Using
iHype's discovery of the Hot 100 formula, we can now see how Applause would have fared in different situations. (Although I have a feeling that the formula has changed slightly since this time, this will still give us a fair estimation.)
Week of September 7, 2013 in Actuality
#1 - Blurred Lines
251,000 downloads divided by 10 = 25,100
6,100,000 streams divided by 750 = 8,133
221,300,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 22,130
TOTAL POINTS:
55,363
#2 - Roar
392,000 downloads divided by 10 = 39,200
4,700,000 streams divided by 750 = 6,267
76,000,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 7,600
TOTAL POINTS:
53,067
#3 - We Can't Stop
143,000 downloads divided by 10 = 14,300
6,400,000 streams divided by 750 = 8,533
55,000,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 5,500
TOTAL POINTS:
28,333
#4 - Applause
163,000 downloads divided by 10 = 16,300
6,000,000 streams divided by 750 = 8,000
37,000,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 3,700
TOTAL POINTS:
28,000
Week of September 7, 2013 Had the Song and Video Been Released on August 19
#1 - Blurred Lines
251,000 downloads divided by 10 = 25,100
6,100,000 streams divided by 750 = 8,133
221,300,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 22,130
TOTAL POINTS:
55,363
#2 - Roar
392,000 downloads divided by 10 = 39,200
4,700,000 streams divided by 750 = 6,267
76,000,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 7,600
TOTAL POINTS:
53,067
#3 - Applause
218,000 downloads divided by 10 = 21,800
6,000,000 streams divided by 750 = 8,000
31,000,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 3,100
TOTAL POINTS:
32,900
#4 - We Can't Stop
143,000 downloads divided by 10 = 14,300
6,400,000 streams divided by 750 = 8,533
55,000,000 AI divided by 10,000 = 5,500
TOTAL POINTS:
28,333
Sources for numbers: [
1] [
2]
This is assuming that it would have had at least 218,000 downloads - the same number it debuted with in actuality - as a concurrent release with the video, as was originally planned. So now we know for sure (well, through estimation) that it would have peaked at #3 had it not leaked.
