So it's late September. All the Oscarbait is comming out!

Who's got the buzz? Who's got the wins? Who you see winning it? We start now and don't end til Nomination day!

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress

-----Always The Wildcards-----

Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Documentary
Best Animated Feature
Best Foreign Film

I'm bitter. Thanks alot SAG!

Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash!
Munich
Walk the Line

alt. GNAGL


Best Director
George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Paul Haggis, Crash
Steven Spielberg, Munich

Best Actor
Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

alt. David Straithairn, Good Night and Good Luck

Best Actress
Dame Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
alt. Charlize ****ing Theron, North Country

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney, Syriana
Clifton Collins Jr., Capote
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
William Hurt, A History of Violence

alt.. Don Cheadle, Crash

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello , A History of Violence
Catherine Keener, Capote
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

alt. Frances McDormand, that ****** **** piece of ****/ScarJo, Match Point/Thandie Newton, Crash

Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

alt. Pride and Prejudice

Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Junebug
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale

alt. Cache

Animated Feature
Howl's Moving Castle
Madagascar
Wallace and Gromit: The Search for the Were-Rabbit

Documentary
March of the Penguins
Mad Hot Ballroom
Rize
Darwin's Nightmare
Favela Rising


Foreign Film
The Child
C.R.A.Z.Y.
Joyeux Noel
Sophie Scholl
Tsotsi

Best Picture
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Goodnight And Good Luck
3. Capote
------------------------------
4. Crash
5. Walk The Line

Threat: Munich

Thinking a split...

Best Director
1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
2. George Clooney, Goonight and Good Luck
----------------------------------------
3. David Cronenberg, A History Of Violence
4. Steven Speilberg, Munich
5. Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardner

Threat: Paul Haggis, Crash

Paul might replace Fernando cuz God hates me and must reward Crash.

Best Actor
1. Phillip Seymoure Hoffman, Capote
2. Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
3. Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line
4. David Strathairn, Goodnight And Good Luck
----------------------------------------------
5. Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow

Threat: Russel Crowe, Cinderella Man

It's gonna be Terrence, Russel or Ralph Finnes in the final slot. I'm hedging towards Terrence for now.

Best Actress
1. Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
2. Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
3. Dame Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
4. Charlize Theron, North Country
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Joan Allen, The Upside Of Anger

Threat: Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs Of A Geisha

Rather see Ziyi instead of Charlize, but she's fighting Joan and Keira Knightly for the final slot.

Best Supporting Actor
1. George Clooney, Syriana
2. Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
3. Don Cheadle, Crash
4. Jake Gylennhall, Brokeback Mountain
5. Matt Dillon, Crash

Threat: William Hurt, A History Of Violence

Yeah, this one's done. Maybe they'll give Don a makeup trophy.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
2. Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardner
3. Catherine Keener, Capote
4. Amy Adams, Junebug
5. Gong Li, Memoirs Of A Geisha

Threat: Maria Bello, A History of Violence

Rachel's got two, looks to get the sweep next. But let's put Zhang Ziyi here for her awesome performance in 2046. Please?

Best Original Screenplay
1. The Squid And The Whale
2. Goodnight And Good Luck
3. Crash
4. Match Point
------------------------------------
5. Cache

Threat: The 40-Year-Old Virgin

I WILL NOT PUT CINDERFELLA MAN THERE, DAMN IT!

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Brokeback Mountain
2. Capote
3. A History Of Violence
4. The Constant Gardner
------------------------------------
5. Walk The Line

Threat: Munich

Best Documentary
1. March of The Penguins
2. Mad Hot Balloon
3. Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room
4. Murderball
-----------------------------------
5. Favela Rising

Threat: Occupation: Dreamland

Best Animated Feature
1. Wallace And Gromit Meet The Were-Rabbit
2. Howl's Moving Castle
3. Chicken Little

Threat: The Corpse Bride

Best Foreign Film
1. Tsotsi (South Africa)
2. Paradise Now (Palestine)
3. Joyeux Noël (France)
-------------------------------------
4. CRAZY (Canada)
5. The Promise (China)

Threat: Sophie Scholl (Germany)

Notes:

Start: Brokeback will make the final 5 but will not win since they won Venice and history goes against them. George Clooney as a multi-Oscar nom? Could be!

10.21: ATKM has been pushed back to 2006, which opens a hole for Munich should it get out in time. Wallace and Gromit have the box office clout and the critical buzz to be a lock. North Country and Tsotsi could be the sleepers for this, as their is serious buzz to take in consideration.

11.01: Very concerned about the lack of buzz for Memoirs and The New World, and with WTL and Brokeback steaming it could mean some fun for a change. The Squid And The Whale's buzz and b.o. (decent) success might be enough for Laura and maybe Jeff if they don't like Heath.

