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Chart Listings: Billboard Hot 100 Singles (July 24-31, 2013)
Member Since: 6/24/2012
Posts: 24,708
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Robin 
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Member Since: 12/16/2008
Posts: 59,223
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
I'd wait until after they perform it at the VMA's to make that judgment. Plus it keeps gaining on radio. It's currently at 11 on pop radio.
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Will they perform that snorefest at the VMA's? They will be the FO of this year then 
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Member Since: 11/27/2008
Posts: 78,826
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Miley
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Member Since: 12/15/2011
Posts: 13,205
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Congrats bruno, smashing with a flop. 
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Get Lucky's digital sales are a bit underwhelming.
But then it had no mv so.
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,437
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Quote:
Originally posted by Apollō
He can't block her - he'll have weakened even in airplay by then - but he actually could still snatch it after she gets her week, or her two weeks if she's really lucky. She could get a third week, but personally I think that's about as likely as her handing us ARTPOP on a silver platter a month early and for free. He'll be back to #1 after a short intermission from Gaga, with the record still possibly in his sights.
Just a 7.5% increase will get him the record. |
It won't be that weakened in the next 3 1/2 weeks. "Mirrors", for example, peaked and stayed in the same area of impressions for 4 weeks, hardly declining and having random small increases. Considering "Blurred Lines" is a bigger radio hit and has other formats that will also hold on to it for the next few weeks like Pop, I wouldn't doubt he is barely down to 170-180 million (Nielsen) by the time "Applause" premieres. That's not including the 260-280k he could still be pushing and the gigantic streaming.
She can go No. 1 if her sales are really strong, though.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Rico Shameless v2
It won't be that weakened in the next 3 1/2 weeks. "Mirrors", for example, peaked and stayed in the same area of impressions for 4 weeks, hardly declining and having random small increases. Considering "Blurred Lines" is a bigger radio hit and has other formats that will also hold on to it for the next few weeks like Pop, I wouldn't doubt he is barely down to 170-180 million (Nielsen) by the time "Applause" premieres. That's not including the 260-280k he could still be pushing and the gigantic streaming.
She can go No. 1 if her sales are really strong, though.
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They will be. I'm confident she'll have enough sales to pull far ahead, a probable radio deal, and if she's smart (or her label is) an immediate Spotify release and a YouTube audio/lyric video. She'll have a week at #1 for sure, and the possible second week comes from any potential streaming and sales boosts from the VMA performance to lessen the second week drop. The only way I see my third week happening is if she delivers a brilliant, shorter-than-LOTR music video that has a huge affect on her streaming and another week of upheld good sales, but it would have to actually be released that week in addition to being her next "Bad Romance", neither of which I can guarantee at all and one of which is rather unlikely to be honest. In all, she'll probably get 1 to 2 weeks and BL will take over once again to come for Mariah's Hot 100 weave.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Is the next Gaga single called "Applause"?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Is the next Gaga single called "Applause"?
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Yep! 
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Member Since: 3/15/2013
Posts: 3,480
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#2  ugh we only need good radio updates
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Member Since: 10/21/2011
Posts: 6,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by Apollō
They will be. I'm confident she'll have enough sales to pull far ahead, a probable radio deal, and if she's smart (or her label is) an immediate Spotify release and a YouTube audio/lyric video. She'll have a week at #1 for sure, and the possible second week comes from any potential streaming and sales boosts from the VMA performance to lessen the second week drop. The only way I see my third week happening is if she delivers a brilliant, shorter-than-LOTR music video that has a huge affect on her streaming and another week of upheld good sales, but it would have to actually be released that week in addition to being her next "Bad Romance", neither of which I can guarantee at all and one of which is rather unlikely to be honest. In all, she'll probably get 1 to 2 weeks and BL will take over once again to come for Mariah's Hot 100 weave.
