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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (June 24-July 1, 2015)
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Exodus
- PASS UF! for the year please - 
1 1 1 15 #1 10 wks See You Again, Wiz Khalifa Featuring Charlie Puth 1
9 10 9 17 Honey, I'm Good., Andy Grammer 9 - RISE UP!
14 15 18 18 Worth It, Fifth Harmony Featuring Kid Ink 14 - TOP 10, NEXT!
52 65 85 3 House Party, Sam Hunt 52 - TOP 50, NEXT!
I'm just glad these debuted:
92 97 – 2 Lose My Mind, Brett Eldredge 92
93 0 New 1 Sparks, Hilary Duff 93
100 0 New 1 Good Thing, Sage The Gemini Featuring Nick Jonas 100
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SYA isn't going to pass UF for the year. I need to go ahead and let you know that now so you don't have your hopes up unnecessarily any longer. UF is one of the biggest songs of all time, and it may actually finally dethrone The Twist on the 60th Anniversary Edition of the Hot 100 All-Time Chart.
SYA will likely finish in the Top 3 for 2015 though, but I'm not sure if it or TOL will rank #2 for the year. TOL has been on the chart all year. SYA is looking likely to be, at least for now, the biggest selling downloads released in 2015, as it should pass 4 million.
However, UF will be the biggest seller of the 2015 chart year and calendar year by a significant margin. The only area the two songs could come close are in streaming, but even there UF has almost a four month jump start on SYA, so that's not certain either. UF is still in the Top 5, and SYA is falling in streaming, so UF could beat SYA there too.
SYA is likely to out perform UF on Billboard's SOTS Chart though.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:
1. See You Again = 22% Sales + 36% Airplay + 42% Streaming
2. Bad Blood = 38% Sales + 35% Airplay + 27% Streaming
3. Trap Queen = 21% Sales + 15% Airplay + 64% Streaming
4. Cheerleader = 44% Sales + 21% Airplay + 35% Streaming
5. Shut Up And Dance = 29% Sales + 47% Airplay + 24% Streaming
6. Uptown Funk = 22% Sales + 31% Airplay + 47% Streaming
7. Want To Want Me = 24% Sales + 50% Airplay + 26% Streaming
8. Hey Mama = 28% Sales + 40% Airplay + 32% Streaming
9. Honey, I'm Good. = 41% Sales + 36% Airplay + 23% Streaming
10. Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey) = 15% Sales + 39% Airplay + 46% Streaming
11. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 31% Sales + 10% Airplay + 59% Streaming
12. Can't Feel My Face = 35% Sales + 28% Airplay + 37% Streaming
13. Fight Song = 60% Sales + 20% Airplay + 20% Airplay
14. Worth It = 36% Sales + 25% Airplay + 39% Streaming
15. Where Are Ü Now = 33% Sales + 25% Airplay + 42% Streaming
16. Talking Body = 29% Sales + 47% Airplay + 24% Streaming
17. Lean On = 33% Sales + 24% Airplay + 43% Streaming
18. You Know You Like It = 28% Sales + 39% Airplay + 33% Streaming
19. Sugar = 22% Sales + 39% Airplay + 39% Streaming
20. Thinking Out Loud = 27% Sales + 30% Airplay + 43% Streaming
So for the Top 20 this week = 31% Sales + 32% Airplay + 37% Streaming
Streaming > Airplay > Sales
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:
1. See You Again = 22% Sales + 36% Airplay + 42% Streaming
2. Bad Blood = 38% Sales + 35% Airplay + 27% Streaming
3. Trap Queen = 21% Sales + 15% Airplay + 64% Streaming
4. Cheerleader = 44% Sales + 21% Airplay + 35% Streaming
5. Shut Up And Dance = 29% Sales + 47% Airplay + 24% Streaming
6. Uptown Funk = 22% Sales + 31% Airplay + 47% Streaming
7. Want To Want Me = 24% Sales + 50% Airplay + 26% Streaming
8. Hey Mama = 28% Sales + 40% Airplay + 32% Streaming
9. Honey, I'm Good. = 41% Sales + 36% Airplay + 23% Streaming
10. Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey) = 15% Sales + 39% Airplay + 46% Streaming
11. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 31% Sales + 10% Airplay + 59% Streaming
12. Can't Feel My Face = 35% Sales + 28% Airplay + 37% Streaming
13. Fight Song = 60% Sales + 20% Airplay + 20% Airplay
14. Worth It = 36% Sales + 25% Airplay + 39% Streaming
15. Where Are Ü Now = 33% Sales + 25% Airplay + 42% Streaming
16. Talking Body = 29% Sales + 47% Airplay + 24% Streaming
17. Lean On = 33% Sales + 24% Airplay + 43% Streaming
18. You Know You Like It = 28% Sales + 39% Airplay + 33% Streaming
19. Sugar = 22% Sales + 39% Airplay + 39% Streaming
20. Thinking Out Loud = 27% Sales + 30% Airplay + 43% Streaming
So for the Top 20 this week = 31% Sales + 32% Airplay + 37% Streaming
Streaming > Airplay > Sales
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I wonder how these proportions will change within the next two weeks when Apple Music's streaming is added into the chart? Of course, BB might adjust the formula to compensate for the added streaming source coming into the Hot 100 as well.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 06/21/2015
