Was looking back at One Directions Best Song Ever launch. That week Blurred Lines did about 300k, 1D 320k. At their peak they pushed BL's down to .400 on itunes.
Lorde did about 300k last week, so if she pulls similar numbers this week then Bieber will need to push her down to about .400 if he has a shot at #1 on H100.
What complicates things is the lack of a music video, which 1D had. On the other hand Royals is a much softer #1 than BL's since it has lower radio airplay and streaming in general.