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Discussion: U.S. Election 2016: Primary Season
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by ABEL-o-matic
King  |
Your avy and sig. 
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alejandrawrrr
What the GOP really needs to do is bribe their establishment candidates to drop out to try and unify their support under one candidate... Or else Trump is just going to sail to the general. Do we have data on which candidate's support would go where (ie: second choices) in any primaries, or nationally? I feel like a lot of Jeb's support would go to Rubio, Carson's might go to Cruz, Kasich's??? Even tho he'd be my top choice as GOP candidates are concerned (  ) watching Trump cakewalk to the nomination is no fun, while a three-man race certainly would be. |
After that whole thing with Cruz lying about Carson dropping out in Iowa, I'm not sure they'd go to him. I honestly think they might go to Trump too. 
I think you're right about Bush to Rubio. Kasich probably goes Rubio too.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alejandrawrrr
What the GOP really needs to do is bribe their establishment candidates to drop out to try and unify their support under one candidate... Or else Trump is just going to sail to the general. Do we have data on which candidate's support would go where (ie: second choices) in any primaries, or nationally? I feel like a lot of Jeb's support would go to Rubio, Carson's might go to Cruz, Kasich's??? Even tho he'd be my top choice as GOP candidates are concerned ( ) watching Trump cakewalk to the nomination is no fun, while a three-man race certainly would be. |
Exactly! The thing is Trump has about a 30% base support in literally every state polled when there's at least 3 people in the race. That's a HUGE slice to start at. If the winner take all states come and he's still getting that base, no way he will lose.
Now if the thing turns into 1v1 that's the only way Trump loses but it has to be quick for two reasons. One is because if he wins so many states he will have too many delegates to be caught up to. So after a certain point it won't even matter. But also the more he wins, the more momentum he has, and the more people will be attracted to him. People love to be on a winning bandwagon.
If this isn't 1v1 by March 8th Trump waltzes to the nomination
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Member Since: 1/20/2012
Posts: 27,830
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Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
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Maybe the black students didn't show up?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mike91
FiveThirtyEight site has Sanders ahead of Clinton. I know you said it was their podcast but the site itself has him ahead in Nevada now. It was tied the other day.
A win in Nevada would be a massive blow to Hillary because that's basically three losses in a row. She won Iowa but Bernie came out the winner in the bigger picture.
And he if closes in on her in SC, that again will look like another victory for him. Bernie continues to gain everywhere and Clinton continues to fall everywhere.
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a) No. That's polls-plus after a push-poll.
b) No. He did not "win in the bigger picture," he lost. And will lose Nevada.
c) No. The most recent SC polls are exactly in line with the rest and there are states where she's gaining.
Therefore, no.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 5,905
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I hate that I sprinted to switch affiliations in time to vote in my first primary, only to find out New York's is SO LATE in the election cycle (late April, compared to Super Tuesday in 08). Not that it matters much, since I've been looking over past results & Clinton scalped Obama here in 08
Quote:
Originally posted by Benzene
After that whole thing with Cruz lying about Carson dropping out in Iowa, I'm not sure they'd go to him. I honestly think they might go to Trump too.
I think you're right about Bush to Rubio. Kasich probably goes Rubio too. |
OMG, I forgot about the Carson-Cruz thing I was just thinking in terms of the token theocratic republican nominee thing, but yeah, you're right that the Carsonators would probably flock to Trump given their sorta-alliance, and them clearly not having a problem supporting a candidate with 0 governing/legislating credentials.
Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Exactly! The thing is Trump has about a 30% base support in literally every state polled when there's at least 3 people in the race. That's a HUGE slice to start at. If the winner take all states come and he's still getting that base, no way he will lose.
Now if the thing turns into 1v1 that's the only way Trump loses but it has to be quick for two reasons. One is because if he wins so many states he will have too many delegates to be caught up to. So after a certain point it won't even matter. But also the more he wins, the more momentum he has, and the more people will be attracted to him. People love to be on a winning bandwagon.
If this isn't 1v1 by March 8th Trump waltzes to the nomination
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Exactly. I've been saying for a long time that Trump isn't really THAT strong of a candidate, he's just running in a zoo, and in an awkward time for the republican party to boot. With all of his exposure (probably the most out of any candidate this election cycle, perhaps all of them put together), only consistently pulling in mid-high 30s at best in most polls, his consistently "tremendous" unfavorable ratings, etc... In a 1-v-1 I can actually see him getting dragged, but you're absolutely right about subsequent wins creating momentum. If his opposition slowly peters out one by one following SC, Super Tuesday, etc, his path to victory may be irreversible. But again, I don't even necessarily fear him like most democrats do, it's the prospect of someone like Cruz winning that disturbs me... And I also feel like Cruz would be one of the last to drop out.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Retro
a) No. That's polls-plus after a push-poll.
b) No. He did not "win in the bigger picture," he lost. And will lose Nevada.
c) No. The most recent SC polls are exactly in line with the rest and there are states where she's gaining.
