Quote:
Originally posted by Monster Megamind
Now guys tell me... It's there and chance of hillary attaining majority just by pledged delegates by July before convention?
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Majority of pledged delegates of majority of all delegates but beating that number by pledged only?
If it's the first one then yes. You only need 2,026 for a majority of pledged delegates and because it's a two person race it's actually impossible for one of them not to have that majority by the convention time (if there are no uncommitted delegates). If there are some then it's nearly impossible but not impossible
If you mean a majority of overall delegates (2,383) then yes. The Sanders Camp keeps saying it's not possible but in fact it is. Just very difficult.
There are 1467 pledged delegates left (1646 pledged and unpledged left) and she has an estimated 1428 pledged delegates. To reach 2,383 on them alone she needs 955 pledged delegates. 955 out of the remaining 1467 is about 65% of the pledged delegates remaining. Definitely within reach but not likely at all.
Sanders on the other hand has an estimated 1,151 delegates and needs 1,232 of the remaining pledged to reach 2,383 (about 84% of the remaining pledged). So technically possible for him but for that to happen he's gonna need to beat her by near impossible margins (I'm talking like by 25+ on CA, stealing the next 5 states by 10 points each, etc). Virtually impossible for him
Because 15% of the total delegates are supers it's very hard in a moderately contested democratic primary to get the number on pledged alone
if even