11.06: Added a couple nods for Munich - although I have never seen Eric Bana as anything but mediocre, I'll give a benefit that Munich will be the leader in noms this time around. Knocked Jarhead down due to buzz and the $ won't convince me to move Chicken Little as a lock for Animated...it's still fighting the better buzz of Howl's.

11.17: Slid in some P&P possibles...not biting just yet. Also moved Favela Rising up since Grizzly Man got left off the Doc Longlist. I'm really tempted to drop Munich until the reviews come in since it looks like overly obvious Oscarbait and even the Academy frowns on that sometimes.

11.24: Moving WTL into a lock position for BP, thanks to the astounding buzz and the bo being good. Memoirs' sketchy reviews are killing it while P&P's box office is making it a dark horse to sneak in. (Early predict: NBR will call WTL or Syriana best picture of the year)

11.30: Moved Clooney to Support for Syriana and moved Linney up to Lead for Squid&Whale. Also started the scale line - above is a lock, below is a maybe. All will most certainly change come Dec 7. If Munich wins the NBR prize, just cancel the rest and hand it the Oscar.

12.12: Downfall should be reentered by Germany just for laughs with all the lists it made THIS week. It would have been the clear Oscar winner, instead of loosing to the much weaker Sea Inside last year. Anyways, added Keener and moved Capote right behind Violence in the chase for BP, stregthened Brokeback's hold on the nominations lead, and finally put in Knightly for the 5th slot since clearly only four females have made their presence known to get a damn nod. Munich needs a really really impressive list of nominations come GG to stay in the hunt.

12.13: Bye Munich! And is Kung-Fu Hustle China's Oscar selection? And Jake...no, you are not getting a nom for "Jarhead" no matter what you think, so go and campaign for BBM!

01.05: SAGs lock up the Brokeback run, even if Jake's been rather stupid. Put Don in over Matt since I think they like Cheadle more. Basically made SuppActress finished since only Maria Bello might be the one at risk. And can we decide on a fifth female yet? Eliminated Kong and Munich.

01.16: Dropped Bello to also ran with Rachel's win for SupActress. And I wish 2046 was China or Taiwan's choice for Foreign Film, since I was it today and it's a stunning film. And Zhang Ziyi and Gong Li both rocked the hell out of their roles in it.

01.27: Few days left, did some touch ups. Violence still has a chance and I still think Munich is dead (besides the obvious Speilberg nod) until otherwise noted. And no, I will not just presume Crash gets the last BP nod, even with two SupActor noms.

01.29: Gawd damn Crash messing things up. And I've resigned myself to the fact that Munich is getting a nod even if I don't want it to.

Howl's Moving Castle will win Best Animated.

Reese is going for Supporting (she will have a better chance to win).

Heath and Jake will both be going for Lead - whether they or not they both get nominated I have no idea!

wow mikal you seem to know your stuff, man....im impressed.

Eh, not really. It's still early and most of the Buzz films won't be out for another month.

We'll see how quickly I dump these come National Board of Review day. That totally redid my noms last year.

Did Transamerica get good reviews? It looks interesting and it looks like Felicity Huffman put a lot into this movie. I want to see it, a long with Brokeback Mountain. I loved Charlize Theron in North Country, I hope she gets a nom in 06.

Dunno about Transamerica (North Country got mixed ones) but Charlize and Felicity are getting raves about their roles in NC and TA (as is Francis for NC). It'll depend on if the buzz can be sustained since NC is not doing great at the theaters and TA is only in limited.

*ponders if Walk The Line can get enough of a box office push to make the final 5*

I'm glad to join you guys.
Some updates:
*Jarhead got mixed to decent reviews, so a best picture nomination seems too hard to get now. Peter Sasgaard maintains the best supp.actor possibility though.
*There have been some changes in "The Family Stone"'s campaign. Now SJP will go for a best lead actress nod, while Diane Keaton will go supporting. This makes it almost impossible for SJP and almost a lock status for Keaton. The BP chances are minimal though,
*Munich's trailer has leaked and the buzz around is even bigger. Almost a lock now. Eric Bana rises his chances in the best actor category.

All this time I've been making this thing, which indicates the level of buzz around the oscar.

Red = Front Runner (will get "Lock" status when the background turns black)
Orange = Likely to be nominated, just behind the front runners
Black = Other possibilities


Answering the Transamerica question. There are not that much reviews available, but Felicity Huffman won the best Actress award in the Tribecca film festival. So far, critics say that it's not a drama, that it's a dramedy, some sort of tv movie, but they all agree that Huffman's performance is outstanding.

