[Torturo]

Originally posted by simmnfierzig

Updated predictions. Still 3 days of airplay and 2 days of Youtube missing

Can the bottom of the top 10 please stop being so close

1. Closer 617 (=)
2. Heathens 343 (=)
3. Cold Water 333 (=)
4. Cheap Thrills 254 (=)
5. Don't Let Me Down 224 (=)
6. Let Me Love You 215 (+6)
7. This Is What You Came For 212 (=)
8. Ride 212 (-2)
9. Broccoli 212 (+5)
10. Send My Love 211 (-2)
11. Needed Me 211 (-2)
12. Treat You Better 206 (+1)
13. We Don't Talk Anymore 202 (-3)
14. One Dance 194 (-3)
15. Too Good 184 (=)
16. Side To Side 184 (+2)
17. Perfect Illusion 183 (debut) *95k sales, 22M airplay, 8M streams*
18. Into You 183 (-3)
19. Can't Stop The Feeling 173 (-3)
20. Luv 159 (-1)

21-100

21. Gold 158 (-1)
22. Sucker For Pain 154 (-1)
23. The Greatest 152 (+29)
24. I Hate U I Love U 149 (-2)
25. For Free 134 (-2)
26. Hymn For The Weekend 129 (=)
27. Panda 127 (-3)
28. Never Be Like You 124 (-3)
29. Unsteady 123 (-2)
30. Controlla 122 (-3)
31. Sit Still, Look Pretty 116 (-3)
32. This Girl 114 (-2)
33. Tiimmy Turner 112 (+1)
34. Starving 105 (+5)
35. No Limit 105 (+1)
36. Work From Home 101 (-5)
37. Just Like Fire 100 (-5)
38. Peter Pan 98 (-3)
39. Stressed Out 96 (-2)
40. Different For Girls 92 (+6)
41. Setting The World On Fire 92 (+8)
42. Pick Up The Phone 89 (+1)
43. I Took A Pill In Ibiza 89 (-2)
44. Work 89 (-6)
45. Low Life 88 (-1)
46. 7 Years 88 (-1)
47. Mama Said 87 (-5)
48. Fade 87 (+50)
49. H.O.L.Y. 86 (-9)
50. Chill Bill 81 (+1)
51. All In My Head 76 (-4)
52. Don't Mind 76 (-2)
53. In The Name Of Love 72 (+3)
54. Father Stretch My Hands Pt.1 71 (+5)
55. Me Too 71 (-7)
56. Money Longer 70 (+1)
57. You & Me 69 (+1)
58. Make You Miss Me 68 (-5)
59. It Don't Hurt Like It Used To 67 (+8)
60. I Got The Keys 67 (-5)
61. Vice 66 (-7)
62. Scars To Your Beautiful 64 (+17)
63. That Part 64 (-2)
64. Middle Of A Memory 62 (+4)
65. No Problem 62 (+11)
66. Wat U Mean 61 (=)
67. Make Me 61 (-34)
68. Rock On 61 (-8)
69. Rise 60 (-7)
70. I Met A Girl 58 (+10)
71. May We All 57 (-11)
72. Ooouuu 57 (+10)
73. Gangsta 57 (-10)
74. She's Got A Way With Words 55 (-3)
75. Too Much Sauce 55 (+6)
76. Why You Always Hatin? 55 (-6)
77. Purple Lamborghini 54 (-5)
78. Caroline 54 (+16)
79. One Night 54 (+5)
80. Hold Up 53 (-11)
81. Come And See Me 53 (+2)
82. Move 52 (+6)
83. Blue Ain't Your Color 52 (debut)
84. My PYT 51 (-11)
85. You Look Like I Need A Drink 50 (+1)
86. Hasta El Amanecer 50 (-8)
87. No Shopping 49 (-2)
88. From The Ground Up 49 (-14)
89. I Know Somebody 49 (+4)
90. Sleep Without You 48 (debut)
91. A Little More Summertime 47 (re-entry)
92. You Don't Own Me 47 (-5)
93. Waste A Moment 47 (debut)
94. Childs Play 47 (-17)
95. Do You Mind 50 (-1)
96. American Country Love Song 46 (-32)
97. You Was Right 46 (-2)
98. Grass Ain't Greener 45 (-8)
99. X 45 (debut)
100. Deja Vu 43 (debut)

Below

Capsize 42
Cool Girl 42
Sex With Me 40
Say It 37
Still Falling For You 37
Ain't My Fault 31

22m nielsen or mediabase? If it's nielsen, how much did you predict it would be on mediabase?

