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Originally posted by castle13
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Impossible ! the deadline for the final ballot is January 8th
Quote:
Originally posted by LL Cool D
AOTY is going to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis. Taylor is the only other nominee who even has a shot. Kendrick, Daft Punk, and Sarah have roughly the same chances as the Browns do of winning the Super Bowl this year.
- Daft Punk's album was polarizing and the older voters are probably turned off by the robot thing. And it's a really hard sell trying to get a disco album AOTY in 2014.
- Kendrick Lamar isn't quite big enough to win, and will get hit with the "we can't give AOTY to a rap act" penalty.
- Half the voters only know who Sara Bareilles is because of the Windows ads using Brave. She's only in the category because Justin kicked himself out due to submitting the Complete Experience instead of just Part 1 and there was no clear head-of-the-pack rock album. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a precipitous drop off in votes from the 4th place nominee to her.
- Macklemore and Ryan Lewis won't get hurt by the "we can't give AOTY to a rap act" penalty because the voters see them as a pop act first. Their album sold well and spawned several huge hits. Plus they have the song championing a social cause that makes everyone who votes for them feel like they're voting for something bigger.
I just don't see any way Macklemore and Ryan Lewis don't win almost everything. If it makes you feel any better, this will almost assuredly be followed by them disappearing from the mainstream. This definitely feels like a Chris Cross/Norah Jones/fun. situation. |
MM/RL won t win AOTY ! I m 99% sure, it s a debut album, unless they do a clean sweep ala Norah Jones, it won t happen, it isn t successful enough like Come Away With Me or Jagged Little Pill to justify its win. Same Love will win SOTY & maybe BNA for them. I m sure the academy won t do the same mistake with Christopher Cross winning over the Wall in the 80s, it s always brought up as a proof how the grammies don t mean anything when it comes to awards in music on many forums.
Kendrick Lamar is in the same position too, too new and not successful enough...
Sara is just a non factor, if it wins over Red ! it will be like the same situation of Pink Floyd & Chris Cross.
RAM is the real deal, a successful comeback, mainstream success for a niche type of music (ala Herbie Hancook), plus there s no Rock album & Rnb album, Daft Punk will get their support because it s the most hipster album and RnB votes because of Pharell Williams, the guy is one of the most respected producers actually. The only negative note for Daft Punk is that it s a french act aka a foreign act, the last 3 winners were foreign acts : Arcade Fire (CAN) - Adele & MMS (UK). I m sure many would want to bring it home as old patriots as the voters are (Dixie Chicks circa) ...that could help Red, plus she s the last US act to win it
Look at Kellie's face and you will see she doesn't think so either.
