If Trey can get 200K+ with a Top 20 hit
Nelly can sure do 200K+ with a Top 10 hit
Trey has been on the rise for some time, though. He had a show on BET and enjoys a fanbase comprised of mostly horny women (and we know horny women can drive sales). Not sure I can say the same for Nelly.
Nelly could do 125-150K. BN opened with 84K in 2008 with only failed singles. He has a hit now & his sales will be inflated by the fast-approaching Holiday season.
He won't even be competiton for the other releases though.