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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016
Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Trump is going to win this November. I already know it. Dems are running a weak campaign against him. They're trying to run a conventional campaign and that's just not going to work against him. Maybe it's too early to tell but if this is a preview of the campaign Hillary's going to run then you can already call it. I'd bet money Trump won't even debate her this fall, Clinton's only chance at really taking him down.
Not to mention, the democratic convention is going to be a mess. Even if Bernie concedes to Hillary and encourages his supporters to vote for her, it's still going to be a mess and make the party look divided.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Trump is going to win this November. I already know it. Dems are running a weak campaign against him. They're trying to run a conventional campaign and that's just not going to work against him. Maybe it's too early to tell but if this is a preview of the campaign Hillary's going to run then you can already call it. I'd bet money Trump won't even debate her this fall, Clinton's only chance at really taking him down.
Not to mention, the democratic convention is going to be a mess. Even if Bernie concedes to Hillary and encourages his supporters to vote for her, it's still going to be a mess and make the party look divided.
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The campaign against him is not and WILL not be weak in the slightest. Moreover, you can't draw the conclusion that a conventional Democratic campaign can't handle him because GOP ones couldn't.
If you can already call it, I would hope you are calling it for the woman who is polling ahead and has the demographic advantage.
The convention is the place where we hope to unify. The 2008 primary was more divisive and much closer - and we made it out of that convention more than fine, winning the general handily.
Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I feel like if we were to go into the general with that mindset and attitude, we would lose. So I refuse to do it - especially when the reality is far brighter than you have portrayed.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
The campaign against him is not and WILL not be weak in the slightest. Moreover, you can't draw the conclusion that a conventional Democratic campaign can't handle him because GOP ones couldn't.
If you can already call it, I would hope you are calling it for the woman who is polling ahead and has the demographic advantage.
The convention is the place where we hope to unify. The 2008 primary was more divisive and much closer - and we made it out of that convention more than fine, winning the general handily.
Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I feel like if we were to go into the general with that mindset and attitude, we would lose. So I refuse to do it - especially when the reality is far brighter than you have portrayed.
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Sorry but it is a weak campaign. Everything they've thrown at him, he's managed to overshadow with something else. And that's what he'll continue to do. He's dominated the media coverage, whereas it feels like Hillary's barely been covered at all. Is it the media's fault? Yes, but it doesn't change the fact that Trump is able to fight off any attack by saying something that dominates the headlines instead. Who's talking about his tax returns anymore? He's mangling to take the spotlight off of it. Now matter how many times dems bring it up, he'll just find a way to overshadow it. That's why a conventional campaign isn't going to work this year.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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It will work fine. Relax.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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I was playing around on 270towin.
If we give them both the Same-Since-2000 states, and then give her Iowa, Nevada and Florida, she takes it. Or we could make Florida go red and give her Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico. And then who knows what would happen if she actually too GA.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Reminder: Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told California voters Friday that he can solve their water crisis, declaring that: "There is no drought."
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Sorry but it is a weak campaign. Everything they've thrown at him, he's managed to overshadow with something else. And that's what he'll continue to do. He's dominated the media coverage, whereas it feels like Hillary's barely been covered at all. Is it the media's fault? Yes, but it doesn't change the fact that Trump is able to fight off any attack by saying something that dominates the headlines instead. Who's talking about his tax returns anymore? He's mangling to take the spotlight off of it. Now matter how many times dems bring it up, he'll just find a way to overshadow it. That's why a conventional campaign isn't going to work this year.
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I'm sorry, I didn't want to say it this way, but that's a bunch of baloney. Not all media attention is good media attention - it doesn't all make his numbers and chances go up. He's been completely unable to refute any of Warren's attacks and his nicknames for her have done nothing. He's incentivizing minority voters to register and vote Democratic, as we have seen in California (I'm relatively certain this holds true in states that are not Democratic strongholds). His unfavorables are even higher than Hillary's, and hers are at their peak thanks to angry Sanders supporters who will come back into the fold. Asian Americans, statistically speaking, hate him and love Hillary. African American voters don't even need to be explained when people are talking about her winning them 95-5. Hillary is still polling more than 4 points ahead on average at probably the hardest time of the campaign.
There's not much solid evidence to prove that his constant media presence is helping him any more. Like anyone else, Trump has a ceiling.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Clinton demands Trump releases his taxes. Trump brings up Vince Foster. What does the media end up talking about more in the end? Vince Foster.
Clinton brings up Trump's comments on women and the NYT runs a story on his past behavior. Trump brings up Bill's past and calls Hillary an enabler. What did the media talk more about in the end? Trump's comments about Bill.
