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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Is there another dem-debate tomorrow?!?!? That's what they said on MSNBC a few mins ago!!??
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
Is there another dem-debate tomorrow?!?!? That's what they said on MSNBC a few mins ago!!??
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Yeah I think so. I think it's unnecessary to have two debates so close together though
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
Yeah I think so. I think it's unnecessary to have two debates so close together though
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Especially when after tonight, we'll already know who the winner is 
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
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Unfortunately, that's highly unlikely.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by TikiMiss
general election polls this far out are not trustworthy.
But I expect Trump to become a very presidential sounding moderate if he gets the nomination. He's going to null the deport Muslims idea, and he's going to talk about this and that program to get minority votes + more white votes. The guy is willing to sell his children to win.
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Actually they are. 2008 and 2012 polls were quite accurate. Just look in Realclearpolitics. It's shows that who wins in November has more to do with structural issues, e.g. Gas prices, unemployment rate, wage growth, safety of the country, etc than it has to do with individual candidates, debates, or "gaffes".
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Member Since: 8/2/2010
Posts: 12,507
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2012 Polls weren't accurate. That's why Romney didnt even have a concession speech ready, he and his team AND the polls (not Nate Silver) showed he was winning.
GE matchup polls are pointless, although state by state matchups are more realiable. I'll wait for Nate Silver's numbers, once the nominees are choosen.
But the Moody indicator, that has been right on every election since the 70's, shows a Democrat is going to win.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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If you want a good read on the on-going relationship that The Clintons have with the black community, explaining how that established rapport has paid dividends for them. Yes, the article does talk about the '94 Violent Crime Bill and the Welfare Reform Bill.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...13707?lo=ap_d2
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Karl Rove's MELTDOWN on Fox when Megyn Kelly called it for Obama in 2012. 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 22,001
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I asked this yesterday but no one responded... If trump / Clinton win Florida, Michigan, and Ohio is the nomination basically on the lock for both sides
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 3,292
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Quote:
Originally posted by HausofNiko
I asked this yesterday but no one responded... If trump / Clinton win Florida, Michigan, and Ohio is the nomination basically on the lock for both sides
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I'm not 100% sure but I believe someone said that for him to continue on his current trajectory, he would need to strongly and decisively win New York (Hillary's state) and California (which has a very strong base for both of them) to secure the nomination. Who knows with Trump, lol, I think things are looking good with him but there is also word that more Senators are going to be endorsing Cruz and "falling in line." And then there is there chance of a Brokered Convention lol.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by HausofNiko
I asked this yesterday but no one responded... If trump / Clinton win Florida, Michigan, and Ohio is the nomination basically on the lock for both sides
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Democratic Side: Yes.
Hillary currently leads by 200 delegates. Of the remaining states, California (475), New York (247), Florida (214), Pennsylvania (189), Illinois (156), Michigan (130), New Jersey (126), Washington (102) and North Carolina (107) are the remaining states that allocate 100+ delegates. On March 15, Florida (246); Illinois (182); North Carolina (121); Ohio (159) all vote. If Clinton wins these states, even by a small margin, thus expanding her 200 delegate lead, it is near impossible for Bernie to come back, given Hillary's home-state advantage in NY, AA population in California, and the proportional delegate system used by the Democrats.
Republican Side: No, but surely makes the case.
Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states. Trump winning both will extend his 100 delegate lead by another 150. However, the Republican delegate system still leaves it possible for Trump to not be able to meet the minimum delegate total (50%), and thus results in a convention gridlock. National polls show Trumps lead shrinking, and Cruz had made some mighty gains over the weekend. Moreover, if he wins Florida and Ohio, Rubio and Kasich will drop out, making it a 2-man race. That benefits Cruz, who will launch a mightier challenge and divide the delegates better.
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Member Since: 8/2/2010
Posts: 12,507
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Quote:
Originally posted by HausofNiko
I asked this yesterday but no one responded... If trump / Clinton win Florida, Michigan, and Ohio is the nomination basically on the lock for both sides
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For Dems, basically, but some people hate math and theyll probably continue to waste the parties time amd money and stay in. Sanders would have to beat Hillary by 10pts in every state left, to win the nomination.
The Dems award delegates proportionally, which makes it hard for him to catch up. Much in the same way it made it hard for Hillary to catch up in 07, and she was only behind by 100 delegates, not 200 like Bernie.
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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What if Kasich and Rubio drop out, Cruz makes Rubio his VP nominee and vows to nominate Kasich as his SoS 
I honestly feel like the establishment should go with that plan if they wanna end Trump once and for all.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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I wonder who these Republicans are that are voting out in record numbers. All the Republicans I know are pissed as **** that Trump and Cruz are hijacking their party. My uncle that was a Colonel in the military is especially pissed lol.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mr Telephone Man
2012 Polls weren't accurate. That's why Romney didnt even have a concession speech ready, he and his team AND the polls (not Nate Silver) showed he was winning.
GE matchup polls are pointless, although state by state matchups are more realiable. I'll wait for Nate Silver's numbers, once the nominees are choosen.
But the Moody indicator, that has been right on every election since the 70's, shows a Democrat is going to win.
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2012 Polls The Receipts
2008 Polls The Receipts
For 2012 polls this early were actually more accurate than polls in October or November.  I'm not saying polls are set in stone or a prophecy handed down by god, but scientific polls > random people's opinions on Facebook. 
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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I think it is funny how you all want to write Bernie off as lost, but still think Rubio or Cruz will win.  Bernie's chances may be very low (*waits for Michigan results*), but Rubio and Cruz's are objectively lower.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...egate-targets/
Cruz is 65% on target, Rubio is 45% on target, and Kasich isn't even on the list. Yet Bernie is 86% on target. That's still a big gap, but not as big as Cruz/Rubio/Kasich. Honestly, if the GOP really don't want Trump, then their best bet is a brokered convention imo.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by heckinglovato
What if Kasich and Rubio drop out, Cruz makes Rubio his VP nominee and vows to nominate Kasich as his SoS
I honestly feel like the establishment should go with that plan if they wanna end Trump once and for all. |
Kasich and Rubio dropping out after their state's primary will be too little too late. Kasich is trailing trump by a small margin in the latest OHIO poll and the same for Rubio in Florida. Most states from here on out favor Trump and those states are winner-takes-all. Cruz isn't gonna carry New York, California, Maryland, and such. They needed people to drop during Super Tuesday, to make Cruz competitive in the southern conservative states.Instead, Trump won them and got majority of the proportional delegate counts. They needed Rubio to be the IT guy and this crowded pool has hampered that rally around the main establishment guy. I feel bad for him. If he loses his state and by a big margin, it'll be so embarrassing for him.
At this point, they are hoping for a brokered convention and by not picking Trump, the leading delegate holder, they're setting themselves up for a Trump supporters rebellion. The Democratic Party parallel to that is Bernie winning more states, popular vote, and pledged delegates, but denied the nomination by super delegates. Luckily, I don't think that is happening on the Dem side, but Republicans, it's a hot mess right now of epic proportions.
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