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Keep dreaming 
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Member Since: 10/21/2011
Posts: 6,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by KhaleesiMiley
#2 ugh we only need good radio updates |
and two performances at least, JAY LENO and ELLEN 
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Banned
Member Since: 9/1/2012
Posts: 10,317
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Quote:
Originally posted by Apollō
They will be. I'm confident she'll have enough sales to pull far ahead, a probable radio deal, and if she's smart (or her label is) an immediate Spotify release and a YouTube audio/lyric video. She'll have a week at #1 for sure, and the possible second week comes from any potential streaming and sales boosts from the VMA performance to lessen the second week drop. The only way I see my third week happening is if she delivers a brilliant, shorter-than-LOTR music video that has a huge affect on her streaming and another week of upheld good sales, but it would have to actually be released that week in addition to being her next "Bad Romance", neither of which I can guarantee at all and one of which is rather unlikely to be honest. In all, she'll probably get 1 to 2 weeks and BL will take over once again to come for Mariah's Hot 100 weave.
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1st week-#1 hype+if the song is awesome
2nd week-#1 VMA performance
3rd week-#1 video views
4th week-top 3
perfect plan
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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I just listened to "We Can't Stop" and wow, Molly really did it, one of the best pop songs of this year
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Member Since: 2/15/2012
Posts: 15,569
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Here's the thing. Robin has been selling more than 300K for 7 weeks now. And he has massive US promo lined up for his album release week.
He won't be considerably weaker in streaming either. He's held off Miley on Spotify, and his YT views are still incredible. He's got 1,704,137 on-demand streams from Spotify alone, in addition to other streaming sites like Muve, rdio, etc.
I mean, we know that her audio video would get a large amount of fan views for streaming, but really. How many of those will be US views? There's no way of telling whether those would be enough of a buffer. Her fanbase isn't local to the US after all. And there's no indication of how well she would do on Spotify either. Not a lot of female pop artists have been able to top it, except for Carly and Rihanna.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by znake
Keep dreaming |
If you're going to argue with me, use some logic to tell me why I'm wrong.  I laid out my reasons and said that one week was most likely - do you have a problem with that?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by ClashAndBurn
Here's the thing. Robin has been selling more than 300K for 7 weeks now. And he has massive US promo lined up for his album release week.
He won't be considerably weaker in streaming either. He's held off Miley on Spotify, and his YT views are still incredible. He's got 1,704,137 on-demand streams from Spotify alone, in addition to other streaming sites like Muve, rdio, etc.
I mean, we know that her audio video would get a large amount of fan views for streaming, but really. How many of those will be US views? There's no way of telling whether those would be enough of a buffer. Her fanbase isn't local to the US after all. And there's no indication of how well she would do on Spotify either. Not a lot of female pop artists have been able to top it, except for Carly and Rihanna.
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I think that in a month, Robin will be pulling (perhaps slightly) weaker numbers from streaming and sales. It might be true that we have little indication as to how well Gaga will do with streaming in the US, but given the hype around all of her video releases and the first weeks of her last pre-album singles, I'd be willing to bet that if the song is good she will have pretty impressive streaming numbers for at least the first few weeks and the video week (whenever that may be).
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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If Gaga's new single and video are in the vein of Bad Romance, it could be a big streaming monster, I think. Doesn't it have over 500 million streams in the US (which is the reason why it's 10x platinum on RIAA)?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by umichgrad07
If Gaga's new single and video are in the vein of Bad Romance, it could be a big streaming monster, I think. Doesn't it have over 500 million streams in the US (which is the reason why it's 10x platinum on RIAA)?
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Yep. Her streaming numbers are actually very strong during her release periods, compared to most of her peers anyway:
Quote:
Nielsen BDS: Top 10 Artists - Streams (2011)
Artist Streams
1 Lady Gaga 135,606,000
2 Rihanna 131,351,000
3 Nicki Minaj 126,244,000
4 Adele 123,642,000
5 Taylor Swift 123,585,000
6 Eminem 114,023,000
7 Beyonce 104,002,000
8 Britney Spears 82,738,000
9 Katy Perry 78,789,000
10. LMFAO 71,371,000
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All she needs is for the single to be good.
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Member Since: 6/2/2011
Posts: 9,459
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Miley at #2
Blocked once again by a monster hit
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