I just calculated how the EVs would fall if every EV was allocated proportionally to how each state voted. If you won more than half of an electoral vote, you win that whole vote.
Clinton: 260
Trump: 258
Johnson: 9
Stein: 1
McMullin: 1
Unassigned: 9 (no one got more than half of the EV for these, so no one actually got it)
So here, there's a technical Hillary victory. However, she is 10 short of 270.
The unassigned electors should therefore be left up to the states to decide what to do with. They could allow the elector to vote for whomever, have the state legislature vote on who the elector will vote for, etc.
Let's assume that the unassigned electors are assigned to whomever won their state:
Trump: 264
Clinton: 263
Johnson: 9
Stein: 1
McMullin: 1
So Trump actually takes the lead if unassigned electors are assigned to their state's winner.
The reason there's some unassigned votes in the first place is because for some EVs, no one got more than half of that vote. Rounding to the tenth place:
Clinton: 261
Trump: 260
Johnson: 11
Stein: 1
McMullin: 1
Unassigned: 4
Assigning these unassigned votes to their states' winners, we get:
Trump: 263
Clinton: 262
Johnson: 11
Stein: 1
McMullin: 1
Now, if we just give the EVs to whoever was the closest to that EV in the original scenario:
Trump: 262
Clinton: 261
Johnson: 12
Stein: 2
McMullin: 1
So in ANY of these cases (assuming all electors vote the way they're assigned to), the election would go to the next Congress, which means Hillary would NEVER be elected
What could happen if the election went to the next Congress? Since Republicans control both chambers, in a normal election cycle the House would elect the Republican presidential candidate and the Senate would elect their running mate. With the Republicans' presidential candidate being Trump, and since each state gets one vote when the House elects the president, the Republican-controlled House could stall by splitting the vote, not coming to a consensus in a tie for a state, or both. The Senate will then vote for VP the way they vote for anything else. Pence then could easily become our acting President by a slight majority. However, if some moderate Republicans don't feel like he's fit to run the country, they could split the vote, which could result in a tie or Kaine being elected as the VP. In a tie, the sitting VP, as the Senate's tiebreaking vote, would vote, and obviously this would also result in Kaine being elected VP.
Obviously, the race does change if proportional EV allocation is used. This would result in no more swing states, as every EV in every state would become important.
TL;DR: If the electoral college voted proportional to the vote of the states they came from with the popular vote results from this election, Clinton and Trump would be within 2 electoral votes of each other no matter what, and no one would reach 270. The election would then go to the new House for president and the new Senate for VP. If the House is gridlocked, we'd most likely get President Pence
