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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (April 17-24, 2016)
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 12/7/2008
Posts: 87,284
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
Prince going #1 next week would be insane. If PR sells 500k will it hit #1???
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yes
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
Prince going #1 next week would be insane. If PR sells 500k will it hit #1???
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Depends on Youtube and what Panda does, but he needs ~400k to go #1.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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With early predictions I have Prince at #1 2 and 3 with PR, LRC, and WDC with Panda at #4, Kiss at #5, and One Dance at #6  depends on how sales hold up
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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What formula are y'all using for predictions? Haven't updated mine in a year
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
With early predictions I have Prince at #1 2 and 3 with PR, LRC, and WDC with Panda at #4, Kiss at #5, and One Dance at #6 depends on how sales hold up |
Um yeah that's certainly impossible. Purple Rain, Panda, One Dance will be the top 3, just not sure about the order. But he could have multiple songs in the top 10 for sure.
Formula I currently use is sales / 1,000 + airplay / 1,050,000 + streams / 120,000
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Member Since: 12/22/2011
Posts: 55,626
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Well, how many of Prince's songs can rechart.
back in the 80s they had a different methodology so i'm not sure how many songs went recurrent after 20 weeks.
Many big hits charted between 15-20 weeks before falling off of the charts
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
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Quote:
Originally posted by slw84
Well, how many of Prince's songs can rechart.
back in the 80s they had a different methodology so i'm not sure how many songs went recurrent after 20 weeks.
Many big hits charted between 15-20 weeks before falling off of the charts
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Any song that has charted on the Hot 100 and is like 20 years old is recurrent. There won't be any Prince song that is older than 2 years on the Hot 100 below #50.
I will need to look into that for next week what are new songs 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by simmnfierzig
Um yeah that's certainly impossible. Purple Rain, Panda, One Dance will be the top 3, just not sure about the order. But he could have multiple songs in the top 10 for sure.
Formula I currently use is sales / 1,000 + airplay / 1,050,000 + streams / 120,000
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Purple Rain
500,000
40 million
10 million
500 + 38 + 83 = 621
Little Red Corvet
375,000
20 million
5 million
375 + 19 + 41 = 435
Panda
100,000
50 million
30 million
105 + 47 + 250 = 402
If LRC sells 75% of Purple Rain and Purple Rain indeed sells 500k with all its versions combined (which is super likely) then it could actually beat Panda.
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Member Since: 12/22/2011
Posts: 55,626
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
Purple Rain
500,000
40 million
10 million
500 + 38 + 83 = 621
Little Red Corvet
375,000
20 million
5 million
375 + 19 + 41 = 435
Panda
100,000
50 million
30 million
105 + 47 + 250 = 402
If LRC sells 75% of Purple Rain and Purple Rain indeed sells 500k with all its versions combined (which is super likely) then it could actually beat Panda. |
I'm ready...
Legends should always win.
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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Your estimates look very high to me.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by fridayteenage
Your estimates look very high to me.
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They're high if you only look at one version of the song. Thing is, he has four versions of LRC and Purple Rain in the Top 100 If Panda is selling 100k next week and Purple Rain right now is outselling it one-to-six with only the #1 version, it can drop 50% and still sell 500k next week. If LRC remains proportional throughout the week it will sell 375k. Thus Prince would get the #1 and #2 song next week.
Regardless, there is no competition for Purple Rain. It's going #1 no matter what.
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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I mean, Whitney and MJ didn't go to 400k, let alone 500k. In better sales atmospheres.
The iTunes dominance is unprecedented, yes, but still.
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Member Since: 4/3/2014
Posts: 5,036
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400k combined all version for Purple Rain looks possible and not that strange or something. Seriously.
And if he has more then 2 songs in top 10 it would be... oh seriusly i'm shocked
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Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 1,882
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Work-Panda-Purple Rain (hopefully)
Damn, what a year
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 12/7/2008
Posts: 87,284
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Member Since: 3/31/2012
Posts: 43,847
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Praying Purple Rain hits #1
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/1/2012
Posts: 15,668
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Quote:
Originally posted by ℐℯίɓℴу
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Based on 12 hours nnn
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Member Since: 4/12/2011
Posts: 3,256
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Quote:
Originally posted by Auris
They're high if you only look at one version of the song. Thing is, he has four versions of LRC and Purple Rain in the Top 100 If Panda is selling 100k next week and Purple Rain right now is outselling it one-to-six with only the #1 version, it can drop 50% and still sell 500k next week. If LRC remains proportional throughout the week it will sell 375k. Thus Prince would get the #1 and #2 song next week.
Regardless, there is no competition for Purple Rain. It's going #1 no matter what. |
No it is not... Sit down
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by fridayteenage
I mean, Whitney and MJ didn't go to 400k, let alone 500k. In better sales atmospheres.
The iTunes dominance is unprecedented, yes, but still.
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Prince's music is a lot harder to obtain than theirs
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:
1. Work = 15% Sales + 26% Airplay + 59% Streaming
2. Panda = 25% Sales + 9% Airplay + 66% Streaming
3. 7 Years = 29% Sales + 30% Airplay + 41% Streaming
4. NO = 37% Sales + 31% Airplay + 32% Streaming
5. PILLOWTALK = 24% Sales + 33% Airplay + 43% Streaming
6. I Took A Pill In Ibiza = 28% Sales + 34% Airplay + 38% Streaming
7. Work From Home = 29% Sales + 24% Airplay + 47% Streaming
8. Love Yourself = 16% Sales + 52% Airplay + 32% Streaming
9. Cake By The Ocean = 19% Sales + 43% Airplay + 38% Streaming
10. Me, Myself & I = 17% Sales + 41% Airplay + 42% Streaming
11. Stressed Out = 16% Sales + 45% Airplay + 39% Streaming
12. My House = 28% Sales + 37% Airplay + 35% Streaming
13. One Dance = 53% Sales + 14% Airplay + 33% Streaming
14. Dangerous Woman = 31% Sales + 25% Airplay + 44% Streaming
15. Never Forget You = 29% Sales + 32% Airplay + 39% Streaming
16. Sorry = 12% Sales + 39% Airplay + 49% Streaming
17. Don't Let Me Down = 33% Sales + 22% Airplay + 45% Streaming
18. 2 Phones = 21% Sales + 19% Airplay + 60% Streaming
19. Pop Style = 56% Sales + 4% Airplay + 40% Streaming
20. oui = 16% Sales + 30% Airplay + 54% Streaming
So for the Top 20 this week = 27% Sales + 29% Airplay + 44% Streaming
Streaming > Airplay > Sales
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