Hillary doesn't know how to dominate the news cycle. And yes, it's going to matter this year. All of that free press won the republican nomination for Trump and it could very well win him the GE.
Warren could help Clinton bring enthusiasm and most of Bernie's supporters over to her but she'll end up overshadowing Clinton and I don't know if she'll want that. Trump will go for an experienced politician that makes voters more comfortable voting for him. It's not hard to see how it'll likely go.
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Member Since: 11/13/2009
Posts: 25,902
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I can't keep up with these threads, but if anyone has any sort of opinion on Jill Stein as a Plan B for Bernie supporters, message me!
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Yes and he will be his own worst enemy.. the press is eager to knock him down. If anything, it'd be stupid of Hillary to try going after him the same way he goes after other people. Bernie would look stupid too. Just like Jeb and Marco Rubio looked stupid. Elizabeth Warren is the only one who hasn't been but that's because she is using actual rhetoric and facts. That's what Hillary needs to do. Not stoop to his level.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
I'm sorry, I didn't want to say it this way, but that's a bunch of baloney. Not all media attention is good media attention - it doesn't all make his numbers and chances go up. He's been completely unable to refute any of Warren's attacks and his nicknames for her have done nothing. He's incentivizing minority voters to register and vote Democratic, as we have seen in California (I'm relatively certain this holds true in states that are not Democratic strongholds). His unfavorables are even higher than Hillary's, and hers are at their peak thanks to angry Sanders supporters who will come back into the fold. Asian Americans, statistically speaking, hate him and love Hillary. African American voters don't even need to be explained when people are talking about her winning them 95-5. Hillary is still polling more than 4 points ahead on average at probably the hardest time of the campaign.
There's not much solid evidence to prove that his constant media presence is helping him any more. Like anyone else, Trump has a ceiling.
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Look at the latest poll numbers.  You're underestimating Trump WAY too much. That's ultimately going to be dems undoing. Thinking that Hillary has it in the bag because of Trump's unfavorables, etc when Hillary's are just as bad.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Yes, the candidate with a record number of women who hate him, the candidate who wants to ban all Muslims, the candidate who wants to kick out Hispanic immigrants and build a wall around the border, the candidate who wants supreme court justices that are in favoring of overturning Roe v Wade is going to have a staggering win. There's no hope. We should all give up because we can't face the white male vote. Please. We are all gonna be fighting till the very end.
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 25,228
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Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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I would imagine the one calling Mexicans rapists, calling for a Muslim ban and calling Elizabeth Warren "Pocahontas" would dominate the news cycle. He's an outrageous guy. He does outrageous things and that's why he's in the news. Part of the reason Hillary isn't "dominating the news cycle" is because you still have Bernie being a stunt queen.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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You really do not think the people Trump has offended won't vote? Seriously?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
Look at the latest poll numbers. You're underestimating Trump WAY too much. That's ultimately going to be dems undoing. Thinking that Hillary has it in the bag because of Trump's unfavorables, etc when Hillary's are just as bad. |
Why don't YOU take a look at the latest poll numbers? Please don't act as if I don't do all my research before posting.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Hispanics HATE Trump. Blacks hate him even more. He has a bad, but not ruined, relationship with women.
If Hillary galvanizes her own party and a percentage of Independents he has pushed away, she'll win. It shouldn't be hard. People actually take Trump as a threat, but I don't, and this media talk isn't convincing me.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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"There is no drought" and "equip all our allies with nuclear weapons" will not cut it when we get to October for example. It just simply won't. Not enough to win.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
Hispanics HATE Trump. Blacks hate him even more. He has a bad, but not ruined, relationship with women.
If Hillary galvanizes her own party and a percentage of Independents he has pushed away, she'll win. It shouldn't be hard. People actually take Trump as a threat, but I don't, and this media talk isn't convincing me.
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Nope. Women despise him.
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This year’s presidential election has the potential to have the largest partisan gender voting gap in modern elections. This chart shows how big that gender gap has been in past elections. It shows women’s partisan gap minus mens — so in 2012, when women preferred Obama by 11 points and men preferred Romney by 7 points, that’s a 18-point gap. The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows a 22-point gap between women and men on Clinton and Trump.
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But this loss of women voters — and a potential decrease with white women in particular — signals some big weaknesses for Trump. The 2012 election is a great point of comparison here. Though Mitt Romney lost women altogether by 11 points in 2012, he won white women, 56 to 42. In that NBC/WSJ poll, Trump currently leads among white women by only 4 points, 46 to 42.
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http://www.npr.org/2016/05/26/479319...-than-60-years
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