I think we should wait for the promo - Oprah(?), American Idol, GMA, video, etc - before we judge that

I think the label may ship 1M copies and send it Platinum first week

500k

650k. (I hope more!)

Honestly I think the only number I'd be really disappointed with is less than 350k, and I highly doubt that's happening...

You act as though "Judas" hasn't had any promo whatsoever. Ellen was promo for her. Those things are not guaranteed to push "Judas" to the top.

Her videos are really important for her songs. The video will help it I have no doubt there. It's already starting to gain back. Also, all other Gaga singles were slow climbers, except BTW. It's doing just as I thought. I didn't expect it to be #1 on the Hot 100 for several weeks just after its release.

Oh, and Ellen is not a huge promo single-wise considering that daytime shows usually don't really affect iTunes position that much, but they give awareness that the album is coming to older people, which is good for the album.

.... @ half you folk.

Her selling 200-400 for her first week is delusional.

Here are today's Amazon pre-order positions.
12 (BTW expanded).
74 (BTW standard).

So, taking all of that in mind, and bearing in mind that this is -after- the ordeal with Target, which is how I ordered BTw, I would have to say that anyone saying she's going to sell less than 200k is ****ing stupid. -_-

Furthermore, the promo that she has for the next few weeks, albeit the album doesn't leak in a similar fashion that Femme Fatale did for instance, she should have no trouble selling at least 300k in the first week. Now, I would have to say that it's probably far too optimistic to hope for 1M sales; however, I think anywhere from 500-800K seems certainly plausible.

However, my guess is that the album will fall somewhere between 500 and 600K, similar to Britney's Circus album (I would say that it'll sell a bit more than Circus though, all things considered).

Ellen was never going to push Judas to the top, but it moved it from #21 to #15 on iTunes. With Oprah, the video and whatever the AI surprise is this week, I don't think we can say promotion is in full swing as of now. We'll see on Friday...

#Oop.