Member Since: 5/27/2016
Posts: 8,967
|
Professor who predicted Trump win, also predicts impeachment
Quote:
At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call: That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.
“I'm going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system, it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
So while Republican voters clearly came home before Nov. 8 — network exit polls show 90 percent of GOP voters cast ballots for Trump — it's less clear that the party leadership is on board. (Lichtman actually isn't the only person to predict a Trump impeachment; this morning, the New York Times's David Brooks suggested a Trump impeachment or resignation was “probably” in the cards sometime within the next year.)
It's worth noting that Lichtman's predictions use very different methods than pollsters and data-based prognosticators. Some statisticians take issue with the structure of his system, a set of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary nature of his keys leads to what's called “overfitting,” which is basically creating a system that fits the data but has little statistical significance. But Lichtman counters by saying that the system has correctly predicted every election since 1984 (specifically, his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based prediction
|
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-be-impeached/
|
|
|
|
