The next 8 out of 9 states favor are all favorable to him. He could have landslides in those states.

But Hillary's lead won't increase tomorrow.

Bookmarked.

Going off of the polls, Hillary would get 100 more delegates than Bernie tomorrow.

This sounds almost like an oxymoron?

Polls don't matter to me

After tomorrow there will be 8 states before NY, and considering what has happened I doubt Arizona is favorable to Bernie, less than 370 delegates up for grabs during that period, and considering Hillary will at least get 35-43% of the vote within that period, all bernie could do is maybe get a 100 delegate lead of that period, after that comes NY which could obliterate that, or make it rather irrelevant.

Let's see what happens tomorrow, but Hillary winning FL, NC & OH will be enough to protect her from any potential "landslide" during that 8 state period,

I doubt she will win Ohio, but we'll see. I think (realistically) that Hillary will ultimately lose Illinois, Missouri and Ohio... But with sizable wins in Florida and North Carolina, she'll be safe (: Unless the super delegates from those states feel uncomfortable with her and decide to move over to Bernie.

Most super delegates will stay with Hillary, since Bernie doesn't really like the democrat party and the democrat party doesn't really like Bernie.

The only poll that is unreliable at this point is Missouri, and it's latest poll has Bernie up 1% against Hillary so I think that's safely his atm. They don't have early voting so it's all about who shows up tomorrow.

That's not going to happen.

Ohio is going to be weird... She won it last time, we'll see what happens this time around.

I don't trust the polls after Michigan lol. It mostly depends on the turnout and if it's an open or closed Primary.

Hillary will expand her lead tomorrow. That is inevitable. What isnt inevitable is how much it will be by. There has been enough early voting/early voter trends in North Carolina and Florida that are too significant for Bernie to catch up to even if he wins Illinois/Ohio/Missouri.

2 Days Later

Florida - Greater than 99% chance Hillary wins. 57% Hillary, 32% Bernie
Ohio - 95% chance Hillary wins. 46% Hillary, 41% Bernie
Missouri - 55% chance Hillary wins. 47% Bernie, 46% Hillary
Illinois - 90% chance Hillary wins. 48% Hillary, 45% Bernie
North Carolina - Greater than 99% chance Hillary wins. 56% Hillary, 37% Bernie

My predictions as of now. Bernie takes Missouri by 10%. Bernie takes Illinois by a near tie. Hillary takes Ohio by a near tie. Hillary takes Florida & North Carolina by over 10%

If he wins those 8 states all 60-40 he will only dent her delegate margin by about 60 delegates. Not counting tomorrow, that would mean she would still be 140 delegates ahead.

Can you agree with me though that it looks strange/bad on Hillary's part if she can't even scrape off a win in one of the midwestern states? Like Bernie can have Illinois and Missouri, but she has to grab Ohio... Otherwise I totally see an argument that could be made against her being unelectable :/

I want this to happen so much.... But I feel like Bernie usually does much better than the polls show.. If you follow the trend shown in your analysis, Bernie likely bridges the gap in all 3 states and overtakes Hillary. I think the independent voters will ultimately push him over the edge.

These are the rest of the states that 538 have a prediction for currently.

Utah - 50% Hillary, 43% Bernie
Wisconsin - 44% Bernie, 43% Hillary
Maryland - 61% Hillary, 28% Bernie
Pennsylvania - 52% Hillary, 29% Bernie
California - 45% Hillary, 32% Bernie
New Jersey - 55% Hillary, 31% Bernie

I agree it isn't good for momentum purposes if she doesn't get 3 states. This isn't cause she is unelectable though, but cause she is getting outspent almost 5:1 or 3:1 in some of these states. She is being too conservative with her money because the delegate math works so much in her favour.

Bernie spent over a million on TV in Missouri while Hillary has only spent 300k.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...issouri-220637

I tend to believe you on most of it.

Missouri has no early voting and is an open primary, that means everyone has to vote tomorrow. Without early voting and with independents and converted republicans, that means Bernie will take it with his biggest percentage.

Illinois has early voting which helps Hillary but is an open primary which helps Bernie. Hillary will most likely win a large portion of her votes from Chicago, since she always does well in large cities with a predominant African American community. Bernie will catch up with her everywhere else in the state though, which is why I think he'll get it in a near tie like Michigan.

Ohio has early voting and has a semi-open primary. But as others said, a lot of independents will be voting republican tomorrow to help John Kasich out. I think with those votes missing, Hillary will get a win in that state similar to Mass. or Iowa.

And North Carolina & Florida both show Hillary with over a 99% chance of winning, so they are pretty safe with around 10 point advantages in each at least.

She's up by 221 pledged delegates I think. There are 691 delegates up for grabs. She needs only a small fraction more than Bernie to go up by 300. She'd need to win 385/691 tomorrow which is 55% of the delegates

Considering she will slaughter in Florida (capturing at least 150 out of the 221) and how big the other states are, she will easily cross the 300 threshold. If she doesn't then something so bad must've happened between now and voting that it will sink her campaign

Now if she's up by 350-400 (difficult to do but not totally out of the realm of possibility) he's over

60-40 isn't a landslide, at least not what I was referring to as one.