[@michael]

Trump Living Large On Donors' Dime

HuffPo annoyingly won't let me copy & paste parts of the article, but the whole thing is pretty damning.

[@michael]

Greta leaving Fox News too

Within the next five years, Fox News is only going to be Breitbart and Alex Jones-type shows. Gotta keep up with the shifting demographics.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Nialler

Ddd @ this condescending tone.
Anyway, most Trumpsters are American according to Clinton National Network their new poll!

Thanks for your swift response, greatly appreciated.

Originally posted by Benzene

How is Trump getting to 270, btw?

Care to respond to this one as well?

[RatedG²]

The CNN poll is an outlier if y'all ain't know by now but keep holding onto that

[ariesjow]

Originally posted by Nialler

They are still rigged. His national lead is much bigger than 2% but the fact that even liberal media admit that he's ahead of Hill after that disastrous campaign... She's truly the worst candidate Dems ever had!

So how precisely does Trump get to 270 in your fantastical opinion? We're over a month past the convention and Trump still hasn't flipped the multitude of swing states he would need to even make November 8th a dogfight.



Here are the current 538 polls-only composites for the key swing states with links to the data:

Colorado
Chance of winning:
Clinton 74.5%
Trump 25.3%


Florida
Chance of winning:
Clinton 60.8%
Trump 39.2%


Iowa
Chance of winning:
Trump 55.2%
Clinton 44.7%


Michigan
Chance of winning:
Clinton 74.6%
Trump 25.3%


Nevada
Chance of winning:
Clinton 66.4%
Trump 33.5%


New Hampshire
Chance of winning:
Clinton 66.4%
Trump 33.5%


North Carolina
Chance of winning:
Clinton 53.4%
Trump 46.6%


Ohio
Chance of winning:
Clinton 56.1%
Trump 43.8%


Pennsylvania
Chance of winning:
Clinton 73.3%
Trump 26.7%


Virginia
Chance of winning:
Clinton 81.5%
Trump 18.4%


Wisconsin
Chance of winning:
71.2%
28.8%

So there you have the likelihood of Trump winning in the swing states with a composite of all the major polling data. Currently, Iowa with only 6 electoral college votes is the sole swing state that's looking good for him.

Now that you are armed with information instead of conjecture, tell us again exactly how a single CNN national poll is indicative of Trump winning in November.

[Skywalker]

So the NRA just endorsed my Democratic nominee for Governor..

[Skywalker]

I'm still going to vote for him but that is pretty damning for me. Gun control is one of my biggest issues. The Republican option is still way worse but now I know how the Bernie stans feel. Gonna have to compromise.

[Benzene]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp201...ories/538.html

Sam Wang retweeting this article DRAGGING Nate Silver.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Benzene

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp201...ories/538.html

Sam Wang retweeting this article DRAGGING Nate Silver.

I love Wang

[Benzene]

Originally posted by RatedG²

I love Wang

He always subtly (or in this case, not so subtly) calls Nate a fame*****. Which I'm honestly inclined to agree with these days.

[Nialler]

Originally posted by Benzene

Thanks for your swift response, greatly appreciated.



Care to respond to this one as well?

Because of the social pressure and media propaganda (I mean just look at ClintonTRL) people now are scared to admit that they're voting for Donald but come this November they will really do a number on y'all. Polls mean nothing.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Nialler

Because of the social pressure and media propaganda (I mean just look at ClintonTRL) people now are scared to admit that they're voting for Donald but come this November they will really do a number on y'all. Polls mean nothing.

Not true. In the primaries he either performed at his poll numbers or underperformed. So if anything the amount of people who admit to wanting to vote for him aren't really going to vote for him.

This whole "silent majority" argument was played out months ago when this was known though

[Skywalker]

Originally posted by Nialler

Because of the social pressure and media propaganda (I mean just look at ClintonTRL) people now are scared to admit that they're voting for Donald but come this November they will really do a number on y'all. Polls mean nothing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[Skywalker]

Tbh.. do you really see more people coming out to vote for Trump than R. Money or McCain? These people are usually racists, they definitely showed up to vote against the first Black President. They haven't been hiding for decades.

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Nialler

Because of the social pressure and media propaganda (I mean just look at ClintonTRL) people now are scared to admit that they're voting for Donald but come this November they will really do a number on y'all. Polls mean nothing.

This wasn't bourne out in the primaries. Trump actually underperformed most of his polling before it became clear he was going to win.

What does this have to do with flipping PA/VA/CO/WI/MI though?

[Bloo]

People freaking out over the CNN poll need to realize that national polls mean nothing. State-by-state polls are all that matter for the GE. If electoral votes were allocated proportionally, then national polls would actually be important. But, since that's not the case, state polling is all we should be concerned with.

[Yndda]

how did he gain?

[King Maxx]

Hillary bought a Georgia ad buy.

"Sacrifice" is the 1st ad to be run there.

[Communion]

Originally posted by Yndda

how did he gain?

SurveyMonkey polls in several swing states were added.

All of them have Johnson really high (11-13%) but that seems weird. They probably sampled too many whites or too many Johnson supporters in general, and it had more of an affect on Clinton's lead than Trump.

[King Maxx]

Originally posted by Nialler

Because of the social pressure and media propaganda (I mean just look at ClintonTRL) people now are scared to admit that they're voting for Donald but come this November they will really do a number on y'all. Polls mean nothing.

You lost your argument when u said polls mean nothing.

As an American, I can tell you there are many Clinton fans. You can believe what u want, but I know the real tea. And stop trying to force Trump on us. We don't want that bigotry in this country. The UK can have that. U see where them stocks went.