[simmnfierzig]

Originally posted by Torturo

22m nielsen or mediabase? If it's nielsen, how much did you predict it would be on mediabase?

Nielsen. 28M Mediabase, but that's seems too high.

[Sheena]

Wow looks like another top 5 for Justin. Hard to come by these days.

[FAN]

I can't believe Justin's about to have two songs in the top 5 all over again

Five top 5's in a year is huge!

[novembers17th]

If LMLY makes it into the top 5 eventually the amount of times Justin will have had multiple songs top 5 is insane

[Ger-55]

Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:

1. Closer = 33% Sales + 14% Airplay + 53% Streaming
2. Heathens = 28% Sales + 20% Airplay + 52% Streaming
3. Cold Water = 18% Sales + 33% Airplay + 49% Streaming
4. Cheap Thrills = 16% Sales + 50% Airplay + 34% Streaming
5. Don't Let Me Down = 14% Sales + 35% Airplay + 51% Streaming
6. Ride = 13% Sales + 49% Airplay + 38% Streaming
7. This Is What You Came For = 11% Sales + 44% Airplay + 45% Streaming
8. Send My Love (To Your New Lover) = 13% Sales + 61% Airplay + 26% Streaming
9. Needed Me = 12% Sales + 36% Airplay + 52% Streaming
10. We Don't Talk Anymore = 25% Sales + 29% Airplay + 46% Streaming

11. One Dance = 10% Sales + 45% Airplay + 45% Streaming
12. Let Me Love You = 22% Sales + 21% Airplay + 57% Streaming
13. Treat You Better = 14% Sales + 45% Airplay + 41% Streaming
14. Broccoli = 17% Sales + 11% Airplay + 72% Streaming
15. Into You = 14% Sales + 41% Airplay + 45% Streaming
16. CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! = 21% Sales + 51% Airplay + 28% Streaming
17. Too Good = 14% Sales + 44% Airplay + 42% Streaming
18. Side To Side = 27% Sales + 1% Airplay + 72% Streaming
19. LUV = 10% Sales + 42% Airplay + 48% Streaming
20. Gold = 31% Sales + 30% Airplay + 39% Streaming

So for the Top 20 this week = 18% Sales + 35% Airplay + 47% Streaming

Streaming > Airplay > Sales

[Chaos Angel]

Oh well, PI is doing terrible on sales but at least it's streams aren't tragic. It will have the 2nd highest opening streams for a female lead single in 2016 (DW did 9m). That's pretty good for being for it being her first single in the streaming era. I still place my bets on a #15 debut. I think it will end up selling 105k. Kworb is usually on the low side.

[Ger-55]

2016 Building Year-End Chart
Week #43/52
(83% so far)

Rank	Change	Artist	Song	Total Points / Gain TW
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20	= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =	Justin Bieber Justin Bieber Adele twenty one pilots Rihanna Drake Desiigner Flo Rida Lukas Graham The Chainsmokers Mike Posner DNCE G-Eazy x Bebe Rexha Fifth Harmony Justin Timberlake ZAYN Drake Sia Rihanna Shawn Mendes	"Sorry" "Love Yourself" "Hello" "Stressed Out" "Work (feat. Drake)" "One Dance (feat. Wizkid & Kyla)" "Panda" "My House" "7 Years" "Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya)" "I Took A Pill In Ibiza" "Cake By The Ocean" "Me, Myself & I" "Work From Home (feat. Ty Dolla $ign)" "CAN'T STOP THE FEELING!" "PILLOWTALK" "Hotline Bling" "Cheap Thrills (feat. Sean Paul)" "Needed Me" "Stitches"	10,907 10,716 9,740 8,794 (+98) 8,495 (+94) 8,177 (+205) 7.565 (+133) 6,726 6,597 (+83) 6,480 (+232) 6,186 (+91) 6,139 5,968 5,928 (+109) 5,911 (+181) 5,364 5,301 5,289 (+270) 5,250 (+217) 5,229

[mowino]

Originally posted by Ger-55

2016 Building Year-End Chart
Week #43/52
(83% so far)

Bieber is kiling the game

Where do you have This Is What You Came For? Is top 20 guaranteed?

[Ger-55]

According to the list right now...

