Chart Listings: Billboard Hot 100 Singles (January 29-February 5, 2014) - Page 27

Ger-55

"Let The Horse Go"

Glad I'm back home, time to do new predictions.

Updated Predictions:

Things can change tomorrow when Kworb posts his final estimates and Spotify numbers are out

1. Dark Horse = (21-11% of lead)
2. Let Her Go +5 (with 13.7M US streams)
3. Timber -1
4. Talk Dirty +2
5. Counting Stars -2
6. Drunk In Love +6 (Top 5 if it puts 6.6M streams)
7. Say Something -3 (close to be #6, if DIL's streams are not big enough)
8. Royals +1
9. Happy +2
10. Team -2
11. Radioactive
12. Pompeii -2
13. The Monster -8

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Lose My Breath

What kind of formula do you use?

I don't use a formula in creating my predictions. My predictions are simply estimates based on songs' radio, streaming, and sales numbers. I try to not allow one component to outweigh another.

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Ger-55

"Let The Horse Go"

Glad I'm back home, time to do new predictions.

Updated Predictions:

Things can change tomorrow when Kworb posts his final estimates and Spotify numbers are out

1. Dark Horse = (21-11% of lead)
2. Let Her Go +5 (with 13.7M US streams)
3. Timber -1
4. Talk Dirty +2
5. Counting Stars -2
6. Drunk In Love +6 (Top 5 if it puts 6.6M streams)
7. Say Something -3 (close to be #6, if DIL's streams are not big enough)
8. Royals +1
9. Happy +2
10. Team -2
11. Radioactive
12. Pompeii -2
13. The Monster -8

I can't see The Monster below Pompeii or Team below Happy.

TM is still huge on radio, and Team is much bigger than Happy on both radio and streaming.

Ger-55

Quote:

Originally posted by alexanderao

I can't see The Monster below Pompeii or Team below Happy.

TM is still huge on radio, and Team is much bigger than Happy on both radio and streaming.

Just like you couldn't see TD going at least #8 last week and it happened

Thing is that The Monster is falling on Streaming, dropping hard on radio and sales are not helping either. It's not huge, it's gonna be around 106M on Nielsen by Wednesday. I know, but I'm predicting Pharrell to have a Streaming surge, plus he has really amazing sales, probably gonna sell 100k more than "Team". And sales is the strongest component on Hot 100

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Ger-55

Just like you couldn't see TD going at least #8 last week and it happened

Thing is that The Monster is falling on Streaming, dropping hard on radio and sales are not helping either. It's not huge, it's gonna be around 106M on Nielsen by Wednesday. I know, but I'm predicting Pharrell to have a Streaming surge, plus he has really amazing sales, probably gonna sell 100k more than "Team". And sales is the strongest component on Hot 100

Kworb is projecting Happy to sell 86,000 more than Team.

On radio, though, Team has a much larger advantage, and even if Pharrell has a streaming surge he will still end up lower than Team. As of the last Spotify update, Happy was #23 and Team was #7.

Ger-55

Quote:

Originally posted by alexanderao

Kworb is projecting Happy to sell 86,000 more than Team.

On radio, though, Team has a much larger advantage, and even if Pharrell has a streaming surge he will still end up lower than Team. As of the last Spotify update, Happy was #23 and Team was #7.

We'll see what happens

Tuxedo

What about CRTFY and its 50M (so far) views on YT? I guess 10M are fom US and it's still countring?
Does it have a chance to crash Top 10?

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Ger-55

We'll see what happens

I'm also curious as to what Timber does.

Lose My Breath

Quote:

Originally posted by alexanderao

I don't use a formula in creating my predictions. My predictions are simply estimates based on songs' radio, streaming, and sales numbers. I try to not allow one component to outweigh another.

So where do you get the percentage? Is that just a guesstimate too?

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Lose My Breath

So where do you get the percentage? Is that just a guesstimate too?

Yes. I wouldn't advise anyone to completely rely on my predictions. Rather, use them as a basis for understanding the current state of the Hot 100.

That being said, I don't just make predictions for the heck of it. I am very interested in the charts and songs' movement up and down them and channel that interest through my predictions.