Therefore, no.
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Polls re-updated
Polls plus has 50% chance for both again. Polls only has Hillary 51%
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alejandrawrrr
I hate that I sprinted to switch affiliations in time to vote in my first primary, only to find out New York's is SO LATE in the election cycle (late April, compared to Super Tuesday in 08). Not that it matters much, since I've been looking over past results & Clinton scalped Obama here in 08
OMG, I forgot about the Carson-Cruz thing I was just thinking in terms of the token theocratic republican nominee thing, but yeah, you're right that the Carsonators would probably flock to Trump given their sorta-alliance, and them clearly not having a problem supporting a candidate with 0 governing/legislating credentials.
Exactly. I've been saying for a long time that Trump isn't really THAT strong of a candidate, he's just running in a zoo, and in an awkward time for the republican party to boot. With all of his exposure (probably the most out of any candidate this election cycle, perhaps all of them put together), only consistently pulling in mid-high 30s at best in most polls, his consistently "tremendous" unfavorable ratings, etc... In a 1-v-1 I can actually see him getting dragged, but you're absolutely right about subsequent wins creating momentum. If his opposition slowly peters out one by one following SC, Super Tuesday, etc, his path to victory may be irreversible. But again, I don't even necessarily fear him like most democrats do, it's the prospect of someone like Cruz winning that disturbs me... And I also feel like Cruz would be one of the last to drop out. |
Switching? Were you independent too or did you switch from democratic to republican?
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ATRL Senior Member
Member Since: 3/22/2012
Posts: 53,769
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Polls re-updated
Polls plus has 50% chance for both again. Polls only has Hillary 51%
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welp
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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All the news outlets said Obama attacking Trump sealed the deal for his win there
This is kinda scary. I mean I'm supporting Trump to win his primary but people really REALLY hate Obama
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Member Since: 6/28/2008
Posts: 4,530
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I think there's a good chance Hillary might lose Nevada. But unless Bernie gets very close in SC, I think the story coming out of will be "Hillary has finally hit her chain of strong states"
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Mickey
I think there's a good chance Hillary might lose Nevada. But unless Bernie gets very close in SC, I think the story coming out of will be "Hillary has finally hit her chain of strong states"
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Oh definitely. We know nothing there's a good chance she loses but there's a good chance she wins too. It truly is a coin flip. People on the ground observing though think Clinton has it but not by much. It all depends on turnout
It's actually imperative both win. This'll be near fatal for Bern if he loses though. Nate is currently writing an article on how Bernie has to do to win the nom. I'll post it when it's up
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Member Since: 8/19/2013
Posts: 21,143
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Member Since: 12/7/2011
Posts: 18,969
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
All the news outlets said Obama attacking Trump sealed the deal for his win there
This is kinda scary. I mean I'm supporting Trump to win his primary but people really REALLY hate Obama |
 I despise Obama's administration, but he did some great things for the economy.
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 5,905
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Quote:
Originally posted by RatedG²
Switching? Were you independent too or did you switch from democratic to republican?
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Oh yeah, I was independent, but not of the moderate/centrist variety. New York is a closed primary, so I had to register as a democrat in order to vote here.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alejandrawrrr
Oh yeah, I was independent, but not of the moderate/centrist variety. New York is a closed primary, so I had to register as a democrat in order to vote here.
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Same. I was also independent and because Pennsylvania is closed I had to register. I want to vote in both but I ultimately chose democrat because by the time my state comes Trump would already be the nominee lol. Can't say the same for Hillary with the same level of confidence
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Member Since: 8/31/2013
Posts: 21,462
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A lot of people on Facebook are saying that Hillary's barking is like the Dean Scream and is gonna make her lose 
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Member Since: 7/21/2012
Posts: 28,099
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Dem Town Hall on MSNBC (English) and Telemundo (Spanish) on Thursday in Nevada.
It's going to be on the exact same time Trump, Jeb, and Kasich are on CNN for their town hall.
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Member Since: 8/3/2010
Posts: 71,871
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Quote:
Originally posted by feelslikeadream
A lot of people on Facebook are saying that Hillary's barking is like the Dean Scream and is gonna make her lose |
Facebook?
Her bark thing is a local event. No new station, publication, etc really covered that in depth. No one is gonna care after Nevada lol
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