Here we go sistren, the wrap-up of early voting this week
Florida: Still, the Clinton campaign is pleased with the improved performance of registered Democrats from 2012, both in narrowing the Republican margin and increasing the overall volume of mail ballots. Obama won Florida by +0.9 points in 2012, and the Pollster polling average has Clinton at +3.6 points. The early vote data so far does not contradict the notion Clinton is doing better than Obama, however, it will be important it see how well Democrats perform during the crucial in-person early voting period to be certain that the mail ballots simply don’t represent a shuffling of when and how people vote.
Iowa, we have to be careful about this one: That more registered Democrats have requested ballots and returned them does not signal Democratic victory. Iowa Democrats typically do much better than they are currently doing. There has been some modest improvement for Democrats in Iowa. They were off their 2012 level by 50,024 the previous Friday, but where down only 42,397 by last Friday. However, Republicans have also improved. They were down 14,099 as of the previous Friday, but were down only 2,221 by last Friday. Since returned ballots lag requested ballots, the downward trajectory in the 2012 comparison is not surprising.
Obama won Iowa by 5.8 percentage points in 2012, and the Pollster average has a Trump lead of 2.1 points. Unless Democrats start voting in greater numbers, Trump may win a narrow victory.
Maine: There has not been much change to early voting patterns in Maine since the last update. Indeed, the state only provided a single update on Monday, so the state’s data is a growing a little stale. That said, after a slow start, Democrats increased their activity such that early voting is running ahead of 2012 and there is now a similar partisan distribution both statewide and within the two congressional districts.
North Carolina: Since the start of the mail balloting on Sept. 9, registered Democrats have been running well ahead of their 2012 levels. Although Republicans have pulled ahead of the Democrats in their 2016 ballots requested and returned, Sunday’s statistics show Republicans still lag behind their 2012 levels.
Ohio: Long one, but since they don't say which party the requests/returns are from we just have to guess county statistics and several Dem counties are lagging so there's no room to be complacent.
Summary:
I believe early voting provides another signal along with the polling averages. When the two point in the same direction, we can have greater confidence in the polling averages than just the average alone. There have been fewer state polls than in in recent elections, so in some cases, early voting fills an important gap between quality polling.
To recap again:
In the Southern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, Hillary Clinton is poised to do better than Barack Obama did in 2012. This is apparent in the polling and early voting numbers.
In the Midwestern states of Iowa and Ohio, Donald Trump is poised to do better than Mitt Romney did in 2012. This again is apparent in the polling and early voting numbers.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michae..._12517738.html
. I mean they're not wrong, many GOP supporters this year are neo Nazis but still 
. And Trump being annoyong is nothing new
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