Lose My Breath

Quote:

Originally posted by alexanderao

Yes. I wouldn't advise anyone to completely rely on my predictions. Rather, use them as a basis for understanding the current state of the Hot 100.

That being said, I don't just make predictions for the heck of it. I am very interested in the charts and songs' movement up and down them and channel that interest through my predictions.

I'm glad you do them, I like seeing them! I thought you had some kind of formula that I was curious about.

Thanks for posting your predictions!

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Lose My Breath

I'm glad you do them, I like seeing them! I thought you had some kind of formula that I was curious about.

Thanks for posting your predictions!

Never be afraid to ask questions!

And you're very welcome

Ger-55

Quote:

Originally posted by alexanderao

I'm also curious as to what Timber does.

I'm actually impressed by how well Timber is still doing. Despite not being a huge radio hit, it's doing wonderful on sales and streaming!

alexanderao

Quote:

Originally posted by Ger-55

I'm actually impressed by how well Timber is still doing. Despite not being a huge radio hit, it's doing wonderful on sales and streaming!

Well, it's #1 on pop radio.

Almighty Gaga

Predictions:

1. Dark Horse (=) (2-4% lead)
2. Let Her Go (+5) *16 million streams* -- 12M from the ad, 2.5M from the video, 1.5M from Spotify.
3. Timber (-1)
4. Talk Dirty (+2)
5. Counting Stars (-2)
6. Happy (+5)
7. Drunk In Love (+6)
8. Team (=)
9. Can't Remember To Forget You (+52) *10 million US streams (out of 52 million total)*
10. Say Something (-5)

11. Royals (-2)
12. The Monster (-7)
13. Pompeii (-3)
14. Radioactive (+19)
15. Story Of My Life (-3)

Michael21

Quote:

Originally posted by Almighty Gaga

Predictions:

1. Dark Horse (=) (2-4% lead)
2. Let Her Go (+5) *16 million streams* -- 12M from the ad, 2.5M from the video, 1.5M from Spotify.
3. Timber (-1)
4. Talk Dirty (+2)
5. Counting Stars (-2)
6. Happy (+5)
7. Drunk In Love (+6)
8. Team (=)
9. Can't Remember To Forget You (+52) *10 million US streams (out of 52 million total)*
10. Say Something (-5)

11. Royals (-2)
12. The Monster (-7)
13. Pompeii (-3)
14. Radioactive (+19)
15. Story Of My Life (-3)

What about Burn?

Shave-Me-Oprah

Quote:

Originally posted by Almighty Gaga

Predictions:

1. Dark Horse (=) (2-4% lead)
2. Let Her Go (+5) *16 million streams* -- 12M from the ad, 2.5M from the video, 1.5M from Spotify.
3. Timber (-1)
4. Talk Dirty (+2)
5. Counting Stars (-2)
6. Happy (+5)
7. Drunk In Love (+6)
8. Team (=)
9. Can't Remember To Forget You (+52) *10 million US streams (out of 52 million total)*
10. Say Something (-5)

11. Royals (-2)
12. The Monster (-7)
13. Pompeii (-3)
14. Radioactive (+19)
15. Story Of My Life (-3)

If Let Her Go reaches #1 and CRTFY reached top 10 it would be the best thing ever.

Almighty Gaga

Quote:

Originally posted by Michael21

What about Burn?

#16

But I'm not sure how its streaming is, so it might sneak another week in the top 15 if it's high.

Shave-Me-Oprah

Royals is #5 on Spotify, big on YT also, 100m AI on radio,predicted to sell 150k. It will be in the top 10!

NumbFentyStan

Quote:

Originally posted by Almighty Gaga

Predictions:

1. Dark Horse (=) (2-4% lead)
2. Let Her Go (+5) *16 million streams* -- 12M from the ad, 2.5M from the video, 1.5M from Spotify.
3. Timber (-1)
4. Talk Dirty (+2)
5. Counting Stars (-2)
6. Happy (+5)
7. Drunk In Love (+6)
8. Team (=)
9. Can't Remember To Forget You (+52) *10 million US streams (out of 52 million total)*
10. Say Something (-5)

11. Royals (-2)
12. The Monster (-7)
13. Pompeii (-3)
14. Radioactive (+19)
15. Story Of My Life (-3)

I would really like that tbh