That's usually what supporters do

Last night was the first time they were really off. Every other race on the Dem side was projected correctly. Even her slim win in MA was correctly projected.

The polls were bad on the Dem side last night, full stop. They were accurate for the Republicans though.

No it's not.

Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming are all likely Bernie's territory.

Uhh Nate Silver is a God.

Unfortunately for some reason pollsters ****ed up which means 538's model became useless.

A lot can change between now and then.

I get into fights with Berniebots daily. How is it possible for a group to be so collectively uninformed. You wouldn't believe the amount of people telling me Obama was losing at this time in 2008 by the same margin, or that Hillary is only winning because of super delegates.

Yeah, after next Tuesday it's fertile Bernie ground (except maybe Arizona) until New York

It's disgusting. Bernie was right when he said he was attracting people not involved in the political process. They're dumb as rocks.

Because MI poll's sucked, we now assume all polls suck?

MI polls didn't properly adjust for demos, likely because they didn't have real data from 2008 to reference. Other states don't have this issue.

This is such a good point. Political science relies so heavily on past election cycles. They literally had nothing to go on A big mess.

Doesn't change the fact that it was the one of the biggest polling errors of all time. Anything can happen.

Polls have actually been fairly accurate at predicting winners this cycle, they've just been horrible at predicting margins.

I was referring solely to Michigan. They didn't have a real primary in 2008 and had a caucus in 2004.

And unfortunately he will either win by a small amount or lose by a small amount. Either scenario still means that they will split the delegates evenly. This Tuesday will let us know the outcome of the primaries. If Hillary Dominates in Florida and North Carolina and Bernie DOES win Ohio and Illinois, it will only be by a small percentage gap which won't change things mathematically. Hillary will win Maryland, Arizona, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, likely California and the delegate count will grow for both of them... But the problem for Bernie is that the gap will only widen. I doubt the democrats will elect a socialist as their candidate. Polls have shown that by November, Bernie will likely be shown to lose to the Rep. candidate, while Hillary will only grow her likelihood of winning. All of this is true and I know you are a Bernie supporter, but I want you to consider the possibility of supporting Hillary--as Bernie will when he drops out of the race.

Historical outliers are historically outlying. If Bernie is banking on a consecutive series of historically extraordinary errors then he has even less of a shot at the nomination than the 0.1% that I gave him.

Stranger things have happened.

Oh I know, just pointing it out for those who dismiss all polls because of MI sucking.

But the states are SO low in delegates and they will likely split them either way... It's really really unlikely that these states will make a major difference (even if Bernie were to win them by 5-10 percentage points).

Like what? RFK getting assassinated? Are you expecting a repeat?