[Olhiver]

Originally posted by KarlosVzla

You know damn well 5HOnTour must have more strategies than their own team already set up.

The girls/fandom would not be were we are without them, honestly.



I wouldn't count that much on streaming, tbh. Unless the video is controversial or something. I think it'll get average numbers at first. I'm expecting a lot of radio support though, and a +80k opening if I'm being a pessimist. I hope they pull 100k though.

+80k is pretty safe imo.
100k will be amazing.

[KarlosVzla]

Originally posted by Olhiver

+80k is pretty safe imo.
100k will be amazing.

Considering they did 75k with BO$$ and they weren't really big at all back then, I think 100k could be a safe bet. Sales are much lower nowadays though, so you never know. I think it will depend on the promo, the song, the release... everything.

[Harmonizer]

Originally posted by KarlosVzla

Considering they did 75k with BO$$ and they weren't really big at all back then, I think 100k could be a safe bet. Sales are much lower nowadays though, so you never know. I think it will depend on the promo, the song, the release... everything.

BO$$ also was up for pre-order for quite a while.

[KarlosVzla]

Originally posted by Harmonizer

BO$$ also was up for pre-order for quite a while.

That too.

God! I hate that we barely know **** about this whole thing Most of the girls have been pretty active on social media lately too Even Lauren on Twitter.

[Harmonizer]

This is going to be the longest week ever

[Olhiver]

Originally posted by Harmonizer

BO$$ also was up for pre-order for quite a while.

a month.
I had forgotten

[shelven]

Some of the sales predictions in here are waaaaay too optimistic 80K sales in a week now would equate to around #6 on the Digital Songs chart. Despite 5H's growth, I honestly just can't see that happening unless everything lines up perfectly in its first week. Ariana has a MASSIVE fanbase, and yet Focus only debuted with 100K. A lot of you are underestimating how much sales have fallen since BO$$'s 75K week. To put it into perspective, if BO$$ debuted at #14 on Digital Songs NOW, it would have sold ~40K. I could be wrong (in fact I'd love to be wrong), but I can't see this single doing double what BO$$ would have done with deflated numbers.

If they do a 5 day countdown AND have amazing first week airplay, I can see them doing 75K-80K. If one of those two things happen, then I'd say 65K-70K. If neither happens (i.e. a surprise release with mediocre airplay), then I say about 60K - keep in mind that would STILL be a Top 10 HDS debut.

Originally posted by KarlosVzla

You know damn well 5HOnTour must have more strategies than their own team already set up.

The problem is that 5HonTour (and all the 5H update accounts for that matter) are good at getting people who are already part of the fandom organized and ready to buy and stream. But they're not all that effective in influencing the general public. This single won't get a really strong debut without the general public's help, which is why a countdown or some sort of pre-release promotion needs to happen that the media and public can catch.

[getback]

Originally posted by shelven

Some of the sales predictions in here are waaaaay too optimistic 80K sales in a week now would equate to around #6 on the Digital Songs chart. Despite 5H's growth, I honestly just can't see that happening unless everything lines up perfectly in its first week. Ariana has a MASSIVE fanbase, and yet Focus only debuted with 100K. A lot of you are underestimating how much sales have fallen since BO$$'s 75K week. To put it into perspective, if BO$$ debuted at #14 on Digital Songs NOW, it would have sold ~40K. I could be wrong (in fact I'd love to be wrong), but I can't see this single doing double what BO$$ would have done with deflated numbers.

If they do a 5 day countdown AND have amazing first week airplay, I can see them doing 75K-80K. If one of those two things happen, then I'd say 65K-70K. If neither happens (i.e. a surprise release with mediocre airplay), then I say about 60K - keep in mind that would STILL be a Top 10 HDS debut.



The problem is that 5HonTour (and all the 5H update accounts for that matter) are good at getting people who are already part of the fandom organized and ready to buy and stream. But they're not all that effective in influencing the general public. This single won't get a really strong debut without the general public's help, which is why a countdown or some sort of pre-release promotion needs to happen that the media and public can catch.

you should put in the fact that Focus is a horrible song. I bought all of her previous single but I never touched Focus, I only stream it
if the music is REALLY good, and if they have a radio real, we can expect a high debut

[shelven]

Originally posted by getback

you should put in the fact that Focus is a horrible song. I bought all of her previous single but I never touched Focus, I only stream it

Fair enough

if the music is REALLY good, and if they have a radio real, we can expect a high debut

Well my point is that 80K would be a high debut. Everyone's saying that 80K is their safe or pessimistic prediction, but I'd be absolutely thrilled with an 80K debut in this sales climate.

To look at it another way: The week that BO$$ debuted, the #6 song sold ~115K. Yet back in 2014, nobody would call a 115K debut mediocre or pessimistic. So an 80K debut in 2016 shouldn't be considered one either since they're equivalents.

[Olhiver]

shelven ~40k is safe.

all this drive me crazy

[Bentley]

I think they'll do 90-100k, easily.

[getback]

Originally posted by shelven

Fair enough



Well my point is that 80K would be a high debut. Everyone's saying that 80K is their safe or pessimistic prediction, but I'd be absolutely thrilled with an 80K debut in this sales climate.

To look at it another way: The week that BO$$ debuted, the #6 song sold ~115K. Yet back in 2014, nobody would call a 115K debut mediocre or pessimistic. So an 80K debut in 2016 shouldn't be considered one either since they're equivalents.

I don't think they can even reach 100K It would be a dream come true, but I say they will debut with the same number as BO$$
Just please deliver so even non-stans love it so much they have to buy it

[Exzime.]

Am I the only who thinks that they can only do 55-65k at most

[shelven]

Originally posted by Exzime.

Am I the only who thinks that they can only do 55-65k at most

Again, I think a lot of it depends on when they start hyping up the release. If they do a literal surprise release (dropping it on Friday at midnight with zero warning), then I think they'll do about 55-65K purely because I don't think enough of the general public will know that the song is out. On the other hand, if they officially announce the single tomorrow and spend this whole week hyping it up (and radio stations/media websites get on board with the hype), then I think 55K is probably too low.

Another factor is how loyal their core fanbase has remained since BO$$. Their fanbase has obviously grown a lot since then, but a lot of their fans have also gotten annoyed at the group tension and may not jump to support the song so immediately. There's also the fact that on-demand streaming wasn't nearly as popular back in summer 2014, so a lot of fans may just opt to stream this time instead of buying it.

[Bentley]

All they need is an add on iTunes, and to be under new releases.

They'll do 100k.

[Harmonizer]

I hope we get a title or snippet in tomorrow ANYTHING

[KORDEI]

Today better be the day. I have had it 4 days... what are they waiting for?

[Ethereal]

[Exzime.]

so where is sit

[Pedro]

They better not push back the release date.