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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
Wonder where O'Malley will go now. I think VP is out of the question, he's gotten into one too many verbal spats with either candidate for that to be possible. Also his low Iowa numbers don't bode well for him.
Maybe a minor cabinet position? Democratic Party chair? I'm sure he'll go for the nom again in 4/8 years time.
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O'Malley is done in politics, I think. His reputation is destroyed. The reporters were all pitying him when they saw his campaign HQ and nobody was there. He should just go be a lobbyist; they make plenty of money.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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I think the "pissed Bernie supporters" idea is as much a myth as hypothetical "pissed Hillary supporters." Bernie's base is passionate about their causes and their candidate, but all that I've spoken to today have acknowledged that they would likely vote for Hillary over a potential Republican. Remember here that her real issue with Bernie supporters is her seeming trustworthiness and her image; young people disproportionately distrust her, and that translates to Bernie's base because they're primarily so young. I don't think that many at all would sit out or vote against her just out of bitterness about Bernie losing - that's not how people who are politically active and motivated typically work. Even if you've heard people say they will, make sure to assess whether they'd actually follow through and then make sure to realize that they are a very tiny vocal minority and not at all a significant number.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Is the 23-21 delegate split confirmed?
Bit weird if you think about it. If the 'popular' vote is 49.9-49.6, shouldn't it be 22-22?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
Is the 23-21 delegate split confirmed?
Bit weird if you think about it. If the 'popular' vote is 49.9-49.6, shouldn't it be 22-22?
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It depends entirely on the state delegate count.
Right now some sites haven't projected any allocation for that last delegate, while others give it to Hillary. We should have more details and analysis later today.
Most notably, she has 28 delegates already counting superdelegates from Iowa; the highest Bernie could get is 24, but there's also the chance she snatches all three remaining (two superdelegates and the last committed one) and wins by ten.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Yikes @ the thought of Rubio or Cruz winning the presidency
Wow, i really have no choice other than voting for Hillary, do i? 
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Member Since: 10/2/2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally posted by @michael
O'Malley is done in politics, I think. His reputation is destroyed. The reporters were all pitying him when they saw his campaign HQ and nobody was there. He should just go be a lobbyist; they make plenty of money.
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Better not try a comeback in Maryland. So many people in both parties now despise him. Baltimore specifically.
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Member Since: 6/16/2006
Posts: 6,439
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Was Trump estimated to win Iowa in the first place?
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Member Since: 10/2/2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally posted by like2throw
Was Trump estimated to win Iowa in the first place?
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He was for about the past two weeks, albeit barely.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
It depends entirely on the state delegate count.
Right now some sites haven't projected any allocation for that last delegate, while others give it to Hillary. We should have more details and analysis later today.
Most notably, she has 28 delegates already counting superdelegates from Iowa; the highest Bernie could get is 24, but there's also the chance she snatches all three remaining (two superdelegates and the last committed one) and wins by ten.
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Problem with the superdelegates is that they aren't locked in until the DNC so not much use factoring them in right now.
23-21 would be a good result for Clinton, considering how pre-caucus polling was going+Iowa's demographics. I think a strong debate performance on the 4th is important to pull closer to Bernie in NH, losing there by double figures will make for some bad publicity.
This early in the race its all about perception.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
Problem with the superdelegates is that they aren't locked in until the DNC so not much use factoring them in right now.
23-21 would be a good result for Clinton, considering how pre-caucus polling was going+Iowa's demographics. I think a strong debate performance on the 4th is important to pull closer to Bernie in NH, losing there by double figures will make for some bad publicity.
This early in the race its all about perception.
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While that's true, I think it's historically incredibly unlikely for superdelegates to change their minds at or before the convention unless their preferred or endorsed candidate drops out.
Hoping for 23-21 committed, myself. And I do hope she narrows the race in NH; I think winning there is probably not even remotely likely, but making it close there would benefit her a lot in terms of perception.
Let's not forget the surprise win she pulled in 2008 - there's a chance yet she'll do well there and lose by just a narrow margin.
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Banned
Member Since: 9/13/2010
Posts: 14,033
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Rubio is the change America needs. 
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Rubio is a climate change denier, would repeal Obamacare entirely (and with it any progress toward universal health coverage), has a more hawkish stance on foreign policy than any Democrat, supports the Patriot Act in all its provisions (admittedly a gripe I have with Hillary as well), opposes abortion regardless of circumstance, opposes same-sex marriage and wants the decision overturned so states can "decide to define it the traditional way" (note: not just so states have the right to define it), has an A rating with the NRA, wants marijuana use to remain criminalized, and advocates tax reform that dosproportionately favors the wealthy and hurts the poor.
