PAK is the same as music shows in that the timing of the release is very important. The less competition, the better your chances are. PAKs are cute indicators of digital success and most songs that get PAKs are huge hits. Music show awards, on the other hand, are manipulated a lot and pretty much irrelevant. The randomest of boy groups can win only because they moved more albums and got more fan votes than their comp. And the shows stay bringing in only 0.5% ratings.
