Convention bounce. Polls don't show the Khan comments yet. That's coming by the end of the week.

Probably



Maybe they also stopped pretending that Nevada and Colorado are swing states

What are your swing state predictions?
I think HRC will win FL and Colorado easily. VA is in the bag as well.
Ohio is tricky. I just don't know.
PA is shifty as hell. I feel like its trending red alarmingly fast but at the same time.... Philly and Pittsburg?

Oop some of these states have moved from pale pink to pale blue on 538 and Pennsylvania with 20 electoral votes was upgraded to a slightly darker blue

Paid speeches are not a norm to release. (Mostly because you give that AFTER you're president but still. She never had intentions of running again until recently).

If Bernie's team said the Goldman Sach's speeches were used to counter attack Hillary's criticism of his gun record. There was never a legimate reason to release them. Meanwhile, Trump nor Bernie released their tax returns. You know the thing to actually see how you're spending your money on the causes you're advocating for.

Hillary's hitting all the major cities in PA hard and even trying to make dents in rural communities. Hope she pulls through.

Biggest margins of win for Hillary (Colorado. Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina)

She's going to have to fight hard for Ohio, Iowa, and NH which will be the closest.

I feel like CO, VA and NV are barely even swing states. Clinton's campaign seems to feel the same, hence the lack of campaigning.

I think she picks up FL too. I agree that OH is super tricky...I think the lack of a Kasich endorsement will hurt Trump in the end and Clinton will take it.

Obama only won PA by 5% and Appalachia is Trump's base, but I think Philly and Pitt will be enough to overcome them (as usual). Do not be fooled by the Bernie or Busters who infiltrated Philly last week---Philadelphia is pure Hillary country.

To me the most interesting states are NC and, strangely enough, GA. I expect Trump to win GA but I'm really curious to see the margin. NC is hard to predict, though that voter ID law getting tossed definitely helps Dems. I'd still give the edge to Trump but it's hard to call.

All of this is subject to change as new events unfold, of course.

I forgot IA and NH. I honestly think Trump will take NH. I think Clinton will take IA.

And don't forget the tough fight for NE-2 (aka the reason Hillary is in Nebraska today).

With the voter ID law out, I hope there will be more focus from the Clinton camp in North Carolina. She needs to bring it.

I hope that doesn't mean that New Hampshire Senate seats go Republican

Michigan and Wisconsin are not swing states despite the media hype. Hillary isn't spending money there which means internal polls are good. If it starts to get close, I think she'll dispense Bernie to campaign heavily there.

Biden and Bill will campaign hard in the close Rust Belts. Obama spend most time in the diverse states.

Just realized that SurveyUSA GA poll that has Trump +4 has him getting 14% of the black vote. If that number is really the usual sub-10% that Republicans get...

Pennsylvania/Virginia are now the same color as Colorado

Hillary wins NH (with Bernie's help). She barely wins/loses Iowa.

I could've sorta (but still not really) bought Michigan but Wisconsin? That's the HOME of the #NeverTrump Republican. No chance in hell he wins that state.

Honestly I can see her losing PA.

How are tight Senate races looking?

Could we still snatch a majority?

Hillary CAN lose PA, but there is no evidence to suggest that.

PA hates Trump more than Ohio does. PA has the big cities in her favor. And she's WAY up against him. Her average lead is bigger there than it is in Florida for example. She's winning it.

I think she's more likely to lose PA than CO/VA/NV. But I don't see PA as quite as much of a tossup as NC. I wouldn't be surprised if she lost it but I still expect her to win it.

I've starting seeing Hillary ads here though...so she knows it's competitive. No Trump ads yet. But PA has been that "THIS is the year Republicans will win it!" tease for 20 years. So I'll believe it when I see it.