#1. Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth - "See You Again" – 117,779 (2,974,746)
#2. Fetty Wap - "Trap Queen" – 86,971 (1,801,969)
#3. Silento - "Watch Me" – 76,830 (516,695)
#4. The Weeknd - "The Hills" – 65,709 (330,818)
#5. T'Wayne - "Nasty Freestyle" – 38,540 (753,045)
#6. The Weeknd - "Earned It" – 38,100 (2,021,270)
#7. Rich Homie Quan - "Flex (Ooh, Ooh, Ooh)" – 33,333 (255,686)
#8. Flo Rida feat. Sage The Gemini - "GDFR" – 27,906 (1,974,951)
#9. Rihanna - "Bitch Better Have My Money" – 26,705 (666,570)
#10. Omarion feat. Chris Brown & Jhene Aiko - "Post To Be" – 26,629 (629,505)
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Early Predictions:
1. See You Again = (10-14% of lead)
2. Bad Blood =
3. Cheerleader +1
4. Trap Queen -1
5. Shut Up And Dance =
6. Can't Feel My Face +6
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) +4
8. Hey Mama =
9. Good For You HOT SHOT DEBUT
10. Uptown Funk -4
11. Honey, I'm Good. -2
12. Want To Want Me -5
13. Fight Song =
14. Lean On +3
15. Worth It -1
16. Where Are Ü Now -1
17. Earned It (This Bitch Is Gonna Troll Me Again) -7
18. You Know You Like It =
19. Sugar =
20. Talking Body -4
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Early Predictions:
1. See You Again = (10-14% of lead)
2. Bad Blood =
3. Cheerleader +1
4. Trap Queen -1
5. Shut Up And Dance =
6. Can't Feel My Face +6
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) +4
8. Hey Mama =
9. Good For You HOT SHOT DEBUT
10. Uptown Funk -4
11. Honey, I'm Good. -2
12. Want To Want Me -5
13. Fight Song =
14. Lean On +3
15. Worth It -1
16. Where Are Ü Now -1
17. Earned It (This Bitch Is Gonna Troll Me Again) -7
18. You Know You Like It =
19. Sugar =
20. Talking Body -4
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What's with the big drop for UF? I actually lowered GFY from 12-15 because of the sales drop. We'll definitely diverge a bit this week, as I have UF at 7, maybe 8 at the lowest.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
What's with the big drop for UF? I actually lowered GFY from 12-15 because of the sales drop. We'll definitely diverge a bit this week, as I have UF at 7, maybe 8 at the lowest.
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Because it's still decreasing on each component and there are hits exploding and having great moment right now (CFMF, WM and GFY).
This how points could end (although this is an early prediction, so this could change a lot later):
6. Can't Feel My Face = 122k + 78M + 8.1M = 318
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 108k + 28M + 11.5M = 293
8. Hey Mama = 74k + 103M + 6.9M = 282
9. Good For You = 168k + 21M + 6.3M = 276
10. Uptown Funk = 54k + 74M + 9.8M = 268
11. Honey, I'm Good. = 104k + 88M + 4.8M = 267
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by umich
Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 06/21/2015
#1. Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth - "See You Again" – 117,779 (2,974,746)
#2. Fetty Wap - "Trap Queen" – 86,971 (1,801,969)
#3. Silento - "Watch Me" – 76,830 (516,695)
#4. The Weeknd - "The Hills" – 65,709 (330,818)
#5. T'Wayne - "Nasty Freestyle" – 38,540 (753,045)
#6. The Weeknd - "Earned It" – 38,100 (2,021,270)
#7. Rich Homie Quan - "Flex (Ooh, Ooh, Ooh)" – 33,333 (255,686)
#8. Flo Rida feat. Sage The Gemini - "GDFR" – 27,906 (1,974,951)
#9. Rihanna - "Bitch Better Have My Money" – 26,705 (666,570)
#10. Omarion feat. Chris Brown & Jhene Aiko - "Post To Be" – 26,629 (629,505)
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SYA 3 million next week, will get to 4 million, (want 5 million but don't see it happening); TQ to 2 million in 2-3 weeks, doubt it'll reach 3 million, probably around 2.5 (still one of 2015's own biggest; UF, TOL, BS all 2014 songs.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Early Predictions:
1. See You Again = (10-14% of lead)
2. Bad Blood =
3. Cheerleader +1
4. Trap Queen -1
5. Shut Up And Dance =
6. Can't Feel My Face +6
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) +4
8. Hey Mama =
9. Good For You HOT SHOT DEBUT
10. Uptown Funk -4
11. Honey, I'm Good. -2
12. Want To Want Me -5
13. Fight Song =
14. Lean On +3
15. Worth It -1
16. Where Are Ü Now -1
17. Earned It (This Bitch Is Gonna Troll Me Again) -7
18. You Know You Like It =
19. Sugar =
20. Talking Body -4
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You're just setting yourself up for another #10 week for EI 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
You're just setting yourself up for another #10 week for EI |
Lol I'll say EI is 12-14, and UF is 7-8. GFY is 12-14. I'm putting Work It at 15 when I do my third edit later today.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Because it's still decreasing on each component and there are hits exploding and having great moment right now (CFMF, WM and GFY).
