Banned
Member Since: 7/27/2010
Posts: 6,104
|
Rihanna's Reb'l Fleur Thread
Quote:
On Wednesday, May 25, after the market closes, Parlux Fragrances (PARL) will release its annual results for its fiscal year ended March 31 and projections for fiscal year 2012.
The perfume industry has done very well lately. Inter Parfumes (IPAR), Parlux's competitor, had record sales and earnings last quarter. Although IPAR and PARL both sell in the same stores like Macy's and Dillards, PARL has a different kind of product. PARL uses many celebrities to represent its products, and IPAR doesn't.
Assuming most people reading this report are men, realize that celebrities can sometimes have a very strong influence on women. You can see this demonstrated in the video links below.
I believe both PARL's annual results and projections will be strong. I have a few reasons for my prediction, but the main reason is ... Rihanna! I predict Rihanna's perfume, Reb'l Fleur, which was launched in January of this year, will report excellent sales for quarter 4, and a good outlook for fiscal year 2012. There are three reasons for this:1. Rihanna is marketing it like crazy, and so is Macy's. When I was in the Macy's on Herald's Square a couple weeks ago, I noticed it has a huge section for Parlux Fragrances and especially Reb'l Fleur in the front of the fragrance section as you walk in -- a prime spot. Sales at Macy's stores rose 5.4% last quarter, which means it's getting more foot traffic than in the previous year. This video shows Rihanna promoting it in the mall; notice the Macy's logo is next to the Reb'l Fleur logo. Here's another video of Rihanna at Macy's.
2. The third most popular celebrity fragrance in the US is Beyonce's Heat. That's proof that a black female pop singer can have an extremely popular perfume. Rihanna's perfume may end up being more popular than Beyonce's. Reb'l Fleur's promotional video on Youtube got 1.1 million hits since being put up on February 10. Beyonce's Heat video on Youtube has 2 million hits and it has been around since January 2010. In half a year, the Reb'l Fleur video is on target to have more views than the Heat video.
In its first month, Heat had $3 million in sales and was sold exclusively at Macy's. And that's only the first month and just at Macy's. If Rihanna's perfume sells $10 million in revenues for the quarter ending March 31, that would make a huge impact on the quarter. For the same quarter last year, Parlux only had $17.7 million in total revenues (although keep in mind that's net revenues).
3. Rihanna is very hot worldwide right now, and her concerts are usually sold out in every country she tours in. Reb'l Fleur is sold worldwide.
Paris Hilton and Jessica Simpson's perfumes, both sold by Parlux, are still very popular and their sales have grown since last year. Hilton's and Simpson's perfume sales grew by $6.4 million and $1 million, respectively, during the nine months ended December 31, 2010 over the same period the previous year. Parlux's Queen Latifah sales, however, have dropped by $4.5 million during that period.
Turns out Rihanna's perfume, Reb'l Fleur, had $9 million worth of revenues in the 4th quarter, $1 million less than my prediction.
From comparing Beyonce's perfume's success of $3 million sales the first month, and seeing the various youtube videos and the amount of views, and from related articles, I was able to predict with decent accuracy the successful initial launch of Reb'l Fleur.
|
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2717...rnings-preview
UPDATE
Okay, Adam Gefvert gave his predictions for Reb'l Fleur's success in the upcoming quarter!
Quote:
OK, I checked it out. My gut tells me they'll do well, but the company is doing such unconventional marketing tactics this quarter, it's hard to say.
They're doing commercials on American Idol back to back Rihanna, Hilton, and Simpson. They're going into theaters everywhere to play the Rihanna commercial and then hand out smell samples.
Paris Hilton's new show got bad reviews. But that might not matter because she's back in the limelight now and fans will like her show regardless of what the critics say. Her perfume should have increased sales from it.
I really have to say I don't know on this one. Although with such great valuations, I don't think there's much downside risk to this stock. I'm holding for now, will lighten my load if it goes above 3.6 before next quarters earnings report. Sometimes inaction is the best action.
|
This article was posted in January but I found it very interesting.
Quote:
Rihanna joins the pack of celebrities who've created their own fragrances. Today marks the launch of her very first perfume in Macy's stores across the U.S. Rihanna took the nickname her grandmother gave her, Reb'l Fleur ("rebel flower") as the name for her scent. It actually also pays tribute to her 14th tattoo. In developing the scent, this singer from Barbados was very hands on, driven by creating something that not only showed her Bajan roots and her life in New York and Los Angeles, but reflected her persona and style. Of course, the Rihanna, the trendsetter that she is, would use fashion to sum up her perfume. She described, "it's like high heels with a short, flirty dress." The bottle itself is actually designed to look like the heel of a high-heel shoe. Of course, now you're wondering what would that smell like? I was certainly wondering the same. Here are the various notes and scents that Rihanna called on for her "Rebel Flower."
To give you another idea of the scent, I poked around the blogosphere and found that people are comparing it to Calvin Klein Euphoria (a fragrance I happen to own and love!), saying that if you like that, then you'll like Rihanna's fruity-floral-musky scent.
Reb'l Fleur will surely get a lot of promotional play. It's planned to go international in the next three months or so. And looking at a quote from industry experts in the WWD, it looks like the singing sensation would will likely "take a bow" for this endeavour too. The fragrance is predicted "to bring in $25 million in sales after 15 months."
|
Yes it's and old articles but I found it interesting and I really hope it does as predicted. 
http://shopping.aol.com/articles/201...hanna-perfume/
Purchase Rihanna's Reb'l Fleur here: http://bit.ly/j3JDD5
|
|
|
|
