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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 23,857
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Quote:
Originally posted by Saskia
don't forget the 4 mothers of the men who died in Benghazi and Bill Clinton's alleged black son
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The clown show is truly in Vegas.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Member Since: 8/26/2012
Posts: 3,733
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 231
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Quote:
Originally posted by Skywalker
Sarah Palin being at the debate means the SNL skit will be lit though.
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GURLS it's a 30 Rock reunion 
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Member Since: 10/17/2011
Posts: 8,965
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They're really TRYING it
Please let the Trump train collapse tonight!
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Member Since: 4/4/2014
Posts: 32,654
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Quote:
Originally posted by Skywalker
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WHO is this convincing
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Member Since: 5/8/2012
Posts: 124
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2010
Posts: 7,796
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Member Since: 1/4/2012
Posts: 7,329
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Poor Mook looks like he hasn't slept in days.
It will be all worth it in the end though, 
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Member Since: 3/6/2014
Posts: 13,097
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If Trump Wins, Here's How the Map Might Look
Quote:
As of midday on Monday, the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast model still showed that Trump had a 11.4 percent chance of winning. (It’s currently at around 13 percent.) This means that, after our model runs 10,000 simulations of the electoral map with the latest poll data, Trump won in about 1,140 simulations (1,137 to be specific).
What do those victory maps look like? What is Donald Trump’s pathway to the White House, electorally speaking?
My colleague Jay Boice was kind enough to send over the model output from a run on Monday, so I dove in and looked at the 1,137 of 10,000 runs where Trump pulled off a clean electoral win. Here are the swing states that he won most often:
There are six states — Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada — that appear on at least 80 percent of Trump’s victory maps. It’s very, very difficult to imagine a win for Trump if he doesn’t win all of these: A Trump win without Ohio occurs less than 1 percent of the time in the model simulations, and a win without Nevada only about 2 percent of the time. There are six more states that appear on around half or more of the victory maps, and these are a bit interesting: Minnesota appears more often than Pennsylvania, but in fairness Pennsylvania is rather definitively far out of Trump’s reach, whereas there is more uncertainty in Minnesota given slightly scanter polling.
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Even if he won all 6 of those states (Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada) plus Utah, Georgia, and all 5 electoral votes from Nebraska, it would only get him to 265. If he won New Hampshire on top of that it would make the election a tie.
So even if he wins every swing state except for Colorado and Pennsylvania (which aren't even really swing states) it still wouldn't be enough to get him to 270.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 2,823
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i'm so ready for this circus to be over
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 23,857
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Quote:
Originally posted by joelovesmusic
They're really TRYING it
Please let the Trump train collapse tonight!
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Maybe Trump gave up and he's just inviting all the fools to crash the train with him.
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Member Since: 4/4/2014
Posts: 32,654
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Quote:
Danney Williams @danney_williams Oct 9
Watching my step mother @HillaryClinton and @realDonaldTrump debate.
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...skdhsdkhgks  UHHH
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Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 1,311
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sensation
i'm so ready for this circus to be over
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It'll be replaced by another circus almost immediately, though, US politics is so draining  The midterms will come up fast, and plus, read the below article. Things are going to get so messy in the Republican Party after this election. If you think its bad now, it will get x10 worse after Trump, simply because you're going to have so many different factions trying to move the party in different directions. The likes of Kasich and Jeb! trying to make it more moderate and appeal to women and minorities, the likes of Cruz and Pence trying to reinforce conservative and christian values, then you're going to have candidates in future now standing on the Trump platform, the "anti-establishment, I'm not a politician" candidate...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ryan?CMP=fb_gu
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2010
Posts: 7,796
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Member Since: 11/30/2011
Posts: 2,986
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Quote:
Originally posted by Delilah.
...skdhsdkhgks UHHH |
Omg that Twitter is so weird.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 7,726
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Quote:
Originally posted by Skywalker
[IMG]https://i.sli.mg/Xtt8tN.png
[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/oPj9CqX.gif]
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What a childish bunch of losers.
Who DOESN'T have a family member they don't get along with?
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Member Since: 4/10/2012
Posts: 14,915
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jacketh
It'll be replaced by another circus almost immediately, though, US politics is so draining The midterms will come up fast, and plus, read the below article. Things are going to get so messy in the Republican Party after this election. If you think its bad now, it will get x10 worse after Trump, simply because you're going to have so many different factions trying to move the party in different directions. The likes of Kasich and Jeb! trying to make it more moderate and appeal to women and minorities, the likes of Cruz and Pence trying to reinforce conservative and christian values, then you're going to have candidates in future now standing on the Trump platform, the "anti-establishment, I'm not a politician" candidate...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ryan?CMP=fb_gu |
FUN! Can't wait!
And to think I thought things were gonna get boring after the election!
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Member Since: 8/26/2012
Posts: 3,733
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#ClintonKid..more like #UglyAsSin
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 14,905
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Quote:
Originally posted by KatyLegendperry
If Trump Wins, Here's How the Map Might Look
Even if he won all 6 of those states (Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada) plus Utah, Georgia, and all 5 electoral votes from Nebraska, it would only get him to 265. If he won New Hampshire on top of that it would make the election a tie.
So even if he wins every swing state except for Colorado and Pennsylvania (which aren't even really swing states) it still wouldn't be enough to get him to 270.
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so in other words, he's done?
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