

Obvs they should adjust the formula to whatever helps out Taylor the most. I mean, She is the Music Industry.

It's hell close for 17-20 spots

I think the airplay component is the most inaccurate and should be dropped altogether. I realize that it is a "business" decision not to drop it. If it was dropped anyone could come up with their own HOT 100 chart.