[brianc33616]

Hello debuted at #45 on HRS. I remember Shake It Off moved from the 40s to the Top Ten in its second week on HRS. It'll be interesting seeing how far Hello can jump on HRS next week with it gaining 8-9 million impressions a day on AI.

[spree]

Just because a song is #14 on Bubbling Under, does NOT mean it's #114 overall. You to take into account all the songs that drop off that haven't been on the chart for 20 weeks or more. Hello could actually be #125 or something.

[lpd446]

Kelly's record is safe

[MusicLoverDude]

How Deep Is Your Love 29

[Liberdade mi amor]

Who cares about biggest jump? What about biggest scalpage ever? Adele is on the verge of curing cancer and more with Hello. The merciless extermination of all life ever.

[Colton Haynes]

YAS @ Here being a top 20 hit!
And it's STILL rising!

On My Mind being a top 20 hit and still rising

And holy **** @ Stitches being a top 5 hit and rising as well

[simmnfierzig]

Current estimation for next week

1. Hello 1818
2. Hotline Bling 546

Some week in 2013 with todays formula

1. Harlem Shake 1638
2. Thrift Shop 670

[umich]

Billboard posted an article about 2+ years ago that showed the #1 songs that had the largest leads over a #2 song. With Adele expected to have a huge lead over the #2 next week, I though it'd be nice to repost what BB reported to us:

In 1992-93, for multiple weeks of its 14-week command, Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love You" sported a lead of approximately three times as many chart points as the No. 2 songs. The not-so-close challengers in those frames? '90s R&B flashback alert: Shai's "If I Ever Fall in Love" and Wreckx-N-Effect's "Rump Shaker."

Elton John's tribute to the late Princess Diana, "Candle in the Wind 1997," backed with "Something About the Way You Look Tonight," likewise racked a 14-week reign. It blocked Usher's "You Make Me Wanna…," which peaked at No. 2 for seven weeks, from the summit by a large spread in that span, including a massive lead of more than six times as many points the week of Oct. 18, 1997.

Celine Dion bowed atop the Hot 100 with "My Heart Will Go On." The love theme from "Titanic" seemed like it would … never … let … go … of No. 1, leading the No. 2 song, again by Usher, "Nice & Slow" (which had already led for two weeks by then), with about three times as many points.

http://www.billboard.com/articles/co...-on?page=0%2C1

It's also worth mentioning that the week that Harlem Shake debuted at #1 (with 103 million streams), it led the #2 by 3.5x the number of points.

[fridayteenage]

So Hello will be in 3rd place based on those estimates.

[aphextwink]

Originally posted by Liberdade mi amor

Who cares about biggest jump? What about biggest scalpage ever? Adele is on the verge of curing cancer and more with Hello. The merciless extermination of all life ever.

so is she saving lives or ending them.

[simmnfierzig]

Originally posted by umich

It's also worth mentioning that the week that Harlem Shake debuted at #1 (with 103 million streams), it led the #2 by 3.5x the number of points.

Yeah streaming was worth more back then... but don't know what the formula exactly was like...

But Hello has a chance of getting at 3.5x what Hotline Bling will do next week

[spree]

I wonder where this will land on the all-time list on UWC when it finally falls off the Top 40, lol.

[Auris]

Will it really sell 1.1M

[simmnfierzig]

Originally posted by Ari Auris

Will it really sell 1.1M

Probably more.

[ARTPØP]

Early T20 predictions.

(01) Hello || iTunes: #1 || Radio: #34 || Spotify: #1 (NEW)
(02) Hotline Bling || iTunes: #3 || Radio: #4 || Spotify: #2 (=)
(03) The Hills || iTunes: #6* || Radio: #1 || Spotify: #6 (-2)
(04) What Do You Mean? || iTunes: #4 || Radio: #3 || Spotify: #5 (-1)
(05) Sorry || iTunes: #2 || Radio: #85 || Spotify: #2 (NEW)
(06) Stitches || iTunes: #8 || Radio: #5 || Spotify: #7 (-2)
(07) Wildest Dreams || iTunes: #7 || Radio: #2 || Spotify: N/A (-2)
(08) 679 || iTunes: #15 || Radio: #12 || Spotify: #9 (-2)
(09) Can't Feel My Face || iTunes: #22 || Radio: #8 || Spotify: #8 (-2)
(10) Locked Away || iTunes: #17 || Radio: #6 || Spotify: #21 (-2)

(11) Watch Me || iTunes: #33 || Radio: #275 || Spotify: N/A (-2)
(12) Jumpman || iTunes: #28 || Radio: #181 || Spotify: #4 (=)
(13) Lean On || iTunes: #25 || Radio: #13 || Spotify: #13 (-2)
(14) Downtown || iTunes: #10* || Radio: #17 || Spotify: #19 (-1)
(15) Ex's & Oh's || iTunes: #5 || Radio: #9 || Spotify: #33 (=)
(16) Like I'm Gonna Lose You || iTunes: #9 || Radio: #15 || Spotify: #29 (+2)
(17) Same Old Love || iTunes: #11 || Radio: #36 || Spotify: #10 (-1)
(18) On My Mind || iTunes: #12 || Radio: #20 || Spotify: #12 (+1)
(19) Here || iTunes: #129 || Radio: #15 || Spotify: #11 (+1)
(20) Good For You || iTunes: #55 || Radio: #11 || Spotify: #20 (-6)

[simmnfierzig]

So to summarize. Biggest lead on the Hot 100 over the #2 song (thanks umich )

Candle In The Wind 6x
Harlem Shake 3.5x
I Will Always Love You 3x
My Heart Will Go On 3x

Hello will probably come in at 3x - 3.5x and I am careful with it's streaming estimation.

[Cz!]

HS feels out of place among all those classics lol. Does anybody (pop forums aside) even remember it?

[Tsuko]

Originally posted by Cz!

HS feels out of place among all those classics lol. Does anybody (pop forums aside) even remember it?

You should go talk about it with people and see for yourself! In my experience most people remember it, but it was only a couple of years ago. However, I think a lot of people remember the meme more than the song itself.

If Billboard gave the 30 second clips a lower weighting, it would've probably been #1 for just 2 weeks, which I think would've been more accurate, since I remember on its last couple of weeks at #1 hardly anybody was talking about it anymore.

[Tylerbv]

56 61 68 9 Smoke Break, Carrie Underwood 43

finally some movement

I think shell do well next week too.

[Tristan]

#14? Flop