He is the literal antithesis of what we need and against almost everything that both Hillary and Bernie stand for, and I would be appalled if he were to receive support in the general election.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 22,001
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This post is not meant to be racist or taken as any type of offense:
I think people think Marco Rubio is the "change" or progressive candidate for the republicans because he is a young, non-white, good speaker. He is not the average looking old white guy who hates everyone if that makes sense. I think because of this, people assume he is a younger, more progressive candidate for the GOP. But beyond his appearance, he is a very very conservative person with very old ways of thinking, even more than Ted or Carson.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 13,781
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
Rubio is a climate change denier, would repeal Obamacare entirely (and with it any progress toward universal health coverage), has a more hawkish stance on foreign policy than any Democrat, supports the Patriot Act in all its provisions (admittedly a gripe I have with Hillary as well), opposes abortion regardless of circumstance, opposes same-sex marriage and wants the decision overturned so states can "decide to define it the traditional way" (note: not just so states have the right to define it), has an A rating with the NRA, wants marijuana use to remain criminalized, and advocates tax reform that dosproportionately favors the wealthy and hurts the poor.
He is the literal antithesis of what we need and against almost everything that both Hillary and Bernie stand for, and I would be appalled if he were to receive support in the general election.
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Rubio sounds completely terrifying.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 3,292
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Rubio looks better every day
I STILL think Trump is going to make it somehow, it eludes me ON HOW, bu he will.
Hillary will win the big ones and she'll take it too.
In a Hillary vs Trump scenario, no way she loses
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Banned
Member Since: 9/13/2010
Posts: 14,033
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I don't know if I necessarily agree with everything Rubio says, but I know he's better than Cruz or Trump. I'm undecided on if I'd vote Republican or Democrat but I want him to be the Republican candidate, at least.
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 11,012
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Quote:
Originally posted by HausofNiko
This post is not meant to be racist or taken as any type of offense:
I think people think Marco Rubio is the "change" or progressive candidate for the republicans because he is a young, non-white, good speaker. He is not the average looking old white guy who hates everyone if that makes sense. I think because of this, people assume he is a younger, more progressive candidate for the GOP. But beyond his appearance, he is a very very conservative person with very old ways of thinking, even more than Ted or Carson.
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Nothing racist here. You're spot on.
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Banned
Member Since: 9/13/2010
Posts: 14,033
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ddddddd @ Rubio being more conservative than Cruz and Carson
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
While that's true, I think it's historically incredibly unlikely for superdelegates to change their minds at or before the convention unless their preferred or endorsed candidate drops out.
Hoping for 23-21 committed, myself. And I do hope she narrows the race in NH; I think winning there is probably not even remotely likely, but making it close there would benefit her a lot in terms of perception.
Let's not forget the surprise win she pulled in 2008 - there's a chance yet she'll do well there and lose by just a narrow margin.
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Yeah that's one worrying sign. It's one thing to lose New Hampshire (given the demographics and location) but it's a different story to get TROUNCED there. Like it's not even close, his lead over her is about the same lead she has over him in South Carolina. That's NOT good news for Clinton's camp 
She proved with Iowa (where she won the somewhat liberal and moderate voters by 6 and 21 points respectively) that she can indeed be competitive with Sanders' strongest demographics. Even if New Hampshire is next to Vermont, there's no reason she should be that far behind. She needs to lose by less than 10 points to have some sort of moral victory and not monumentally bad press from this (we all know how the media blows everything she does out of proportion)
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Member Since: 1/2/2014
Posts: 435
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Quote:
Originally posted by HausofNiko
This post is not meant to be racist or taken as any type of offense:
I think people think Marco Rubio is the "change" or progressive candidate for the republicans because he is a young, non-white, good speaker. He is not the average looking old white guy who hates everyone if that makes sense. I think because of this, people assume he is a younger, more progressive candidate for the GOP. But beyond his appearance, he is a very very conservative person with very old ways of thinking, even more than Ted or Carson.
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This. Rubio is extremely conservative, he was a part of the Tea Party wave and he represents their anti-government, pro-obstructionist views. And what's scarier is that unlike Trump/Cruz he could actually unite the Republicans around him. He has built in demographic advantages, not just in terms of his ethnicity and age but also with him being from florida. If Hillary is smart she'll spend millions on ads attacking him in March, just like Obama did to Romney.
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