[Wafflecakes]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Looks like he will win all 3 with near landslide numbers

Are there results coming in from Hawaii?

NYT still showing 0%.


I don't expect Hillary to win Hawaii, but I don't expect her to lose that badly. Hawaii isn't pasty white, so not exactly prime Bernie territory.

[Mitch.]

Is it actually possible we have a race on our hands?

Or am I just getting swept up in #BernieFever?

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Wafflecakes

Are there results coming in from Hawaii?

NYT still showing 0%.


I don't expect Hillary to win Hawaii, but I don't expect her to lose that badly. Hawaii isn't pasty white, so not exactly prime Bernie territory.

Nope but trust me, she severely underperforms in caucuses

Polls had her +10 a week before Kansas. She gets wrecked by 30

Polls had Bernie +7 in CO. He beats her by 40.

Polls had them tied (or her leading in single digits) in last MN poll. She gets trounced by same margin as CO

Utah polls had one of the candidates (maybe Clinton) leading in single digits, she loses by 50

Idaho had them tied, she loses by 50

Like she's gonna get wrecked in Hawaii too. But luckily it has like 25 delegates and as long as she remains viable she'll snatch a cute amount

[MAKSIM]

Not to fret. We all knew Bernie was taking these states, just not by such large margins. What this should teach Hillary is that she can't let herself be outspent by huge margins in these states. I imagine NY is gonna have a huge huge ad blitz and push. Bernie has been underperforming the whole first half, so he will need to continue to do these numbers from now until California in order to win. Hillarys team simply needs to start realizing their not at the general yet and need to spend money and do state visits.

[Wafflecakes]

Originally posted by Mitch.

Is it actually possible we have a race on our hands?

Or am I just getting swept up in #BernieFever?

The latter.

Today was predicted to be a Bernie day LONG before Hillary swept to her huge delegate lead.

It doesn't change the fact that Hillary is strongly favored in NY and California, and Bernie must win both by large margins to have a shot.



This makes it more interesting, but it doesn't change the inevitability of Clinton.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Mitch.

Is it actually possible we have a race on our hands?

Or am I just getting swept up in #BernieFever?

If we do (which is possible) we won't know. We'll have to wait until Maryland and New York. If polls tighten severely and has them near even ground, then we have a race. But polls do not, at the moment, show that. So it's wrapped up as long as she churns out her voters

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Mitch.

Is it actually possible we have a race on our hands?

Or am I just getting swept up in #BernieFever?

The second one.

[Wonderland]

Originally posted by RatedG²

If we do (which is possible) we won't know. We'll have to wait until Maryland and New York. If polls tighten severely and has them near even ground, then we have a race. But polls do not, at the moment, show that. So it's wrapped up as long as she churns out her voters

Hillary better get the Real Housewives out doing promo for her too

[Wonderland]

I mean Hillary still has the upper hand for sure, but these victories do give Sanders a good platform to push his campaign and give voters faith in these states he's behind in

[Wafflecakes]

Do you know what would be hillarious?

If Bernie turns it all around and proves the polls wrong and wins NY and Cal...... only to still lose the delegate race. It is extremely possible.

Right now Hillary is likely to win 60-40 in both. He could narrow it to 50-50, or even 45-55..... but that still gives the nomination to Hillary.

[Wonderland]

What kind of margin would Bernie have to win NY and Cali by to be in with a shot? Would 60-40 do it or does he need to push into the 70s?

[Wafflecakes]

Originally posted by Wonderland

I mean Hillary still has the upper hand for sure, but these victories do give Sanders a good platform to push his campaign and give voters faith in these states he's behind in

It isn't just an upper hand. It is a crushing lead.


As someone else said, no Dem has EVER come back from a delegate deficit of 100+.... and Bernie is losing by over 300.

It just ain't happening.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Wonderland

I mean Hillary still has the upper hand for sure, but these victories do give Sanders a good platform to push his campaign and give voters faith in these states he's behind in

Yeah I agree with this. The more delegates he has the better his platform argument becomes. And he's still technically in this race so he's hoping the momentum gained from the western states give him the needed edge to beat Hillary in the east

But from my political understanding, western momentum does not translate similarly to momentum in the east. I've said the same about New Hampshire to Nevada (and I was right then) so there's still that. But this will give him resources like money to spend on ads in New York et al

[Wonderland]

Originally posted by RatedG²

Yeah I agree with this. The more delegates he has the better his platform argument becomes. And he's still technically in this race so he's hoping the momentum gained from the western states give him the needed edge to beat Hillary in the east

But from my political understanding, western momentum does not translate similarly to momentum in the east. I've said the same about New Hampshire to Nevada (and I was right then) so there's still that. But this will give him resources like money to spend on ads in New York et al

And that all important internet delusion momentum too

[Bey Admired]

Originally posted by Wafflecakes

It isn't just an upper hand. It is a crushing lead.


As someone else said, no Dem has EVER come back from a delegate deficit of 100+.... and Bernie is losing by over 300.

It just ain't happening.

I think we all understand that, but there's a first time for everything. Hillary and her supporters' message that she's already got it in the bag is only going to keep hurting Hillary. It just makes people think Hillary's got it and there's no need to go out and vote for her. It also doesn't help that Bernie is outspending Hillary by massive amounts in a lot of the States, due to Hillary trying to save money for the GE. Complacency at this point is the worst mistake Hillary's campaign could make. It's time to go all out on New York.

[HeyMr.DJ]

This was Bernie's peak.

[Benzene]

Momentum is a myth. Voters in, say, PA, are just fundamentally different than voters in WA. Just like how the supposed momentum from NH didn't mean diddly in NV or SC, or even how the supposed momentum from MI didn't do jack squat in neighboring OH.

[Wafflecakes]

Originally posted by Benzene

Momentum is a myth. Voters in, say, PA, are just fundamentally different than voters in WA. Just like how the supposed momentum from NH didn't mean diddly in NV or SC, or even how the supposed momentum from MI didn't do jack squat in neighboring OH.

To be fair, the Michigan thing wasn't real momentum. He was likely leading there the whole time.

Polls were flawed.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Wonderland

What kind of margin would Bernie have to win NY and Cali by to be in with a shot? Would 60-40 do it or does he need to push into the 70s?

He needs to win 62% of all future pledged delegates to lead her in pledged delegates. Let me do some math

2,092 still up for grabs. He'll need to nab 1,297 to overtake her. 247 in NY and 475 in CA. He'll need to win both states with about 60% of the vote. Anything under and he'd need to severely overperforming (because those states are smaller) in places like PA and NJ (with about 75-80 percent).

[Benzene]

Originally posted by Wonderland

What kind of margin would Bernie have to win NY and Cali by to be in with a shot? Would 60-40 do it or does he need to push into the 70s?

http://demrace.com/

You can simulate the rest of the race.