This how points could end (although this is an early prediction, so this could change a lot later):
6. Can't Feel My Face = 122k + 78M + 8.1M = 318
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae) = 108k + 28M + 11.5M = 293
8. Hey Mama = 74k + 103M + 6.9M = 282
9. Good For You = 168k + 21M + 6.3M = 276
10. Uptown Funk = 54k + 74M + 9.8M = 268
11. Honey, I'm Good. = 104k + 88M + 4.8M = 267
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I think UF will be at 60-65k, and I think GFY will be 155-160k. I also don't think HM's airplay will be that much more like 90-95M, but we'll see. I think UF will stay just above 10M in streaming too. I'm doing revisions later today, so I'll then see what I have.
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 2,311
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You know what's crazy? The Hot 100 top 10 is filled with twenty-somethings, but two of the next entries into the upper region will be a 17-year-old and a 34-year-old.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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I wouldn't be surprised if EI only decreases to #11 and UF! slides to #8.
I'm still thinking around a 11-14 debut for Selena.
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Member Since: 11/9/2011
Posts: 5,451
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
What's with the big drop for UF? I actually lowered GFY from 12-15 because of the sales drop. We'll definitely diverge a bit this week, as I have UF at 7, maybe 8 at the lowest.
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http://kworb.net/cc/
If GFY debuts ~176k and gets at least 15-20m streams, it'll sit comfortably in the top 10.
A good example of this is Britney's Work Bitch debuting at #12 with similiar weak competition with only 174k copies and little to no streaming nor radio.
Selena may even debut in the top 5 if streaming is high enough. You guys seem to always underestimate sales now, because the lower part of the Hot 100 top 10 is under 100k sales and lacks those extra points, making weak competition and easier to debut top 10 with lower sales like the pre-streaming days.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 6,067
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
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BDSM ha powah
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mattyboy
http://kworb.net/cc/
If GFY debuts ~176k and gets at least 15-20m streams, it'll sit comfortably in the top 10.
A good example of this is Britney's Work Bitch debuting at #12 with similiar weak competition with only 174k copies and little to no streaming nor radio.
Selena may even debut in the top 5 if streaming is high enough. You guys seem to always underestimate sales now, because the lower part of the Hot 100 top 10 is under 100k sales and lacks those extra points, making weak competition and easier to debut top 10 with lower sales like the pre-streaming days.
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GFY was projected at 176,000 when it was at around 0.9000. GFY has since slipped to 0.8000. It didn't get the expected boost from the video, which is why I estimate 155-160k. I sincerely doubt GFY will sell close to 175k, since projections were less than that before the song's sales fell further and never recovered. Streaming is projected at around 7 million, less than half of the 15-20 million streams you are mentioning. She'll probably get a little over 20 million airplay impressions, but not streams. I think GFY will debut between #11-#14.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
I wouldn't be surprised if EI only decreases to #11 and UF! slides to #8.
I'm still thinking around a 11-14 debut for Selena.
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I'm closer to your thinking than Ger's this time.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Updated predictions
1. See You Again
2. Bad Blood
3. Cheerleader
4. Trap Queen
5. Shut Up And Dance
6. Can't Feel My Face
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae)
8. Uptown Funk!
9. Hey Mama
10. Honey, I'm Good.
11. Good For You
12. Earned It
13. Fight Song
14. Want To Want Me
15. Lean On
16. Worth It
17. Where Are U Now
18. You Know You Like It
19. Sugar
20. Talking Body
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Member Since: 8/11/2012
Posts: 4,202
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Today is the last day of the first half of Billboard's year. I calculated that "1989" is #1 album; it was sold in 1,873,653 copies (1,298,537 is soundscan sales to 6/7/15, sales of week ending 6/14/15 comes from HITS) and 2.130m with TEA 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by popmusic
Today is the last day of the first half of Billboard's year. I calculated that "1989" is #1 album; it was sold in 1,873,653 copies (1,298,537 is soundscan sales to 6/7/15, sales of week ending 6/14/15 comes from HITS) and 2.130m with TEA |
I'm hoping we get a Top 10/12/15/20 of the Albums and Singles with totals!
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WHERE THE F*CKIN' HELL IS THAT MASSIVE STREAMING COMING FROM? 
