It will be hard for Viola to fight racism, Hollywood propaganda machine, jewish establishment, Academy's love for uninspired biopics and Portman's pregnancy all at once but talent always wins so see ya in 2017 Stone will cancel Natalie out among old white voters.

Of plausible nominees my picks to win would in theory be:
1. Viola Davis
2. Annette Bening
3. Emma Stone
4. Isabelle Huppert
5. Ruth Negga

1. Michelle Williams
2. Kristen Stewart
3. Naomie Harris
4. Greta Gerwig
5. Octavia Spencer

(I of course am rooting for Meryl to get a nom, but it would be two messes and a half if she were to win. Which she won't.)

Nobody is going to cancel out any of the other nominees. If Portman is really that good, better than DDL in Lincoln, nobody is going to come close to her. And honestly if anyone said either Taraji P. Henson or Ruth Negga was going to cancel out Viola's votes they'd be crucified by now.

Anyway, no one has seen Fences yet, of course they are going to speculate about the performances they have seen, opening so late in December might actually be the only reason why Viola doesn't win, if she doesn't. And her category placement is not even for sure right now, she might as well go supporting. I wonder if you'd be this opposed to Portman if it was certain that Viola was going Supporting

First trailer for Adams / Gyllehaal / Shannon film Nocturnal Creatures is coming tomorrow!

Regarding Viola possibly going supporting.

i've always been a fan of your stats, but this one is completely irrelevant

What is Viola staring in? Is there a link to a preview of the film?

Queen is coming!

Fences. I don't think we've seen anything for it yet but it's pretty well anticipated. I don't see her going supporting but it seems like studio heads want her to.

I mean it's pretty much why Jim Carrey and Cameron Diaz failed to get noms in their sporadic forays into quality despite major precursor noms - too much trash on their resumes for the Academy to forgive. But they were high profile comedies, rather than things no one really watched.

viola won't win, not enough talent tbh. Amy will snatch

Ugh I hope she pushes to get to lead.

I knew Paramount would try to sabotage her, sigh.

I mean, another black woman winning supporting... why not lead?

I mean it's obvious why...

It's NOT sabotage in fact they might be scared she won't win as lead actress so they'll do category fraud thinking she'll be able to snatch supporting instead of lead since lead will be a competitive category. Just like Rooney and Vikander last year and Vikander actually won supporting despite being lead because Soairse and Brie were the front runners.

Why would they try to sabotage their own possible win sis really? wtf.

Rooney was also lead so let's not. It can backfire hard if not handled well. They're already second guessing cuz they know Hollywood prefers white mediocrity and reviews for La La Land and Jackie have them shook.

Anyway, this seems plausible, but obviously some upset is inevitable

I need Viola to win over Portman

Cameron lost out on a nom for Being John Malkovich because she was splitting votes with Caterine Keener.

Regarding Jim Carrey, the Academy probably just hates him or something. He has proven his chops in drama acting more than enough times. Steve Carell segwayed into Oscar movies and got a nomination so easily that it's really fishy how Jim was always snubbed.

And this applies to Diaz, Carrey and Portman: just because they don't have the strongest tally of film reviews, doesn't mean their acting was panned too. Those stats you're parading around are very superficial and limp. Portman already did the impossible by shrugging off the Star Wars prequels stigma and winning an Oscar relatively soon afterwards.