Well, I think Gaga has more chances to win this than "Song of the Year". I just checked Wiki and it says:
"Record of the Year is awarded for a single or for one track from an album. This award goes to the performing artist, the producer, recording engineer, and/or mixer for that song. In this sense, "record" means a recording of one song, not the composition or an album of songs. Often, the nominees and winners of this song represent the most successful songs of the year."
Wasn't "Poker Face" the most successful song of the year?
I don't know anything about the Grammys, so I'm not going to argue with anyone, but based on my understanding of what "Record Of The Year" is, "Poker Face" has a huge chance.
