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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by Eros
In before someone says the Clintons did it as some form of voter suppression!!
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You already know conspiracy theorists will say this, never mind that these times and dates from both sides were determined during the summer of 2015. The only common thing that changes most predetermined sporting events is television broadcasts. If ESPN wants the game at 3pm instead of 6pm because of their schedule, the university will accommodate that change a lot of times. KU basketball is a big tv drawl so I know they'll be on one of the major networks. Especially if it's their last home game of the season (senior day).
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Has anyone ever lost the nomination after being 200 delegates ahead?
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 2,514
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Quote:
Originally posted by Adonis
it forces people to cater to a wider array of voters rather than just the fringe elements within their respective primaries. Politicians are forced to craft a message that works for New York and Alabama at the same time. It forces people to cater to minorities who typically dont get much of a say in the first few caucuses Iowa and New Hampshire. Rather than waiting until South Carolina to pretend to care about minority voters and their concerns.
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Like I said initially, I understand the sentiment, and can sort of understand your logic now that you've divulged into it a bit more. But I still stand that by doing so it would in fact derail everything (in an increasingly negative way) and make the presidential candidate platform more polluted with trash than it currently is.
Also, you don't gain the minority support by waiting all the way until SC to pretend to care about their issues and concerns. I would assume that in this new system you're envisioning there would still need to be candidates that have actually put forward an effort to make in roads within those communities. by demonstrating their standing support. They would still need to work to earn it! What you're saying is kind of like doubling down on the fact that Bernie supporters are going around condescendingly preaching to minorities that they aren't making the right decisions for themselves by voting for Clinton. As if the Clintons haven't had a long standing relationship with those voters.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Has anyone ever lost the nomination after being 200 delegates ahead?
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Ummmmmmm let me research ones in recent history
What I can tell you is that it's virtually impossible to come back from that deficit. Not impossible (you'd have to run up margins so big that the opponents become non-viable in delegate rich primaries/caucuses) but let me see if I can find anything
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by jpow
It lowkey cracks me up that issues like this really affect Bernie's campaign 
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TBQH, that may impact some of the Hillary voters as well. If their alumni of the university and are season ticket holders, they may not be missing it as well. It's the last home game and regular season game of the season for them. Also, it's against a national ranked opponent.
Who knows, maybe this won't have that big of an impact, but it does take away from supporters in that college town for sure. Lots of people will be at that game or watching it from their home...or even at the caucus sites. 
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Member Since: 5/8/2012
Posts: 6,632
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Quote:
Originally posted by HeyMr.DJ
How ANYONE can sit here and say that Bernie has a chance baffles me. He won 4 states last night... 4 states that basically play a tiny role in the grand scheme of things. He REALLY and I mean REALLYYY needed to win Massachusetts and Clinton snatched it from him. She's up by more than half of his amount of delegates and will continue her sweep nationwide. She has the black vote (thanks to the amazing relationship between the black community and her and Bill), she has the Latino vote and every other minority. Bernie's support is the UNEDUCATED and overly left college students whom call themselves "democrats". Bernie is a socialist who will not make it to the white house. Its sad that ALL 65 Million dollars donated to him will go to a COMPLETE waste. He needs to stop asking for donations.
Receipts for those saying Bernie still has a chance: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/democrat
she is LITERALLY sweeping him in every state that actually MATTERS.
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His support is in the young. Stop trying to make it seem like people only support Bernie because they're "UNEDUCATED".
People with college degrees, (aka wealthier, older folk) aren't voting for Hillary because they're more "EDUCATED", it's because they know that Bernie is going to raise their taxes to go to the ""UNEDUCATED", poor, lazy, food stamp collecting burdens on society" and they aren't here for that.
I don't think anyone here disagrees that Hillary trounced him last night.
Are you only supposed to donate to a campaign you know is a winner? What a sad mindset. I won't ever regret donating my $5 every week; I know my money was used for good and went to a campaign with values that I avidly support, even if he doesn't win.
This whole "those poor dumb supporters, they rlly don't know any better" rhetoric sounds familiar btw
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
Has anyone ever lost the nomination after being 200 delegates ahead?
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Well what I can tell you is that the closest primary I can remember (researching, wasn't alive back then lol) was the 1992 Democratic Primary where Bill Clinton won after losing 11 of the first 12 contests or something like that.
Now every state back then was winner take all and not proportional so keep that in mind. So...
