[zzmyth]

Kworb.net predicts 414K for the last week's sales in the US

And 208K for Lorde

http://kworb.net/cc/

That would be a 206K difference on sales.

The audio video has 10M views on youtube and the song has 40M AI on radios.

Lorde has around 170M AI + 206K = 376 + Streaming points.

TM would have 40M AI + 414K = 454 + Streaming points.

The song was released on Spotify too...

Eminem's last week's song had almost 1M spotify streams last week... and this seems to have had more than that definitely.... and out of the 10M views.... at least 2M-3M should be from the US. So that could mean 4M streams for The Monster.

If lorde has around 7M-8M streams per week... then it should be close

[Ger-55]

Kworb's last predictions:

1. The Monster 414k
2. Story Of My Life 322k
3. Royals 208k
4. Roar 157k
5. Wake Me Up 147k
6. Survival 139k
7. Let Her Go 137k
8. Counting Stars 133k
9. Wrecking Ball 129k
10. Rap God 127k
11. Berzerk 113k
12. Venus 113k
13. The Fox 105k

[MusicTalker]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Kworb's last predictions:

1. The Monster 414k
2. Story Of My Life 322k
3. Royals 208k
4. Roar 157k
5. Wake Me Up 147k
6. Survival 139k
7. Let Her Go 137k
8. Counting Stars 133k
9. Wrecking Ball 129k
10. Rap God 127k
11. Berzerk 113k
12. Venus 113k
13. The Fox 105k

Can you imagine if Venus was second single and performed like this ?

[Starkboy]

I actually predict:

1. The Monster 385k
2. Story Of My Life 310k
3. Royals 200k

[ClashAndBurn]

Originally posted by MusicTalker

Can you imagine if Venus was second single and performed like this ?

I'm sure they'd have switched gears to something else by now, even if it weren't DWUW.

[iHype.]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Kworb's last predictions:

1. The Monster 414k
2. Story Of My Life 322k
3. Royals 208k
4. Roar 157k
5. Wake Me Up 147k
6. Survival 139k
7. Let Her Go 137k
8. Counting Stars 133k
9. Wrecking Ball 129k
10. Rap God 127k
11. Berzerk 113k
12. Venus 113k
13. The Fox 105k

Nnnn @ the 1D fans thinking it was definitely going to debut at #1, yet predicted 322k.

And @ only 1 non-digital debut predicted to sell above 200k this week, digital sales are definitely starting to be replaced by Streaming like they did to Physical Sales. What's gonna replace Streaming at this rate?

[Jennifer]

Could 1D go #1 next week? Their video is getting an insane amount of views and with digital sales relatively low, it shouldn't be too hard to snatch the top spot.

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by Jennifer

Could 1D go #1 next week? Their video is getting an insane amount of views and with digital sales relatively low, it shouldn't be too hard to snatch the top spot.

Hardly, I don't see it, they are just trying to break Miley's record right now and probably moat of the views are coming outside of the US just like it happened with Best Song Ever

[biomind101]

Originally posted by Ger-55

Hardly, I don't see it, they are just trying to break Miley's record right now and probably moat of the views are coming outside of the US just like it happened with Best Song Ever

How many views did they get in one day?

[highwind44029]

Originally posted by iHypeMusic

Nnnn @ the 1D fans thinking it was definitely going to debut at #1, yet predicted 322k.

And @ only 1 non-digital debut predicted to sell above 200k this week, digital sales are definitely starting to be replaced by Streaming like they did to Physical Sales. What's gonna replace Streaming at this rate?

Sales were much worse during 2010 though. Around this time of the year there weren't any 200K+ sellers at all other than first week sales. It's just that 2011 and 2012 saw a big boom compared to previous years. I think the quality of music being released had something to do with it too though. The pop "smashes" throughout this year have been pretty weak imo. The strongest (other than Blurred Lines or Thrift Shop) are like Locked Out Of Heaven and I Knew You Were Trouble, and they were released last year.

