Impossible to know without hearing it I would've expected way more than 130k for Rise (this is not some "drag," just my assessment of Katy's past selling power), but the song is kinda middle-of-the-road. Plus sales have really collapsed since Roar/Applause.
I think it's very dependent on the song and the context. It's really difficult to try and imagine it right now and therefore insanely difficult to imagine a comparison in performance.
Pretty much this,
At this point any speculation and opinions are just people's blind Stan goggles talking for them. We don't know a single thing about the album or single so to argue over it is just pointless
Shouldn't you compare KP4's lead with LG5 lead? And we haven't heard either yet so who knows how either will do.
Comparing Rise to Til It Happens To You seems more logical.
How is comparing a song about college campus rape, made for a small documentary, against a generic radio fodder empowerment anthem made for the olympics logical at all? Puh-lease.