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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by hooky
Calm down, I was just making an observation.
I guess analyzing the election is bad now. I guess I should just accept things the way they are, stop paying attention to politics, and vote for Hillary on May 3rd and November 8th.
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Not talking about you. I'm talking about that trash article that has more spin cycles than a washer. An early vote and an election day vote is equivalent. To separate them because the total doesn't fit with the desired result is desperate.
It's funny that some Sanders groupies are buying into that narrative though. Crying about voter suppression (which they just discovered earlier this week, congratulations to them), while discrediting early voting, which is one of the biggest ways to fight said suppression. Mess.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Not talking about you. I'm talking about that trash article that has more spin cycles than a washer. An early vote and an election day vote is equivalent. To separate them because the total doesn't fit with the desired result is desperate.
It's funny that some Sanders groupies are buying into that narrative though. Crying about voter suppression (which they just discovered earlier this week), but discrediting early voting, which is one of the biggest ways to fight said suppression. Mess.
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He did acknowledge the strong bias of the article in his original post, to be fair.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
He did acknowledge the strong bias of the article in his original post, to be fair.
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He did, which is why I said my comments aren't about him. A lot of people are taking that article to heart and I was ranting about that.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 21,143
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Every viewpoint may not be in alignment with our narrative, but it's always a good chance to check out someone else's.
@Benzene Maybe in the future just try to be careful about designing who you're referring to. I have that issue a lot, seeming like I'm mad at a particular person when I'm talking generally about some topic.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 43,104
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bloo
I was interested in how much higher Bernie's numbers were.
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Those were interesting, but not surprising 
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 10,242
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
Not talking about you. I'm talking about that trash article that has more spin cycles than a washer. An early vote and an election day vote is equivalent. To separate them because the total doesn't fit with the desired result is desperate.
It's funny that some Sanders groupies are buying into that narrative though. Crying about voter suppression (which they just discovered earlier this week, congratulations to them), while discrediting early voting, which is one of the biggest ways to fight said suppression. Mess.
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Sorry for the misunderstanding. I do agree with you on that point, early votes are important. However I do think it's important to see how well candidates are doing right now after campaigning compared to a month before.
What's the voting windows for states with early voting?
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by hooky
Sorry for the misunderstanding. I do agree with you on that point, early votes are important. However I do think it's important to see how well candidates are doing right now after campaigning compared to a month before.
What's the voting windows for states with early voting?
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No problem, I should have been more clear.
People who vote early are generally people who have made up their minds...extra campaigning would be unlikely to sway them.
The windows vary by state, usually not earlier than a month out. Some states.don't have early voting at all.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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I've seen a lot of people say Trump v Cruz would turn out more votes than Hillary v Bernie, and that because of all those Republican candidates, he lost votes which is why Hillary has more.
I completely disagree. Most of those people who voted in the Republican primary mainly want to stop him. He has a very poor favorability among Republicans. Hillary has a good favorability among Democrats. We honestly can't say what the numbers would look like had Rubio, Bush, etc. never been on the ballot.
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Member Since: 9/17/2006
Posts: 3,506
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I live in Arizona, and experienced the mess that was our Primary. People who don't live in understand, wouldn't get how our state has a reputation of 'election fraud'. We have the lowest local election turnout rates.
I waited 2 hours to spend not even 3 seconds crossing a line on the arrow for my designated candidate of choice. Two.... Hours.... In the Heat because there was no shade, and it was hooooot outside on Tuesday.
What they did was take 200 polling spots in Maricopa County (which we pretty much make up 80% of Arizona) to 60. Population breakdown, that's 108,000 voters at one precinct. I would love for ANYONE to try and tell me otherwise, but that alone was voter suppression. They somehow didn't put any polling stations near low income areas, and Latino neighborhoods, which I find disgusting and outrageous they would not put more polling places in areas ALL over, not just major "hot spots".
Oh, and our Democratic Party didn't UPDATE their voters list. So many people who changed parties, were declined to vote, because the system either never "changed" their party, or they were inputted into the incorrect party, and I believe one voter brought receipts and all for proof she did, indeed change her party way before the deadline. They got to vote via a provisional ballot, which, I don't even know if they COUNTED those yet.
CNN projected Hillary with only 1% in..... And we had thousands still in line waiting to vote. People were in line until 11:30- midnight. Like, absolute insanity.
Oh and the woman in charge of our state primary, an elected official, mind you, blamed the VOTERS for turning out. She said basically after that, "well, we have early voting for a reason"... Like, excuse me!?!? Unreal.
So, please, enlighten me HOW they can say we don't have rigged elections. Give me a ****ing break, anyone to try and say otherwise needs to seriously do some major history research. Shoot, has anyone even WATCHED CNN's "Race For The White House"?! Elections have been rigged for years. That's why we need to get away from third party electronic machines, how that is even allowed to be the counter of our votes is beyond me.
Just a mess. Severely disappointed with my states Election elected officials.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Yeah Arizona was terrible. I hope Hillary addresses it.
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Washington (polls close at 12PM CT) Alaska (1PM CT), Hawaii (6PM CT)
When I wake up, we should start having the results. YAS. No late nights. 
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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All of Marco's 5 delegates from Louisiana are going to Cruz (he and Trump originally were tied with 18 delegates). And there are also 5 unbound delegates who say they will vote for Cruz. So that's 28 for Cruz, 18 for Trump.
Let the sabotage begin. Not Lightweight Rubio coming back to destroy Trump. 
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Member Since: 1/4/2014
Posts: 3,730
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
I've seen a lot of people say Trump v Cruz would turn out more votes than Hillary v Bernie, and that because of all those Republican candidates, he lost votes which is why Hillary has more.
