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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Banned
Member Since: 4/27/2012
Posts: 33,811
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https://twitter.com/berniesanders/st...50381481332736
This is a problem I have with his campaign. It's all about rhetoric. Young people have a problem understanding what levels of government are responsible for what and he plays into that. Which is why we say his campaign is all about dreams.
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Member Since: 8/29/2011
Posts: 18,282
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
Kasich and Rubio dropping out after their state's primary will be too little too late. Kasich is trailing trump by a small margin in the latest OHIO poll and the same for Rubio in Florida. Most states from here on out favor Trump and those states are winner-takes-all. Cruz isn't gonna carry New York, California, Maryland, and such. They needed people to drop during Super Tuesday, to make Cruz competitive in the southern conservative states.Instead, Trump won them and got majority of the proportional delegate counts. They needed Rubio to be the IT guy and this crowded pool has hampered that rally around the main establishment guy. I feel bad for him. If he loses his state and by a big margin, it'll be so embarrassing for him.
At this point, they are hoping for a brokered convention and by not picking Trump, the leading delegate holder, they're setting themselves up for a Trump supporters rebellion. The Democratic Party parallel to that is Bernie winning more states, popular vote, and pledged delegates, but denied the nomination by super delegates. Luckily, I don't think that is happening on the Dem side, but Republicans, it's a hot mess right now of epic proportions.
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If it comes down to a brokered convention and Trump isn't the nominee despite having the popular vote, then I could see that pushing him to go third party.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
I think it is funny how you all want to write Bernie off as lost, but still think Rubio or Cruz will win.  Bernie's chances may be very low (*waits for Michigan results*), but Rubio and Cruz's are objectively lower.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...egate-targets/
Cruz is 65% on target, Rubio is 45% on target, and Kasich isn't even on the list.  Yet Bernie is 86% on target. That's still a big gap, but not as big as Cruz/Rubio/Kasich. Honestly, if the GOP really don't want Trump, then their best bet is a brokered convention imo. |
Its different. GOP primary rules are different.
What I'm saying is that a Trump win in Florida, Michigan, Ohio does not ensure he will win because there is still the chance of a brokered convention, especially since his national numbers are starting to fall and Cruz is outperforming expectations.
The Dem side is very different. 200 points is near insurmountable, especially since Bernie will never get as favourable a weekend as he just had. Most caucus states have low delegate totals. Most low AA population states have low delegate totals. And most of those states are done.
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Member Since: 4/4/2014
Posts: 10,514
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
I think it is funny how you all want to write Bernie off as lost, but still think Rubio or Cruz will win. Bernie's chances may be very low (*waits for Michigan results*), but Rubio and Cruz's are objectively lower.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...egate-targets/
Cruz is 65% on target, Rubio is 45% on target, and Kasich isn't even on the list. Yet Bernie is 86% on target. That's still a big gap, but not as big as Cruz/Rubio/Kasich. Honestly, if the GOP really don't want Trump, then their best bet is a brokered convention imo. |
That's true, but winner-take-all states and the multiple-candidate field make it easier for Cruz to catch up. Bernie is facing Hillary one-on-one, and she's already amassed a nearly insurmountable delegate lead. The Democrats' proportional allocation doesn't help Bernie's chances.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ramcoro
2012 Polls The Receipts
2008 Polls The Receipts
For 2012 polls this early were actually more accurate than polls in October or November. I'm not saying polls are set in stone or a prophecy handed down by god, but scientific polls > random people's opinions on Facebook. 
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In February/March 2012, polls showed Obama +5-6. Hypothetical polling is unreliable because we never know what will happen in the GE. The 49% comment killed Romney, as seen by polls during that time period.
There's no point looking at polls on hypothetical match-ups because you cannot account for debate performance, scandals, VP selections, actual ad campaigns between the Dem and GOP party. The GOP hasn't even begun their attacks on Bernie.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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Quote:
Originally posted by Marvin
Not when she's against free tuition because rich kids would go to college for free.