Biggest #1-peaking hit Justin Bieber - "Sorry"
Biggest #2-peaking hit twenty one pilots - "Stressed Out"
Biggest #3-peaking hit The Chainsmokers - "Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya)"
Biggest #4-peaking hit Flo Rida - "My House"
Biggest #5-peaking hit Alessia Cara - "Here"
Biggest #6-peaking hit The Chainsmokers - "Roses (feat. ROZES)"
Biggest #7-peaking hit G-Eazy x Bebe Rexha - "Me, Myself & I"
Biggest #8-peaking hit Meghan Trainor - "Like I'm Gonna Lose You (feat. John Legend)"
Biggest #9-peaking hit DNCE - "Cake By The Ocean"
Biggest #10-peaking hit P!nk - "Just Like Fire"

[Cz!]

OD could still be #1 if Drake plays his cards right.

[Cz!]

Originally posted by Cz!

OD could still be #1 if Drake plays his cards right.

Which, of course, won't happen.

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by mowino

Bieber is kiling the game

Where do you have This Is What You Came For? Is top 20 guaranteed?

Definetely, it's at #21 currently with 4,845 points

[FanOfPop]

BILBOARD 200:

New Peaks:
#32 Various Artists - The RCA-List ( + 3)
#43 D.R.A.M. - Google Play: Live At The Milk Jamroom (EP) ( + 6)
#46 Kiiara - Low Kii Savage (EP) ( + 1)
#56 Lynyrd Skynyrd - All Time Greatest Hits (RE)
#68 Jason Derulo - Platinum Hits ( + 71)

New Entries:
#1 Travis Scott - Birds In The Trap Sing McKnight
#2 A Day To Remember - Bad Vibrations
#17 Isaiah Rashad - The Sun's Tirade
#27 Various Artists - Epic Lit
#47 Angel Olsen - My Woman
#96 Various Artists - The Dolan Twins: Tunesdays
#138 All Sons & Daughters - Poets & Saints
#160 Various Artists - 21 Throwback Jams

Re-Entries:
#56 Lynyrd Skynyrd - All Time Greatest Hits
#95 Joey + Rory - Hymns
#106 Beastie Boys - Licensed To III
#115 Amy Winehouse - Back To Black
#131 The Doors - The Doors
#135 Sublime - Sublime
#150 Travis Scott - Rodeo
#168 Evanescence - Fallen
#173 Michael Jackson - Thriller
#188 Five Finger Death Punch - Got Your Six
#194 Michael Jackson - Off The Wall
#196 Dr. Dre - Dr. Dre -- 2001
#199 Lil Wayne - The Carter III
#200 Michael Jackson - Bad

Drop-Outs:
CNCO - Primera Cita (1 week)
Vince Staples - Prima Donna (EP) (1 week)
Carly Rae Jepsen - E-MO-TION: Side B (1 week)
Various Artists - Epic AF (11 weeks)
Michael Sweet - One Sided War (1 week)
Prophets Of Rage - The Party's Over (EP) (1 week)
Joseph - I'm Alone, No You're Not (1 week)
FUTURISTIC - As Seen On The Internet (1 week)
Juan Gabriel - Vestido de Etiqueta: Por Eduardo Magallanes (1 week)
Young Dolph - Rich Crack Baby (1 week)
Michael Jackson - The Essential Michael Jackson (171 weeks)
Butch Walker - Sta Gold (1 week)
Chris Young - I'm Comin' Over (42 weeks)
Pearl Jam - Ten (261 weeks)
Rihanna - Unapologetic (66 weeks)
Banks & Steelz - Anything But Words (1 week)
Ty Dolla $ign - Free TC (37 weeks)
Britney Spears - Greatest Hits: My Prerogative... (34 weeks)
Fantasia - The Definition Of ... (5 weeks)
A$AP Rocky - Long.Live.A$AP (79 weeks)
Young The Giant - Home Of The Strange (3 weeks)

Biggest Jumps:
+ 106 Fleetwood Mac - The Very Best Of Fleetwood Mac (#156 - #50)
+ 91 Bee Gees - Number Ones (#185 - #94)
+ 75 Red Hot Chili Peppers - The Getaway (#126 - #51)
+ 71 Jason Derulo - Platinum Hits (#139 - #68)
+ 62 Jake Owen - American Love (#188 - #126)
+ 49 Kelsea Ballerini - The First Time (#90 - #41)
+ 46 Prince And The Revolution - Purple Rain (Soundtrack) (#105 - #59)
+ 38 Kanye West - My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy (#172 - #134)
+ 30 Sia - 1000 Forms Of Fear (#184 - #154)
+ 25 Kanye West - Graduation (#167 - #142)

