Right now the big thing helping TS3 is box office and the critics. And the fact that a couple of the faves have started drifting since intial release (127 Hours, Black Swan). Yeah it's major competition is The King's Speech and The Social Network (Inception's getting a nod but I can't see it being a major player) and maybe The Fighter but in a weird-looking year it could finally be the one to make the break.
Not that I'm not still bitter Slumdog Millionaire still has Wall-E's Best Picture Oscar that the fools would'nt even nominate it for...