Just a general note: FiveThirtyEight's mean scores for their forecasts show 49.2% Hillary, 44.1% Bernie, and 5.1% O'Mal for their polls-only forecast. 50.0% Hill, 43.1% Bern, and 5.4% O'Mal polls-plus.

73% chance of Hillary winning polls-only; 79% polls-plus.

Interestingly, Selzer's poll is weighted most out of all of them - they're giving her a lot of credibility, her reputation is stunning!

I live for her answer when her perception as dishonest was brought up during that town hall or whatever that was here on my campus.

I know the younger voters feel that way, but she addressed it so well.

Well yeah of course they'd give her credibility. You cross examined her predictions and results throughout the last 20-25 years no? Almost always spot on

The two biggest front runners on the GOP side (Trump and Cruz) have the same issues of flip flopping, dishonesty, selfishness, pettiness, money, likability, and certainly puts their issues ahead of others. Several of their views are polarizing among Americans.

Bernie is no cake walk either. If he becomes the nominee for the democrats, the GOP will be ruthless with the "Socialist" tag that Bernie proudly wears with honor. They'll certainly make it an issue and several will identify with not wanting a Socialist POTUS. Remember, the GOP have treated Bernie as an afterthought because they believe their biggest and likeliest threat is Hillary. If that changes, they will come for Bernie hardcore, no doubt.

Both candidates have their pros and cons. Frankly, I think regardless of the candidate the Dems will win in November. However, what separates Hillary and Bernie in my mind is the thought philosophy, pragmatist vs idealist.

I just think it's cool to have that much respect in the field.

Did you guys know Elizabeth Warren was a registered Republican until 1995? I had no idea!

Even better option, your state allows you to do it online as well. https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa...plication.aspx

It's easier and cheaper (no stamps required) lol

Not surprised. Even Hillary was a Republican till she went to college and formulated her own thoughts and beliefs outside of the ones her family brought her up with. Though that puts her in her 40's when she made the switch.

Crazy when you think about what a symbol she's become for the progressive movement.

Not to play the political opportunist, but it goes to show how peoples' views can change, and at time dramatically.

It's actually remarkable that Trump is winning in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, his net favorability among Republicans is only +4 (meanwhile, candidates like Carson and Rubio have approximately +35) and in New Hampshire it's actually negative. It just goes to show you that even the most polarizing candidates could conceivably have a shot at the presidency. After all, our country is becoming more polarized.

Cruz projects a very wholesome image that evangelicals seem to just eat up. Trump not so much but a lot of GOPers who are "fed up with the system" (however you want to define that) seem to support him.

And yeah, the GOP Twitter account is SUCH a kii because half of what they tweet is "Clinton in trouble!" or "New charges against Clinton!" or "Clinton would ruin America!" and never anything about Bernie.

Maybe it is just me (and maybe it is a tad naive of me) but I think that to see that kind of progression shows someone that can see where things are headed and find the correct path to make for themselves. Hillary has done the same on other things (what some call flip-flopping). That shows a serious sign of being self aware and aware of what is good for the people at the time. It's a sign of good pragmatic leadership for me.

That might just be me blowing smoke though but those are my thoughts.

I like Bernie. I like Hillary. Both have their pluses and minuses. I will be happy with either of them winning, but I must say Hillary will not be hurt if she loses Iowa. Bernie, however, NEEDS Iowa if he expects to gain more traction nationwide. NH and Vermont are not enough to take the nomination. He may as well quit if he doesnt win Iowa tomorrow tbh. From what I hear, he has an excellent ground operation there so there should be no reason for him to lose.

God today though

I just

I've waited so long and Hill's been bae for so long, this is like my religious holiday but less frequent and the one time it's for Hill

I'll pray for a Clinton win. Can't wait until I get off of school. CNN all day

I've got so much ****ing schoolwork today, but caucus coverage will be my break.

Forum came back just in time

Gonna be perched on the news tomorrow.

So excited to caucus tomorrow (well, later today)

Everyone in Iowa City seems to be caucusing for Bernie (all my college friends on FB are talking about him), but I went to an event today to see Bill Clinton speak (it was pretty exciting ) and I was surrounded by old people who are gonna caucus for Hillary and who were on top of it, knowing their caucus location, discussing her policies in detail while we waited in line, etc., so I guess I shouldn't count Hillary out in Iowa City just yet. I live in a neighborhood with a lot of old people/families, so hopefully I won't be alone on Hillary's side

Sgdakldhfkfjakk WAIT I HAVE AN IOWA SISTER HERE

I don't see O'Malley getting anything in Iowa because of how the system works

Hoping for a Bernie win, but it's not over if he loses. He can recover, but it will be extremely hard.

Honestly, Bernie and Hillary would probably have an equally difficult time in the GE. I know a lot of moderates dislike Hillary for various reasons and don't think too highly of socialism. The GOP will remind them of these. Hillary (not just Bernie) will also be called a socialist, just like Obama did. Hopefully the Dem nominee will be able to calm the moderates enough so they can win. I think Bernie will have an easier time with this though since people are just learning about him; he can properly explain what "democratic socialism" means. People have had since 1992 to form opinions on Hillary, opinions that will be hard to change. I feel like anyone who's going to like Hillary either likes her already or is neutral.

Edit: This took 40 minutes to post because of 3 am downtime and the random 5min downtime some time afterward

I really think Republicans should move their caucus from Iowa to another more moderate state to start. The evangelical base there forces the candidates give concessions to the Christian right too early in the process that hurts Republicans in the general.

Cruz always had Iowa sewn up until his disastrous last debate performance and the fake voter violation mailers that have royally pissed off the Iowa Republican Party.