Record of the Year is awarded for a single or for one track from an album. This award goes to the performing artist, the producer, recording engineer, and/or mixer for that song. In this sense, "record" means a recording of one song, not the composition or an album of songs. Often, the nominees and winners of this song represent the most successful songs of the year.
Front Runner: Kings Of Leon
They have an edge here. Out of the past winners this decade four of the winning songs were of the rock genre. Even though they aren't Grammy favorites this might be their big year. Also 24 of the past winners of Record Of The Year have been nominated and won in the category of Song Of The Year where they also have a nomination, this could be another plus for them.
Runner Up: Beyonce
Now everyone knows Beyonce is a Grammy Favorite. This could be her year to win Record Of The Year after 3 nominations in the category before. The Grammy committee might feel like its time to reward her the prestigious award since she is superiority established over the other nominees. Not to mention the nominated song "Halo" would fit perfectly into the past winning songs catalog. Now that said the last African American pop artist to win this award was Whitney Houston in 1994. Beyonce could be the rain on this "ROTY Grammy Drought".
A Miracle: Black Eyed Peas
They are not usually the type to win this type of award so I wouldn't get my hopes up. Hip Hop and Mainstream Pop artists don't win this award too much. But they could pull some type of major upset, the lyrics to the song and the production aren't the usual Grammy type for Record Of The Year and fast songs never win but you never know.
Jesus Take The Wheel: Taylor Swift
The last time a country artist won Record Of The Year was back in 2007 when The Dixie Chicks won for their song "Not Ready To Make Nice" but they are Grammy favorites so it was to be expected. Taylor on the other hand isn't. She is also to young win such a prestigious award that usually goes to respected veterans or a Best New Artist winner who has swept the night anyway.
No Chance In Hell: Lady Gaga
I love her and this song but she has like a 0% chance to win. Not only is this an electro pop song but the lyrics are sexual. The Grammy Committee tend to have on tight panties and not allow these type of songs to win awards like this a la "Crazy In Love" "Yeah" "We Belong Together" and many more songs that defined their respected years on charts worldwide.
Sidenote: This is not the Video Music Awards, this is a prestigous Grammy Ceremony, vote accordingly.
Hopefully you'r right abt PF