[Ger-55]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Early Predictions:

1. Happy = (17-11% of lead)
2. All Of Me =
3. Talk Dirty +1
4. Dark Horse -1
5. Let It Go =
6. Turn Down For What +2
7. Pompeii -1
8. Team -1
9. Not A Bad Thing
10. Counting Stars =
11. Loyal
12. Best Day Of My Life
13. The Man
14. Sing +1
15. Play It Again

Let me fix a little:

1. Happy =
2. All Of Me =
3. Talk Dirty +1
4. Dark Horse -1
5. Let It Go =
6. Turn Down For What +2
7. Pompeii -1
8. Team -1
9. Not A Bad Thing +3
10. Loyal +1
11. Counting Stars -1
12. The Man -3
13. Sing +2
14. Best Day Of My Life -1
15. Play It Again -1
16. Hey Brother +2

I'm predicting 125k for Lana, I hope it can be more. Taking my prediction it should debut 21-30 region

I believe Not A Bad Thing is a guaranted Top 10 entry next week for sure, it can even go as high as #8 depending on Streaming increase and a sales increase since it's Top 10 on iTunes right now, and if Lorde decreases really bad on radio.
Now the battle between Loyal and Counting Stars is very close. They're neck-on-neck

[Ger-55]

Estimated % Points:

1. Happy = 37% Sales + 42% Airplay + 21% Streaming
2. All Of Me = 32% Sales + 42% Airplay + 26% Streaming
3. Dark Horse = 23% Sales + 42% Airplay + 35% Streaming
4. Talk Dirty = 35% Sales + 36% Airplay + 29% Streaming
5. Let It Go = 47% Sales + 5% Airplay + 48% Streaming
6. Pompeii = 27% Sales + 49% Airplay + 24% Streaming
7. Team = 19% Sales + 61% Airplay + 20% Streaming
8. Turn Down For What = 42% Sales + 20% Airplay + 38% Streaming
9. The Man = 41% Sales + 32% Airplay + 27% Streaming
10. Counting Stars = 20% Sales + 52% Airplay + 28% Streaming
11. Loyal = 24% Sales + 30% Airplay + 46% Streaming
12. Not A Bad Thing = 39% Sales + 46% Airplay + 15% Streaming
13. Best Day Of My Life = 33% Sales + 53% Airplay + 14% Streaming
14. Play It Again = 62% Sales + 28% Airplay + 10% Streaming
15. Sing = 72% Sales + 22% Airplay + 6% Streaming

37% Sales + 37% Airplay + 26% Streaming

Airplay > Sales > Streaming

[FreedomZGMFX1OA]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Let me fix a little:

1. Happy =
2. All Of Me =
3. Talk Dirty +1
4. Dark Horse -1
5. Let It Go =
6. Turn Down For What +2
7. Pompeii -1
8. Team -1
9. Not A Bad Thing +3
10. Loyal +1
11. Counting Stars -1
12. The Man -3
13. Sing +2
14. Best Day Of My Life -1
15. Play It Again -1
16. Hey Brother +2

I'm predicting 125k for Lana, I hope it can be more. Taking my prediction it should debut 21-30 region

I believe Not A Bad Thing is a guaranted Top 10 entry next week for sure, it can even go as high as #8 depending on Streaming increase and a sales increase since it's Top 10 on iTunes right now, and if Lorde decreases really bad on radio.
Now the battle between Loyal and Counting Stars is very close. They're neck-on-neck

Thank you for this! Hope Loyal enters Top 10 next week!
Together with NABT!

[Life Savers]

Originally posted by umichgrad07

Streaming Songs

This Week Last Week Two Weeks Ago Weeks Title, Artist Peak
1 1 1 25 #1 8 wks Dark Horse, Katy Perry Featuring Juicy J 1

8 weeks at #1

[Costea]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Let me fix a little:

1. Happy =
2. All Of Me =
3. Talk Dirty +1
4. Dark Horse -1
5. Let It Go =
6. Turn Down For What +2
7. Pompeii -1
8. Team -1
9. Not A Bad Thing +3
10. Loyal +1
11. Counting Stars -1
12. The Man -3
13. Sing +2
14. Best Day Of My Life -1
15. Play It Again -1
16. Hey Brother +2

I'm predicting 125k for Lana, I hope it can be more. Taking my prediction it should debut 21-30 region

I believe Not A Bad Thing is a guaranted Top 10 entry next week for sure, it can even go as high as #8 depending on Streaming increase and a sales increase since it's Top 10 on iTunes right now, and if Lorde decreases really bad on radio.
Now the battle between Loyal and Counting Stars is very close. They're neck-on-neck

for a second i throught you were correcting someone else

[umich]

7. Team = 19% Sales + 61% Airplay + 20% Streaming

[Life Savers]

Originally posted by umichgrad07

7. Team = 19% Sales + 61% Airplay + 20% Streaming

Counting Stars' percentage is lower

[ClashAndBurn]

I think Play It Again's components' ratios are closer to what Billboard would find as the ideal breakdown.

