| |
Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
Member Since: 3/18/2012
Posts: 15,751
|
Excited for the protestors at the DNC. The truth must come out and corruptness will be called out. There is no place to hide y'all
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Hey Gurl Hey
Excited for the protestors at the DNC. The truth must come out and corruptness will be called out. There is no place to hide y'all
|
I can never tell if you are just trolling or being serious. 
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/18/2012
Posts: 15,751
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Skywalker
I can never tell if you are just trolling or being serious. |
lol I'm serious. What would I gain from trolling? I do not support the 2 party process and I sure don't support T_____ or H______ (I don't want to even type their names because they disgust me) .
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
Interesting article, thanks for posting!
-
Yikes @ Kaine that speech. X'd the tab when he started yelling in Spanish.
I guess i'll never like him, which is fine.
|
You're obviously blindly biased against Hillary and anyone she would have picked as VP. The fact that you didn't even give him a shot and are criticizing him just for speaking Spanish is proof enough of that.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
|
Just a month ago, Trump had a 20% of becoming president according to Five Thirty Eight. Now he's at 42%. 
I just have a bad feeling Trump is going to win. The Clinton-Kaine ticket is perfect on paper, but it still doesn't reflect the anger that's overtaken America. I'm scared. 
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
|
|
|
|
|
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
|
I think in the end Trump will win. Republicans always do better in the actual election than the polls plus he's been rising everywhere. I think if another terrorist attack happens on American soil, Trump has 100% chance of winning. If not, I'd say around 60%
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Just a month ago, Trump had a 20% of becoming president according to Five Thirty Eight. Now he's at 42%.
I just have a bad feeling Trump is going to win. The Clinton-Kaine ticket is perfect on paper, but it still doesn't reflect the anger that's overtaken America. I'm scared. |
Those models are based on state polling, of which there isn't much right now. The Upshot has it at 74%. But honestly these models aren't going to be truly predictive until September.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
|
That was before the 47% video came out, which is ultimately what hurt him as well as the second and third debate performances.
But you can't compare Romney to Trump. Just as you can't compare Clinton to Obama.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
|
Also I'm surprised Hillary isn't taking more advantage of Bill on the main stage. Most of his campaigns for her were low key during the primary. I assume he'll be more active after the convention but he's still a popular former president and can probably make the case for her better than anyone else.
Then again, he's also known to make a lot of gaffes.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
That was before the 47% video came out, which is ultimately what hurt him as well as the second and third debate performances.
But you can't compare Romney to Trump. Just as you can't compare Clinton to Obama.
|
I agree, though I'm just saying that Michael Moore has always been a doom and gloom emo prog.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Also I'm surprised Hillary isn't taking more advantage of Bill on the main stage. Most of his campaigns for her were low key during the primary. I assume he'll be more active after the convention but he's still a popular former president and can probably make the case for her better than anyone else.
Then again, he's also known to make a lot of gaffes.
|
Bill has been...less than effective this time around. I'm sure he'll speak at the convention though, his 2012 speech was a huge part of Obama getting reelected.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Just changed my volunteer shift to Thursday! I'll be at the arena on the big day! 
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 10/17/2009
Posts: 5,464
|
To the asinine poster above who stated that republicans always do better than polling indicates, that's baseless and false. Romney did better in the polls than he did on Election Day, for example. Your posts show a continual lack of knowledge and lack of basis in reality.
And Hillary's campaign hasn't even fully kicked into gear yet. The convention hasn't even happened yet and that will give her a big boost. And after the convention, and until Election Day, she's going to have Bill, Obama, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Kaine, Michelle, and more, crisscrossing the country speaking on her behalf. And she has a gigantic financial advantage (she's expected to raise well over a billion dollars, while Trump is super unlikely to hit even 500 million), the biggest and most sophisticated get out the vote operation and data analytics operation in history, even better and more sophisticated that Obama's historic campaign apparatuses. Trump isn't investing much of anything at all in campaign infrastructure, a ground game, or a data analytics operation. And she has an inherent electoral college advantage. We can't get complacent, but Trump is still pretty unlikely to win when you look at the big picture.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Quote:
Originally posted by ShineOverShadow
To the asinine poster above who stated that republicans always do better than polling indicates, that's baseless and false. Romney did better in the polls than he did on Election Day, for example. Your posts show a continual lack of knowledge and lack of basis in reality.
And Hillary's campaign hasn't even fully kicked into gear yet. The convention hasn't even happened yet and that will give her a big boost. And after the convention, and until Election Day, she's going to have Bill, Obama, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Kaine, Michelle, and more, crisscrossing the country speaking on her behalf. And she has a gigantic financial advantage (she's expected to raise well over a billion dollars, while Trump is super unlikely to hit even 500 million), the biggest and most sophisticated get out the vote operation and data analytics operation in history, even better and more sophisticated that Obama's historic campaign apparatuses. Trump isn't investing much of anything at all in campaign infrastructure, a ground game, or a data analytics operation. And she has an inherent electoral college advantage. We can't get complacent, but Trump is still pretty unlikely to win when you look at the big picture.
|
Ooh thanks for pointing the GOP polling thing out, I missed that. Historically Dems outperform polling in presidential years, Republicans in midterm years. I understand handwringing is needed for clicks but some of the concern trolling.