Biggest Falls:
- 165 Ingrid Michaelson - It Doesn't Have To Make Sense (#19 - #184)
- 105 Juan Gabriel - Los Duo (#88 - #193)
- 92 Glass Animals - How To Be A Human Being (#20 - #112)
- 91 Eagles - Their Greatest Hits 1971-1975 (#76 - #167)
- 90 De La Soul - and the ANONYMOUS NOBODY (#12 - #102)
- 81 The Notorious B.I.G. - Greatest Hits (#80 - #161)
- 76 Nirvana - Nevermind (#109 - #185)
- 56 Juan Gabriel - Los Duo 2 (#56 - #110)
- 45 Lindsey Stirling - Brave Enough (#44 - #89)
- 43 Dolly Parton - Pure & Simple (#34 - #77)
- 43 Dan + Shay - Obsessed (#147 - #190)

Most Weeks In Top 200:
434 weeks: Bob Marley And The Wailers - Legend: The Best Of...
425 weeks: Journey - Journey's Greatest Hits
369 weeks: Guns N' Roses - Greatest Hits
359 weeks: Metallica - Metallica
335 weeks: Nirvana - Nevermind
306 weeks: Eminem - Curtain Call: The Hits
291 weeks: Bruno Mars - Doo-Wops & Hooligans
290 weeks: Adele - 21
285 weeks: Creedence Clearwater Revival - Chronicle The 20 Greatest Hits
284 weeks: Eminem - The Eminem Show

[alexanderao]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:

So for the Top 20 this week = 18% Sales + 35% Airplay + 47% Streaming

Streaming > Airplay > Sales

This is where we were before the formula change earlier this year

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by alexanderao

This is where we were before the formula change earlier this year

I think Streaming's influence can grow a little more before we see a formula change. The week before the last formula was about: 19% Sales + 31% Airplay + 50% Streaming. And in previous weeks, Streaming reached as high as 54%. So there's a lot more Streaming coming up, and more within the next weeks (before Christmas), when sales are going down hell more.

[Thuggin]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:
18. Side To Side = 27% Sales + 1% Airplay + 72% Streaming]

This gives me hope though. It should at least be able to go top ten if radio picks it up.

[Communion]

I just don't get why airplay is doing Ariana so dirty.

I've seen on other forums it suggested that a lot of high-ranking programmers in the US are still Republican / Conservative and that the Donut-Gate/"I hate America" comment still really bothered them, and they like to show off their power in being able to make or break a hit, so I wouldn't be shocked if a few key PDs in important markets are paying her dust out of personal reasons.


Like just let her live, what the ****.

[Ger-55]

Predictions:

1. Closer = (77-81% of lead)
2. Heathens =
3. Cold Water =
4. Cheap Thrills =
5. Don't Let Me Down =
6. Let Me Love You +6
7. This Is What You Came For =
8. Treat You Better +5
9. Ride -3
10. Needed Me -1

11. Send My Love (To Your New Lover) -3
12. We Don't Talk Anymore -2
13. Broccoli +1
14. One Dance -3
15. Into You =
16. Too Good +1
17. Perfect Illusion HOT SHOT DEBUT
18. Side To Side =
19. CAN'T STOP THE FEELING! -3
20. Gold =

24. The Greatest +28
28. Unsteady +1
33. Tiimmy Turner +1
34. Starving +5
41. Setting The World On Fire +8
42. Different For Girls +4
43. Low Life +1
45. Chill Bill +6

[Thuggin]

Originally posted by Communion

I just don't get why airplay is doing Ariana so dirty.

I've seen on other forums it suggested that a lot of high-ranking programmers in the US are still Republican / Conservative and that the Donut-Gate/"I hate America" comment still really bothered them, and they like to show off their power in being able to make or break a hit, so I wouldn't be shocked if a few key PDs in important markets are paying her dust out of personal reasons.


Like just let her live, what the ****.

A Britney radio ban tea.

I remember a lot of stations were tweeting that they would never play another Ariana song again around the time Donutgate happened. I don't know if it's something to be taken that seriously, but still. Hopefully Ariana can gradually win radio back as she gets more and more hits.