Mumford & Sons have the best chance because they fuse country, folk, and rock in their music - those are the Academy's favorite genres.
Florence + The Machine would have a better chance if they weren't only known for one song, but they could still pull an upset, especially since they've had a lot of buzz in the months following their VMA performance.
Justin Bieber has the next-best chance because everyone in the Academy will know who he is, and he will get a lot of votes from pop and R&B fans in the NARAS.
Drake and Esperanza are the least likely to win. They won't get many votes aside from Academy voters who specialize in rap and jazz, respectively.