From Iowa to about South Carolina (about 12 contests including those two) Bill was about 135 pledged delegates behind Paul Tsongas. And as we know he went on to win the primary and election. From thereon out he won 34 of the next 40 contests. However it was winner take all back then so being behind that far wasn't as detrimental.
So considering Sanders is much farther behind and it's not winner take all for him, his climb to the nomination is much steeper than Clinton's climb, which was most likely the most unpredictable turnaround in recent political history since the people started choosing the presidential nominees
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Member Since: 7/13/2010
Posts: 11,566
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You can come back from 200 delegates behind on the republican side since there are winner take all states, but since the democratic race is proportional it is impossible for Bernie to catch up unless Hillary is literally jailed.
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Member Since: 3/5/2011
Posts: 15,589
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Rubio was THE biggest loser of the night. Marcomentum is a myth lol.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 7,793
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Hillary is the next US President. Congrats to her. There will be a lot of shouting and finger-pointing left to do, but the race is over as far as I am concerned.
Trump winning the GOP nomination will send the GOP into meltdown for the remainder of the decade. They needed a wake-up call anyway. The GOP face an existential threat from the changing demographics where black and hispanic voters will increase in significance as their % of the voting populace increases over the next couple of decades. The GOP will cease to be competitive in the Presidential Elections and this will remain the case until they undergo a fundamental shift in their coalition of ideologies.
Specifically, they need to make themselves more attractive to hispanic voters. Trump demonising Mexicans is the opposite of what the GOP requires in the long-term. I can see Rubio being President, but maybe in a decade or so, when the GOP realise that Roe VS Wade has been settled for decades, the gays have a right to marriage and that Latin votes matter to the Republicans.
It is no surprise that the Republican Presidential nominees (bar Rubio) are all very much anti-amnesty for illegal immigrants. Hispanics tend to vote Democrat, so the GOP fears another 11 million illegals (many of them hispanic) suddently becoming citizens with voting rights, as this will effectively help the Democrats gain more votes. Instead of using rhetoric condemning Mexicans, the GOP should realise that there is no fighting demographics, and they would be better suited to change their ideological stances to make themselves more appealing to the black and hispanic demographics. The GOP has undergone fundamental ideological chances before, don't forget that they were the anti-Slavery party and had the Black vote until the 1930s. The South were not Red states until 1970s. Things can change and they do over time.
The GOP also needs to stop allowing clowns to gain influential positions over their voting base. George W Bush, Sarah Palin and now Trump and Carson? Seriously? Really?
With their policies of encouraging Christianity in politics, anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-gay marriage, anti-universal healthcare, the GOP would be unelectable in my country, the UK. Currently they are also looking to be unelectable in their own country, at least in Presidential elections. If they don't reform the GOP will fracture as the current coalition of ideologies they represent will have no reason to stay aligned.
Bernie Sanders is an interesting figure. He could actually be more of a successful politician in the UK than the US as socialism is not a dirty word here. He certainly would be a better Labour Party Leader than Jeremy Corbyn, who is un-electable. The fact that Bernie has a lot of young voters would normally be very encouraging for a candidate in future elections, but aged 74, Sanders cannot really make plans to win in a decade from now, once his youthful support has grown in size and influence. The oldest US President was Reagan, aged 69. Sanders' age puts his health into question as an increasing concern for future elections. It was an issue for McCain and the same applies to Sanders.
I hope Sanders will accept an influential post in Clinton's new administration. Then he can help change the system from within and perhaps mentor some younger candidates to further his policies over the next few decades.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Damien M
Rubio was THE biggest loser of the night. Marcomentum is a myth lol.
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Yep. He spent and blew so much money for so little votes 
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Member Since: 9/13/2012
Posts: 7,285
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Don't be so sure about the election being over. It's going to get ugly in the fall.
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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Quote:
Originally posted by hellocory
Don't be so sure about the eating contest being over. It's going to get ugly in the fall.
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I think there might be enough attacks from the sidelines that the Trump and Clinton will be able to avoid going negative and let everyone else do the dirty work
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 28,137
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I don't understand the Kasich game plan. Poor the GOP.
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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Regardless, Bernie Sanders has paved the way for a truly liberal progressive candidate in the near future. Now is not the time, but maybe in 8 years.
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Member Since: 8/31/2012
Posts: 13,110
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
Regardless, Bernie Sanders has paved the way for a truly liberal progressive candidate in the near future. Now is not the time, but maybe in 8 years.