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She said she wants community college to be free which effectively cuts the cost of going to university in half.
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 26,488
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
Is there another dem-debate tomorrow?!?!? That's what they said on MSNBC a few mins ago!!??
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Yeah, I believe it's the Univision debate in Miami. Will most likely focus more on immigration and foreign policy versus the racial issues and domestic policy of the Flint debate.
The Republicans have one on Thursday too I believe.
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Member Since: 6/5/2011
Posts: 3,159
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Rooting for Hillary to take Michigan! Com'on Hills! 
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Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 3,624
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Quote:
Originally posted by mermaid_ariel
Rooting for Hillary to take Michigan! Com'on Hills! |
She will!!! (: have faith!
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Member Since: 6/20/2012
Posts: 8,593
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Quote:
Originally posted by Giselle
Why these people? And Kirsten is Hillary's protege LOL, I doubt she'd be Bernie's VP. |
Who NOT these people? And I don't think that matters much; even Clinton would endorse Sanders if he went on to be the Democratic nominee (which is highly unlikely atp), like, I don't really see that as a viable reason for Kirsten not wanting to be the Democratic Party's VP nominee, and I think she would be a great POTUS if, god forbid, anything happens to Bernie (who would be the oldest person to become POTUS if elected).
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Member Since: 7/13/2010
Posts: 11,566
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Latest polls have Hillary up 40 in Illinois and up 30 in Florida  Hope her and her team pull through tonight
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Hillary's most notable surrogates. Imagine all will be part of her perspective cabinet.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 7,793
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Quote:
Originally posted by jpow
Yeah, I believe it's the Univision debate in Miami. Will most likely focus more on immigration and foreign policy versus the racial issues and domestic policy of the Flint debate.
The Republicans have one on Thursday too I believe.
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I hope they address the topic of climate change. Apart from New Orleans, Miami is the US city that is most at risk from rising sea-levels caused by melting ice-caps. It amazes me, that a politician from Miami like Rubio ignores this issue.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.climatet...ator_Rubio.pdf
http://europe.newsweek.com/marco-rub...s-420326?rm=eu
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
Hillary's most notable surrogates. Imagine all will be part of her perspective cabinet.
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That Kennedy game still strong.
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Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 611
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
Is there another dem-debate tomorrow?!?!? That's what they said on MSNBC a few mins ago!!??
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Univision is hosting one
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by The Countess
That Kennedy game still strong.
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The Kennedy's are the closest thing we've had and probably will ever have to an "American Royal Family." Obviously we don't and will never have a ruling monarchy. We've had dynasties come like the Bushes and Clintons, but there is just a mystique about The Kennedy's. Though I'm sure there are plenty that will disagree though.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 59,596
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Quote:
Originally posted by foxaylove
The Kennedy's are the closest thing we've had and probably will ever have to an "American Royal Family." Obviously we don't and will never have a ruling monarchy. We've had dynasties come like the Bushes and Clintons, but there is just a mystique about The Kennedy's. Though I'm sure there are plenty that will disagree though.
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The JFK assassination was very traumatic and sad but I feel like the RFK assassination was even worse because so many had high hopes for him as he seemed like the natural next leader for the Democratic Party. I wonder where the party would be right now if he hadn't been killed.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by MAKSIM
Latest polls have Hillary up 40 in Illinois and up 30 in Florida Hope her and her team pull through tonight |
Keep a firm eye on early voting numbers in these states, especially in a place like Florida. Absentee Ballots will play a big role in voting for Florida's primary.
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Member Since: 5/8/2012
Posts: 6,632
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How secure is Trumps delegate majority? I'm really hoping for a brokered convention, imagine the fumes/meltdowns. The party would literally splinter in half
And how on Earth is Trump leading in Florida??
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Member Since: 11/15/2009
Posts: 16,903
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
Hillary's most notable surrogates. Imagine all will be part of her perspective cabinet.
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You think Chelsea will be in the Cabinet? And I don't see the Kennedy giving up his career in Congress. He'll want to be President one day.
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