I completely disagree. Most of those people who voted in the Republican primary mainly want to stop him. He has a very poor favorability among Republicans. Hillary has a good favorability among Democrats. We honestly can't say what the numbers would look like had Rubio, Bush, etc. never been on the ballot.
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um she has an overall unfavorable rating since November.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Quote:
Originally posted by Andres
um she has an overall unfavorable rating since November.
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That's among all voters. (mostly Republicans and conservative leaning-Independents) Most of the exit polls from all the primaries/caucuses that have voted so far say they will be satisfied with either her or Bernie winning the GE. The Democratic base does not hate her. She's winning for gods sake.
Yes she is overwhelmingly seen as dishonest and untrustworthy among Democrats, but she is seen as more electable and experienced which is what I was referring too.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 43,104
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
Yeah Arizona was terrible. I hope Hillary addresses it.
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Washington (polls close at 12PM CT) Alaska (1PM CT), Hawaii (6PM CT)
When I wake up, we should start having the results. YAS. No late nights. 
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Wait, so the polls close in Washington at 10AM PST?
And I agree, AZ was pretty shameful.
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Quote:
Originally posted by Temporal
Wait, so the polls close in Washington at 10AM PST?
And I agree, AZ was pretty shameful.
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Yes, it's a caucus. It's early in the morning, but I doubt results will actually come in then because caucuses usually are a long process.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 43,104
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Quote:
Originally posted by King Maxx
Yes, it's a caucus. It's early in the morning, but I doubt results will actually come in then because caucuses usually is a long process.
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That might affect Bernie since college students won't like the 10AM deadline

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Member Since: 1/4/2014
Posts: 3,730
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Google has that number that polls close at 10am but that's a typo, they OPEN at 10am PDT
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Member Since: 4/6/2011
Posts: 31,849
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Quote:
Originally posted by Andres
um she has an overall unfavorable rating since November.
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That's not true. 
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by hooky
I don't know if this has been discussed, but it seems like Bernie does much better on Election Day in each state. Hillary sweeps early votes.
For example, NC was much closer on Election Day, 52-48 Clinton. Arizona was 50.2% to 49.8% Sanders with 17.3% of the vote counted. And don't forget everything that went down there, the result could have been much better for Bernie (or worse, I'm fine with either way as long as people get to vote). And the March 15 primaries were called instantly due to early voting, when the Election Day voting was much closer.
I'm not accusing Hillary or her team of rigging the primaries, but it's still something to look at. Why is Hillary blowing Bernie out in early voting, but Bernie is either close or wins on just Election Day? Is it because people who vote early tend to prefer Hillary? Is it because people like Hillary less or Bernie more by Election Day? Is there possibly some sort of scandal going on? I'm thinking people just like Bernie more as they hear more from him.
Source (which is clearly pro-Bernie but the data is there): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-a...b_9528076.html
The article brings up the time when early vote totals are released. They're released right when the polls close rather than after all the other votes are counted, so Hillary is seen as the immediate winner most of the time. However, if they release them after, then we get to see the Election Day totals first, which would help everyone see how well Bernie is doing right now rather than weeks or months ago. But since the votes are already counted, they should be released ASAP, right?
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I think it's so close on Election Day because many of Clinton's voters have already used early voting. In most states where that was a thing it already counted for over 50% of votes and she usually has a huge lead in them, suggesting that a lot of her supporters don't need to show up to the polls if they have already voted early.
It would be interesting to see the totals released later for early voting and count the election day votes first though
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 27,856
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Quote:
Originally posted by letscauseascene1
I live in Arizona, and experienced the mess that was our Primary. People who don't live in understand, wouldn't get how our state has a reputation of 'election fraud'. We have the lowest local election turnout rates.
I waited 2 hours to spend not even 3 seconds crossing a line on the arrow for my designated candidate of choice. Two.... Hours.... In the Heat because there was no shade, and it was hooooot outside on Tuesday.
What they did was take 200 polling spots in Maricopa County (which we pretty much make up 80% of Arizona) to 60. Population breakdown, that's 108,000 voters at one precinct. I would love for ANYONE to try and tell me otherwise, but that alone was voter suppression. They somehow didn't put any polling stations near low income areas, and Latino neighborhoods, which I find disgusting and outrageous they would not put more polling places in areas ALL over, not just major "hot spots".
Oh, and our Democratic Party didn't UPDATE their voters list. So many people who changed parties, were declined to vote, because the system either never "changed" their party, or they were inputted into the incorrect party, and I believe one voter brought receipts and all for proof she did, indeed change her party way before the deadline. They got to vote via a provisional ballot, which, I don't even know if they COUNTED those yet.
CNN projected Hillary with only 1% in..... And we had thousands still in line waiting to vote. People were in line until 11:30- midnight. Like, absolute insanity.
Oh and the woman in charge of our state primary, an elected official, mind you, blamed the VOTERS for turning out. She said basically after that, "well, we have early voting for a reason"... Like, excuse me!?!? Unreal.
So, please, enlighten me HOW they can say we don't have rigged elections. Give me a ****ing break, anyone to try and say otherwise needs to seriously do some major history research. Shoot, has anyone even WATCHED CNN's "Race For The White House"?! Elections have been rigged for years. That's why we need to get away from third party electronic machines, how that is even allowed to be the counter of our votes is beyond me.
Just a mess. Severely disappointed with my states Election elected officials.
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That doesn't sound ideal at all.
It makes no sense why they'd cut the polling spots by so much.. What reasoning could they have had for that? 
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