Breaking: ICM have just issued a poll showing that the Leave campaign hold a five-point leave over Remain, at 48% to 43%.
It’s their regular online poll, which took place after Sky News held two debates last week - one with David Cameron, and one with Leave campaigner Michael Gove.
ICM says that the polls appear to have moved:
After a fairly tumultuous week in which both Prime Minister and Michael Gove set out their stalls on TV, ICM’s weekly tracker and indeed at least two other polls published in the last 24 hours, suggest a move to Leave might have occurred.
Our poll today has Leave on 48% (+1), Remain on 43% (-1) with Don’t Knows still on 9%. This equates to a 53% vs 47% lead for Leave.
Our poll somewhat reinforces a Yougov poll this morning which found a 4-point move to Leave, and polls from TNS and Opinium which also gave cause for concern for the Remain camp.
All these polls were conducted online, however, and outside of ICM’s unexpected leap toward Leave in our phone poll last week, no other evidence has been forthcoming from phone polls that Remain are falling back. If new phone polls do emerge with such an outcome, however, we could be more confident that – irrespective of where the actual standings are on a poll-by-poll basis – Leave have pushed on.
Turnout levels appear to be surging. Caution is always advised when it comes to polls estimating actual turnout, as polls nearly always overstate it, but the 10/10 certainty figure has nudged up to 71% now, suggesting that the public are now more engaged with the referendum than at any previous point.
I doubt it is gonna happen. Too many people are still on the fence and have no idea which way to vote. Tbh i will be surprised if we leave. Reminds me of the scottish referendum, probably will have the same result aswel..
Its not going to happen, its to big of a change and in the end people won't commit to it. Its like the Independence referendum, people thought it would be much closer but in the end the status quo won comfortably.
Its not going to happen, its to big of a change and in the end people won't commit to it. Its like the Independence referendum, people thought it would be much closer but in the end the status quo won comfortably.
The PM didn't also completely bomb a highly televised debate then.
It would be a mess,but I still don't think it will actually happen. Wait! why do I think lowkey that all these recent polls confirming exit leads are just coming out now to mobilize remain voters in even larger numbers? Anyway the left wing media better work it and the UK stays!
the majority of people who want to leave are doing it to spite Cameron and because they hate immigrants how are we supposed to know what will be best when we dont know the numbers and all each side is doing is throwing **** at eachother.
I agree its such a drastic change and the fact that some are willing to do it because there are too many Polski Sklep shops opening in their high street
how are we supposed to know what will be best when we dont know the numbers and all each side is doing is throwing **** at eachother.