[iHype.]

Originally posted by highwind44029

Sales were much worse during 2010 though. Around this time of the year there weren't any 200K+ sellers at all other than first week sales. It's just that 2011 and 2012 saw a big boom compared to previous years. I think the quality of music being released had something to do with it too though. The pop "smashes" throughout this year have been pretty weak imo. The strongest (other than Blurred Lines or Thrift Shop) are like Locked Out Of Heaven and I Knew You Were Trouble, and they were released last year.

2010 was a messy year period though, all those #1's back and forth changing every week.

And isn't this the first year Digital Sales are down to last year? + we have the whole new album low-point. Plus, even if the digital singles do the usual early-November drop, you'd expect Digital Sales to have grown a little further from that by now - they're kinda stalling.

Streaming is gon' takeover real quick, this is so Deja Vu to me. In 2003 they introduced the Digital Tracks Chart, then added Digital Sales to the Formula in 2004. Now in 2012 they introduced the Streaming Charts, and added Streams to the Formula hugely in 2013.

[highwind44029]

I'm honestly not a big fan of making streaming a significant component on the Hot 100. We got things like Chinese Food charting on the Hot 100 because of it. I have to admit though, it's a lot more accurate in accounting for points than airplay, since streams can be identified to a specific subscriber as opposed to airplay audience only being estimates.

It also makes the charts more consumer-controlled as opposed to radio which despite requests made by callers still depends on the PD for the most part.

[Green]

Prediction:

1. Royals =
2. The Monster DEBUT
3. Roar -1
4. Wrecking Ball -1
5. Story of my life DEBUT
6. Wake me up -2
7. Hold on -2
8. Holy grail -2
9. Applause -2
10. Counting Stars -2

[nky0411]

can applause manage another week on top 10?

it gonna be a close race between applause, HG and counting stars and demons

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by biomind101

How many views did they get in one day?

Around 12M I think

[Mattyboy]

Can The Monster really debut #1?

Why is everyone saying this?

[Ger-55]

Originally posted by Mattyboy

Can The Monster really debut #1?

Why is everyone saying this?

It's gonna be a close fight, that's what we're saying. Unless it gives amazing streaming numbers ala 6-7M which I don't see, it's gonna debut at #1

[ARTPØP]

My official predictions:

01 Royals (=)
02 The Monster (DEBUT)
03 Roar (-1)
04 Story of My Life (DEBUT)
05 Wrecking Ball (-2)
06 Wake Me Up! (-2)
07 Hold On, We're Going Home (-2)
08 Counting Stars (=)
09 Holy Grail (-3)
10 Applause (-3)

[iHype.]

Originally posted by highwind44029

I'm honestly not a big fan of making streaming a significant component on the Hot 100. We got things like Chinese Food charting on the Hot 100 because of it. I have to admit though, it's a lot more accurate in accounting for points than airplay, since streams can be identified to a specific subscriber as opposed to airplay audience only being estimates.

It also makes the charts more consumer-controlled as opposed to radio which despite requests made by callers still depends on the PD for the most part.

Streaming overall is the most accurate chart component on Hot 100, yet.

Airplay as you said is an estimate + controlled by DJ's.
Sales can be controlled/front-loaded by stanbases aka Digital Sales bringing #1 Debuts despite close to 0 Airplay, or the GP not actually knowing the song yet.

Streaming doesn't have any of that, and you actually have to be a HIT to build up and smash on streaming except for the rare exceptions (Harlem Shake, Chinese Food, etc).

Plus I think currently it'd be hard for a #1 debut and mess like that. I stan for Mariah who has the most #1 Debuts, but #1 Debuts are so inaccurate because a song cannot be the most heard song in America in it's 1st week practically, because of 500k sales or so. With Streaming even if there was #1 debuts they were ACTUALLY HEARD BY MOST OF THE COUNTRY.

[musicfan09]

Originally posted by DaXoXz

Wrecking ball 2x platinum