Nothing is in tbe bag because there's still over 3 months to go. But as you said, Dems have a built in electoral advantage.
|
|
|
|
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
|
Quote:
Originally posted by ShineOverShadow
To the asinine poster above who stated that republicans always do better than polling indicates, that's baseless and false. Romney did better in the polls than he did on Election Day, for example. Your posts show a continual lack of knowledge and lack of basis in reality.
And Hillary's campaign hasn't even fully kicked into gear yet. The convention hasn't even happened yet and that will give her a big boost. And after the convention, and until Election Day, she's going to have Bill, Obama, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Kaine, Michelle, and more, crisscrossing the country speaking on her behalf. And she has a gigantic financial advantage (she's expected to raise well over a billion dollars, while Trump is super unlikely to hit even 500 million), the biggest and most sophisticated get out the vote operation and data analytics operation in history, even better and more sophisticated that Obama's historic campaign apparatuses. Trump isn't investing much of anything at all in campaign infrastructure, a ground game, or a data analytics operation. And she has an inherent electoral college advantage. We can't get complacent, but Trump is still pretty unlikely to win when you look at the big picture.
|
Why do you not want to have a logical discussion with someone who shares a different worldview? Kindness and collaboration, discussion from both sides is what benefits everyone. Romney's polls from this stage in 2012 were lower than where he ended up in the final elections.
I'm very knowledgeable - from all three viewpoints - and wound up in the T200 debaters in the nation for my performance in Lincoln Douglas debate. All of my posts have been based on facts or my moral view/experiences based on my real life experience as an atheist Arizonan who has experienced wealth and poverty, going to a private university on full scholarship, with a Muslim girlfriend.
You have to keep in mind I know all this about Hillary, I would argue for her against a Trump proponent. However, on ATRL there is essentially only Hillary supporters because you bitch and moan about every contrary viewpoint to your own so us other supporters just dip out.
|
|
|
|
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Ooh thanks for pointing the GOP polling thing out, I missed that. Historically Dems outperform polling in presidential years, Republicans in midterm years. I understand handwringing is needed for clicks but some of the concern trolling.
Nothing is in tbe bag because there's still over 3 months to go. But as you said, Dems have a built in electoral advantage. |
A massive one  3 of the 5 biggest states are a lock for them, while only 1 for the Reps (Florida being swing)
A Republican victory is always an uphill victory, if Hillary can lock down Ohio and Florida she can win with only a single other swing or leaning state. I'm interested to see how she'll combat Trump's efforts in those two states.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
|
Quote:
Originally posted by ShineOverShadow
To the asinine poster above who stated that republicans always do better than polling indicates, that's baseless and false. Romney did better in the polls than he did on Election Day, for example. Your posts show a continual lack of knowledge and lack of basis in reality.
And Hillary's campaign hasn't even fully kicked into gear yet. The convention hasn't even happened yet and that will give her a big boost. And after the convention, and until Election Day, she's going to have Bill, Obama, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Kaine, Michelle, and more, crisscrossing the country speaking on her behalf. And she has a gigantic financial advantage (she's expected to raise well over a billion dollars, while Trump is super unlikely to hit even 500 million), the biggest and most sophisticated get out the vote operation and data analytics operation in history, even better and more sophisticated that Obama's historic campaign apparatuses. Trump isn't investing much of anything at all in campaign infrastructure, a ground game, or a data analytics operation. And she has an inherent electoral college advantage. We can't get complacent, but Trump is still pretty unlikely to win when you look at the big picture.
|
The media covering every single thing Trump says and/or does makes money not that big of an issue in this campaign, unfortunately. Obviously it counts but not as much as it did in previous elections. Any money lost is made up with the free media coverage he gets.
Also lack of ground game didn't stop him from winning the primaries. I agree with you overall, but I just feel like all of the traditional rules of an election don't matter this time around. If you look at the map from 2012, all Trump really needs is the rust belt and NH and he'll win. Is it likely? No. But it's very possible.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
A massive one 3 of the 5 biggest states are a lock for them, while only 1 for the Reps (Florida being swing)
A Republican victory is always an uphill victory, if Hillary can lock down Ohio and Florida she can win with only a single other swing or leaning state. I'm interested to see how she'll combat Trump's efforts in those two states. |
She really just needs one. FL is the key. If she wins FL it's basically impossible to come up with a plausible winning scenario for Trump.
|
|
|
|
|
|