How much influence will Tribecca have at the end, since the reviews I've seen have been downing the movie as a whole (not meaning Felcitt's in danger on not a nod since Lead Actress lacks...anything, really)

And afer having just read what The Family Stone is about...good lord, that plotline sucks ass. Yeah sure SJP is a total horseface but making a film about hating the eldest kid's new girlfriend is random and rtaher stupid. Maybe I should pencil Diane in for a victory already -_-

The reviews for Transamerica are not that flattering, but remember an Oscar rule: a movie doesn't have to be good to have a great performance, specially with actresses.

About the Family Stone, I know the plot sounds not that good, but I suggest you watch the trailer for it (you can find in in movies.com), cuz it looks like a good quality christmas-season family comedy, with a great cast.

Mikal - the reason F. Huff has a good chance is due to one word: HARVEY. He has a lot to prove this season, so look for him to do EVERYTHING in his power to get her (and Dench) in.

Cucu, great list- just some quibbles.

1) Munich is now going in Adapted, which will make Adapted A BITCH this year.
2) Richardson is Lead in TWC, her mother and aunt (the Redgraves) are supporting.

thanks for the corrections.

Yeah, Weinstein can do anything to get into the Oscars, and I think he might at least put one of those ladies in, if not both (which actually seems possible now).

No changes over the past two days. Guess we'll have to wait around 1 week to check out all the important reviews on Walk The Line and some other movies to see if the buzz changes. By the way, Cinderella Man is having a re-release, just to remind Academy Voters of it. I still don't think it has any chances on the lead categories.

Best Picture
-Brokeback Mountain
-Good Night, and Good Luck
-Memoirs of a Geisha
-The New World
-The White Countess

Best Actor
-Ralph Fiennes - The White Countess
-Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
-Tommy Lee Jones - Los Tres entierros de Melquiades Estrada
-Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
-Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line

Best Actress
-Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
-Natasha Richardson - The White Countess
-Charlize Theron - North Country
-Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
-Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Supporting Actor
-Matt Dillon - Crash
-Jamie Foxx - Jarhead
-Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
-Frank Langella - Good Night, and Good Luck
-Hiroyuki Sanada - The White Countess

Best Supporting Actress
-Maria Bello - A History of Violence
-Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
-Thandie Newton - Crash
-Michelle Yeoh - Memoirs of a Geisha
-Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener

Best Director

-George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
-Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
-Terrence Malick - The New World
-Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha
-Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener

Here are the new stats:

Red = Frontrunner
Yellow = Likely to get nominated
Black = Possible
Grey = Long Shot (still possible though)



Some of the big changes:
*Peter Sasgaard is off from the best supp. actor for Jarhead
*Keira Knightley rises her chances to yellow after the large amount of raves for her performance.
*Joan Allen is not longer a frontrunner. Now Judi Dench is.
*2 Locks now: Crash for best original screenplay and Phillip S. Hoffman for best actor.
*4 frontrunners in the best director category.

Post your comments please.

Daniel Craig or Geffory Rush...who's getting the Munich slot in supporting? I said Rush (since I doubt the Academy will give NuBond a nod) but can both make it?

maybe both of them since the category is sooo weak.

Picture:

Rent
Walk the Line
Brokeback Mountain
King Kong
The Producers

Director:

Ralph Fiennes-Constant Gardener
Steven Spielberg-Munich
George Clooney-Good Night, and Good Luck
James Mangold-Walk the Line
Peter Jackson-King Kong

Actor:

Joaquin Phoenix-Walk the Line
Eric Bana-Munich
Heath Ledger-Casanova
Russell Crowe-Cinderella Man
Cilian Murphy-Breakfast on Pluto

Actress:

Keira Knightly-Pride & Prejudice
Rosario Dawson-Rent
Julianne Moore-Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio
Judi Dench-Mrs. Henderson Presents
Natasha Richardson-White Countess

Supporting Actor:

Matt Damon-Syriana
Ben Kingsley-Oliver Twist
Jack Black-King Kong
Jake Gyllenhaal-Brokeback Mountain
Ed Harris-History of Violence

Supporting Actress:

Diane Keaton-Family Stone
Laura Linney-Squid and the Whale
Shirley McLaine-In Her Shoes
Uma Thurman-Producers
Tracie Thoms-Rent

Original Screenplay:

A History of Violence
Crash
The Family Stone
Good Night, and Good Luck
The New World

Adapted Screenplay:

King Kong
Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe
The Producers
Rent
Munich

Here are my predictions.

Picture
Munich
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk The Line
Brokeback Mountain
The New World

Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Eric Bana, Munich
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
David Straithaim, Goodnight and Good Luck

Actress
Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs of a Geisha
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Charlie Theron, North Country

Supporting Actor
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Syriana
Geoffrey Rush, Munich
Matt Dillon, Crash
Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Supporting Actress
Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
Scarlett Johansson, Match Point
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Diane Keaton, The Family Stone
Uma Thurman, The Producers

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, Munich
James Mangold, Walk the Line
Rob Marshall, Memoirs of a Geisha
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Malick, The New World

I hope Reese wins.