I don't think this will smash even with the Billboard performance, there are lots of people with bigger and better songs performing tomorrow, the most i can see is it jumping into the top 20 then fall again days after.
MLJ & The Voice literally brought their career back from purgatory. Hands All Over era was nothing but flop after flop (Misery went Top 20 but is one of their most forgotten "hits" ever).
Payphone then went off the momentum MLJ gave them, then they got a third lucky strike with OMN, and the rest is history.
Sugar is their biggest hit since OMN, but is still nowhere near how big their "big 3" this decade were (MLJ, Payphone, and OMN).