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Movie: Potter's opening record to be challenged soon
Member Since: 2/17/2010
Posts: 21,811
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Potter's opening record to be challenged soon
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A little less than ten years ago, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone established a new opening weekend record when it debuted to $90.3 million. Since then, that record has been held by Spider-Man ($114.8 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($135.6 million), Spider-Man 3 ($151.1 million) and The Dark Knight ($158.4 million). Just a few days ago, Potter reclaimed the top spot, with serious finale Deathly Hallows Part 2 scoring a massive $169.2 million. Looking at the upcoming release schedule, Potter may not hold the crown for very long. Here are the Top Five contenders through the end of 2012:
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) (Nov. 18): While it will likely pain Potter fans to hear this, there's a realistic possibility that the first part of the Twilight finale will establish a new opening weekend record. New Moon, the last Twilight movie to open in November, scored a huge $142.8 million in its first weekend. The following Summer, Eclipse burned off demand with a mid-week debut, but ultimately went on to become the highest-grossing entry in the series with just over $300 million. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 was also the first part of a two-part finale and opened on the same weekend last November, and ended up being the top opening weekend for the Potter series by 22 percent. A similar bump would place Breaking Dawn (Part One) at $173 million, which would set a new record.
The Avengers (May 4, 2012): After five movies that essentially served as mega-budgeted advertisements, The Avengers will finally reach theaters on the prime first-weekend-of-summer slot, when Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3 set their benchmarks in the past. Iron Man 2 debuted to $128.1 million on this weekend in 2010, and The Avengers will essentially function as Iron Man 3 with some new friends along for the ride. While none of those new friends are quite as popular as Tony Stark (Thor currently leads the way with $179.7 million, though Captain America could top that), their meet-up should make this a formidable event movie. If audiences haven't completely rebelled against 3D by next May, an opening north of $150 million for The Avengers feels like a foregone conclusion.
The Dark Knight Rises (July 20, 2012): When Deathly Hallows Part 2 broke The Dark Knight's opening weekend record, all eyes immediately jumped a year ahead to July 20, 2012, when The Dark Knight Rises will attempt to reclaim the title. The recently released teaser trailer billed it as the "The Epic Conclusion to the Dark Knight Legend," clearly stating that this is the definitive end of the Christopher Nolan Batman trilogy. Typically, that ensures a significantly higher opening (look no further than Deathly Hallows Part 2 for evidence of this). However, the teaser trailer has failed to generate the same kind of enthusiasm as the similarly-timed teasers for The Dark Knight and Nolan's Inception, and there's virtually no way the combination of Bane and Catwoman can come close to matching the hype surrounding Heath Ledger's rendition of the Joker. This is nit-picking, though, and it's hard to imagine The Dark Knight Rises opening below $150 million.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part Two) (Nov. 16, 2012): Similar to Deathly Hallows Part 2 and The Dark Knight Rises, there's a major advantage to being able to say that Breaking Dawn (Part Two) is probably the conclusion of the Twilight series (though it feels less certain in this case). Breaking Dawn (Part Two) should open higher than Breaking Dawn (Part One), which already seems poised to contest Deathly Hallows's record.
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Dec. 14, 2012): Since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King earned over $1.1 billion worldwide and won 11 Academy Awards, legions of fans have been eagerly awaiting The Hobbit. The first of two prequels is guaranteed to earn epic amounts of money, but unfortunately an opening weekend record probably isn't on the forecast. The reason is quite simple: December releases open comparatively low then hold well through the Holidays. At the very least, though, The Hobbit should unseat I Am Legend ($77.2 million) to claim a new December record.
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I would be really sad if Twilight breaks HP's records.
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Member Since: 5/27/2010
Posts: 37,025
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None of those except TDKR are dewin it.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,413
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Member Since: 11/20/2010
Posts: 12,356
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrPeanut
None of those except TDKR are dewin it.
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Don't underestimate the power of the Twilight fans! Especially, since it's down to the final 2 movies for the franchise to conclude.
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Member Since: 5/27/2010
Posts: 37,025
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Quote:
Originally posted by LightandDarkness
Don't underestimate the power of the Twilight fans! Especially, since it's down to the final 2 movies for the franchise to conclude.
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I think if they were in 3D they could stand a chance. New Moon actually had more admissions opening weekend than DH2.
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Member Since: 3/18/2008
Posts: 40,057
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The only competition IMO is Breaking Dawn.
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Member Since: 9/13/2009
Posts: 22,181
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None of them basic hoes gonna topple Queen Harry.
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Member Since: 5/27/2010
Posts: 37,025
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By next year TDK's opening weekend adjusted for inflation would be $180m. I don't see the follow-up to such a universally well-received film opening to much less.
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Member Since: 12/31/2010
Posts: 26,257
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Quote:
Originally posted by HarrySapphire
None of them basic hoes gonna topple Queen Harry.
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Yesss! Nothing but the true tea.
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Member Since: 6/20/2010
Posts: 15,376
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Quote:
Originally posted by MrPeanut
None of those except TDKR are dewin it.
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Exactly, and none of them will have a shot at the foreign and worldwide opening record, so I'm good!
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Member Since: 5/27/2010
Posts: 37,025
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Quote:
Originally posted by MonstahNL
Exactly, and none of them will have a shot at the foreign and worldwide opening record, so I'm good!
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Yeah, Harry can rest easy on those for awhile.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 9/26/2001
Posts: 22,475
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Quote:
Originally posted by Gui Blackout
The only competition IMO is Breaking Dawn.
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Really? Even if you ignore the argument that Breaking Dawn is going to be competition for DHP2, how is TDKR NOT? I mean, the sequel to the film that shattered the previous record is seriously not competition? Come on.
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Member Since: 11/20/2010
Posts: 12,356
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Some of you guys are going to be shocked when the receipts come out for Twilight later this year!
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Member Since: 10/2/2009
Posts: 18,322
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Eventually a movie will come and snatch that record, so whether it will be next year or few years from now, we'll have to wait and see.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 8,561
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Battleship will shatter all records.
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Member Since: 4/26/2007
Posts: 15,585
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I don't even think HP will overgross TDK total box office =(
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Member Since: 5/27/2010
Posts: 37,025
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Quote:
Originally posted by z|| Mr. Loko ||z
I don't even think HP will overgross TDK total box office =(
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It will worldwide. Batman is bigger in the US than anywhere else, whereas HP is much bigger internationally.
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Member Since: 9/23/2009
Posts: 12,662
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Member Since: 3/30/2009
Posts: 9,982
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TDKR and BD2 are very possible, as long they don't open on a Wednesday, like the last two Twilight movies did (I think, I know at least one did).
Quote:
Originally posted by z|| Mr. Loko ||z
I don't even think HP will overgross TDK total box office =(
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Definitely not in the US, HP will be more frontloaded than TDK.
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Member Since: 11/20/2010
Posts: 12,356
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Twilight is opening on Thanksgiving week!
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