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i don't think so. A very very big chunk of his support is the anti-Clinton anti-Dynasty vote, mixed in a with small amounts of misogyny.
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 11/14/2008
Posts: 24,988
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Quote:
Originally posted by revel8
Hillary is the next US President. Congrats to her. There will be a lot of shouting and finger-pointing left to do, but the race is over as far as I am concerned.
Trump winning the GOP nomination will send the GOP into meltdown for the remainder of the decade. They needed a wake-up call anyway. The GOP face an existential threat from the changing demographics where black and hispanic voters will increase in significance as their % of the voting populace increases over the next couple of decades. The GOP will cease to be competitive in the Presidential Elections and this will remain the case until they undergo a fundamental shift in their coalition of ideologies.
Specifically, they need to make themselves more attractive to hispanic voters. Trump demonising Mexicans is the opposite of what the GOP requires in the long-term. I can see Rubio being President, but maybe in a decade or so, when the GOP realise that Roe VS Wade has been settled for decades, the gays have a right to marriage and that Latin votes matter to the Republicans.
It is no surprise that the Republican Presidential nominees (bar Rubio) are all very much anti-amnesty for illegal immigrants. Hispanics tend to vote Democrat, so the GOP fears another 11 million illegals (many of them hispanic) suddently becoming citizens with voting rights, as this will effectively help the Democrats gain more votes. Instead of using rhetoric condemning Mexicans, the GOP should realise that there is no fighting demographics, and they would be better suited to change their ideological stances to make themselves more appealing to the black and hispanic demographics. The GOP has undergone fundamental ideological chances before, don't forget that they were the anti-Slavery party and had the Black vote until the 1930s. The South were not Red states until 1970s. Things can change and they do over time.
The GOP also needs to stop allowing clowns to gain influential positions over their voting base. George W Bush, Sarah Palin and now Trump and Carson? Seriously? Really?
With their policies of encouraging Christianity in politics, anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-gay marriage, anti-universal healthcare, the GOP would be unelectable in my country, the UK. Currently they are also looking to be unelectable in their own country, at least in Presidential elections. If they don't reform the GOP will fracture as the current coalition of ideologies they represent will have no reason to stay aligned.
Bernie Sanders is an interesting figure. He could actually be more of a successful politician in the UK than the US as socialism is not a dirty word here. He certainly would be a better Labour Party Leader than Jeremy Corbyn, who is un-electable. The fact that Bernie has a lot of young voters would normally be very encouraging for a candidate in future elections, but aged 74, Sanders cannot really make plans to win in a decade from now, once his youthful support has grown in size and influence. The oldest US President was Reagan, aged 69. Sanders' age puts his health into question as an increasing concern for future elections. It was an issue for McCain and the same applies to Sanders.
I hope Sanders will accept an influential post in Clinton's new administration. Then he can help change the system from within and perhaps mentor some younger candidates to further his policies over the next few decades.
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Solid post from an observe on the outside.
1) While I'm feeling good about her chances, I'm not 100% confident at this moment.
2) You hit the nail on the head about the GOP and their stances with the Latino community. I would've thought that they learned their lesson after the 2008 Presidential Election when they got completely embarrassed across the board. They were suppose to do an autopsy of their political party to diversify their party. And to their credit some within the establishment of the GOP have done so, I mean, they do have two Cuban-Americans as leading candidates and at one point, a black candidate, though he has fallen to the back of the pack. Their biggest problems lie in their stances and dismissal of issues that effect people of color. This country is getting browner, rather they like it or not. Immigration, criminal justice reform, income inequality, and so on are key issues that lots of Latinos and Blacks care about. Instead of bridging the gap and adapting or expanding their views, they condemn or dismiss those issues. That doesn't help or bold well for the future of their party.
3) Bernie is a great guy. I won't pretend to know where he would better fall in line with in the British political system. Though, I probably should take more interest in the political practices of the prominent EU countries since most are some of our key allies.
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Member Since: 8/30/2011
Posts: 22,432
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Why are there so many anti-Hillary conspiracy theories from fellow Democrats?
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Member Since: 8/18/2013
Posts: 20,070
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Quote:
Originally posted by Clump
Why are there so many anti-Hillary conspiracy theories from fellow Democrats?
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Because she's evil
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Member Since: 8/28/2009
Posts: 7,345
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sasha.
Because she's evil
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You really need to stop trolling. This isn't syg. You can't "drag" people you don't know here.
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