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by Life Savers

Counting Stars' percentage is lower

Counting Stars is selling only 3k less than Team. And its streaming's longevity is awesome

[izzy_allfallsdown]

Loyal is so high when it's in the 60s on iTunes and Counting Stars is in the 200s on iTunes... sales need to count more

[umich]

Originally posted by izzy_allfallsdown

Loyal is so high when it's in the 60s on iTunes and Counting Stars is in the 200s on iTunes... sales need to count more

Loyal isn't that low when you include its second version.

[fridayteenage]

5. Let It Go = 47% Sales + 5% Airplay + 48% Streaming

Slaying in the T5 with barely any points in the component that's not consumer-driven. Only a bad bitch!

[Xiivi]

Originally posted by fridayteenage

5. Let It Go = 47% Sales + 5% Airplay + 48% Streaming

Slaying in the T5 with barely any points in the component that's not consumer-driven. Only a bad bitch!

Let It Go: the song the people want!

[Auris]

Gangnam Stylev still #1 on Rap Streaming

[umich]

Originally posted by AriNikoBradshaw

Gangnam Stylev still #1 on Rap Streaming

[Flashing Lights]

Originally posted by AriNikoBradshaw

Gangnam Stylev still #1 on Rap Streaming

fff

[brianc33616]

I am not surprised Radioactive is catching up on Blurred Lines. It goes without saying Radioactive has unprecedented staying power, and it fell off of digital songs more slowly than Blurred Lines. I think Radioactive could surpass Blurred Lines if Radioactive sweeps the Billboard Music Awards, which is has a strong chance of doing. Radioactive will get to at least 7.5 million, maybe farther. I can't see Blurred Lines getting past 7.2 or 7.3 million, as the song has burned out rather quickly. Regardless of who wins, both songs will get a boost from the BBAs. I wonder if Radioactive will still be on the chart when the awards air?

Originally posted by Ger-55

Radioactive almost passing Blurred Lines What a damn huge massive smash

[brianc33616]

Counting Stars is one of the five finalists for Digital Song of the year, so the song must have sold more than I thought. In my opinion, it should be one of the five finalist for Song of the Year at the BBAs, as the song seems so much bigger than Wrecking Ball.

Originally posted by Life Savers

Counting Stars' percentage is lower

[brianc33616]

Actually, I think The Man is on track with what Billboard aims for. Sales is supposed to count 40-45%, airplay 30-35%, and streaming around 25%. I know streaming points were adjusted last year because they had too much bearing on the Hot 100 (Wrecking Ball and Harlem Shuffle are the likely culprits there).

Originally posted by ClashAndBurn

I think Play It Again's components' ratios are closer to what Billboard would find as the ideal breakdown.

[brianc33616]

First of all, with the slow rise of songs crossing over to other formats, I think songs should be moved to recurrency after 26 or even possibly 30 weeks instead of the current 20 week rule when the track falls below the Top 50; and then only if the song has at least three weeks in a row of declines. I have thought about a rule where songs falling below the Top 20 Top 25 would be removed after 52 weeks, but the 26 week rule is the most important change needed regarding chart recurency policies on the Hot 100..

Also, a song should go recurrent at the same time on its genre chart as it does on the Hot 100. If the song falls out of the Hot 100 before going recurrent, remove it after 26 weeks. It looked strange last week to see Jason Aldean's Whenever She Says Baby still on the Hot 100 after falling into recurrency on the genre chart. And songs that cross over to other formats, like Avicci or Daft Punk to Rock (Alternative) Radio or Lorde to Urban (a big hit on Urban radio), should not be completely excluded from that genre chart. Royals peaked at number two or number three, and was a much bigger hit at urban radio than Eminem and Rhianna's Monster, which topped the R&B Chart for I think 13 weeks.

This is what I think would be the ideal breakdown to aim for on the Hot 100: Digital Sales 35 to 40%, Ringtones/Ringbacks (currently not included for some reason) 5-10%, physical singles up to 5%, which could be more closely achieved by giving each physical copy of a song a point, instead of diving by 5 or 10 (it is really not necessary to divide physical single sales anymore, but Billboard still does); Radio 30%, Audio Streaming 10%, Video Streaming 10%, where 1 audio stream equals 4 video streams. This would break the chart back down to half sales (in some form or fashion), and half airplay (including streaming here as "airplay", even though it is chosen by listeners more than programmers.)