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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
I can say that I'm no longer confident in the result of this election (despite the fundamentals) because I simply have no faith in white voters as a collective.
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That, plus having no faith that minority voters will actually show up this year
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
That, plus having no faith that minority voters will actually show up this year
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Minorities will show up. Black women will show up more than anyone else. Believe that. But if record numbers of non-college whites show up, or if white voters break for Trump 70-30, it does not matter what minorities do.
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Minorities will show up. Black women will show up more than anyone else. Believe that. But if record numbers of non-college whites show up, or if white voters break for Trump 70-30, it does not matter what minorities do.
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This is my greatest fear. Trumps appeal and Romney's appeal are VERY different. You can NOT compare this to 2012... You just cannot.
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Member Since: 1/8/2012
Posts: 313
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dessy Fenix
Oh nah I meant mentioning her. I also doubt she would show up.
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oh  sorry I'm dumb
Is anyone worried that Hillary might try to attack Trump a bit too much and Trump will just try to appear civilized and not say anything crazy?
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 28,773
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You can't judge Trump as you judge other politicians. For one, he's not a politician. For two, he's a master of everything reality Tv.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
This is my greatest fear. Trumps appeal and Romney's appeal are VERY different. You can NOT compare this to 2012... You just cannot.
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Now thus far we don't have evidence that this will happen. Truthfully I didn't buy it myself. But seeing how #triggered white people got by Kaepernick...nope. Can't trust em and can't discount the possibility.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by Axel
oh sorry I'm dumb
Is anyone worried that Hillary might try to attack Trump a bit too much and Trump will just try to appear civilized and not say anything crazy? |
Trump during the GOP debates was never really that unhinged. I don't expect him to do anything crazy. But then again 45 minutes is a long time for him to go off-prompter.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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People in here scared when Trump is still losing college educated whites. And y'all think he's going to break 70-30 with whites. 
The lack of faith in Hillary is quite sad. I get being tense, but to be so paranoid is one the reasons Democrats fail.
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Trump during the GOP debates was never really that unhinged. I don't expect him to do anything crazy. But then again 45 minutes is a long time for him to go off-prompter.
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Most of the time in the GOP debates, Trump would just ramble every now and then off-topic about how amazing he was, and then quietly slip into the background while everybody else slit each other's throats. There's nowhere for him to hide in a one-on-one debate.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
People in here scared when Trump is still losing college educated whites. And y'all think he's going to break 70-30 with whites.
The lack of faith in Hillary is quite sad. I get being tense, but to be so paranoid is one the reasons Democrats fail. |
College educated whites are more prevalent in non-swing states like MD, CA and most of the Northeast. Non-college whites have a big impact in PA, OH, FL, NV, IA, and ME (as we see with ME-2). College educated whites have saved her in VA and very well might save her in NC, but non-college whites represent a much bigger pool of opportunity for Trump.
This isn't about lack of faith in Hillary, it's about a lack of faith in white voters, which frankly I believe is justified. I think any Dem would have had this issue besides perhaps Biden.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Minorities will show up. Black women will show up more than anyone else. Believe that. But if record numbers of non-college whites show up, or if white voters break for Trump 70-30, it does not matter what minorities do.
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I actually think black turnout will disappoint massively. Polls have been showing for a while that black enthusiasm in the election, esp among black millenials, is at an all time low (I can see it irl too). I can see it flip quickly though, esp if a Trump victory is looming
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Agree w/your point about white voters too. I never trusted them, right from the jump.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 4,113
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That, and the media tbh.
A lot of journalists/commentators are now saying tbe media's treatment of Hillary reminds them of how they treated Gore in reference to their desperation to paint her as more untrustworthy than she really is
The MSM helped created this monster for clicks and ratings. Hard to undo now as the NYT is desperately trying to 
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
I actually think black turnout will disappoint massively. Polls have been showing for a while that black enthusiasm in the election, esp among black millenials, is at an all time low (I can see it irl too).
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Exactly. A lot of black people only turned up to vote in the last two elections to vote for Obama, and then disappeared when it came time for midterms. I hope they don't disappear again just because Obama isn't on the ballot.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
I actually think black turnout will disappoint massively. Polls have been showing for a while that black enthusiasm in the election, esp among black millenials, is at an all time low (I can see it irl too). I can see it flip quickly though, esp if a Trump victory is looming
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Agree w/your point about white voters too. I never trusted them, right from the jump.
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Black millennials don't vote anyway. They retweet, share on Facebook, and post crying Jordan memes. The black vote turns on middle-aged black women, and they will absolutely vote.
The whole millennial thing is overrated. If they were THAT influential Bernie wouldn't have gotten spanked.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 3,292
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Quote:
Originally posted by Concrete
That, and the media tbh.
A lot of journalists/commentators are now saying tbe media's treatment of Hillary reminds them of how they treated Gore in reference to their desperation to paint her as more untrustworthy than she really is
The MSM helped created this monster for clicks and ratings. Hard to undo now as the NYT is desperately trying to |
Media won't try to undo ****. They just want drama. If Trump gets elected, they'll tear him apart just to get even more drama. They'll question EVERY ONE OF HIS MOVES.
Hillary will less attention after the first 2 months.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 4,113
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POTUS and FLOTUS will be doing a lot of campaigning, thank God
Hope that shores up the black vote
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jacketh
Considering Trump needs essentially every swing state to go his way, I can see why the Clinton campaign would give up on Ohio. Clinton has leeway. She can afford to lose Ohio. She can even afford to lose Florida too if she wants. Trump is essentially finished if he doesn't swing PA.
Flood PA with all her resources and energy. If she keeps PA, she's essentially President. She'd need to keep hold of either one of Colorado or Nevada. Trump might swing one of them (perhaps Nevada), but its unlikely he'll get both.
If she invests everything into Florida and PA - and securing Colorado, she's President. She doesn't even need Florida, just PA and Colorado would do. But Florida could be her back up if PA goes wrong.
No need for Ohio really. The fear could be that if she tries to win them all and divides her funds and effort, but comes out with nothing. Focusing on the few she needs and absolutely securing them sounds more pragmatic and sensible IMO.
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Nah, White people are too unpredictable (and untrustworthy) to 'cede' any swing states this early in advance. Who knows what they'll do in the voting booth, esp now that the media has already declared Trump the winner of the first debate and it's not eve happened yet. Lord
PA will definitely stay blue but Wisconsin might flip. NV looks tricky as well. FL could go either way.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 28,773
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Yep, can't trust the yts in this election
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 4,113
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Quote:
Originally posted by TheLastChord
Media won't try to undo ****. They just want drama. If Trump gets elected, they'll tear him apart just to get even more drama. They'll question EVERY ONE OF HIS MOVES.
Hillary will less attention after the first 2 months.
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The press seems to finally have their ish together (at least the NYT, who have been very messy this election season)
MSNBC has been decent. CNN needs to get it together though, like 
Hope you're wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if you aren't
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by Concrete
The press seems to finally have their ish together (at least the NYT, who have been very messy this election season)
MSNBC has been decent. CNN needs to get it together though, like
Hope you're wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if you aren't |
Yeah, some of them have gotten it together after Trump played them with that DC Hotel opening disguised as a birther presser. Not enough though. The only media outlet that has been truly good this election is the Washington Post.
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