|
Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (December 13-20, 2015)
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 30,642
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
What did I miss?
|
just ppl debating whether or not Sorry will overtake Hello on the hot 100.
what do you think Ger?
|
|
|
Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Sheena
How many weeks left do you think she can hold off?
|
Oh God, this is such a hard question, I just can't answer Really unknown, Streaming is way unpreditable, I was sure 10 weeks+ at least for "Hello" but did not see YouTube numbers dropping that much. We just have to wait, but "Hello" should have the edge next week. I'm not sure about sales boost for next week (Week ends on Dec 24th, so maybe?).. If there's an overall sales boost then Adele has better chances. Same with Airplay, since it's one of the most sucessful radio hits this year.
I feel Adele will somehow manage to stay atop, but we'll keep an eye on Streaming, that could make the difference (except if sales are not that dead by Christmas).
Quote:
Originally posted by Bey Admired
Do we even know the US viewing statistics specifically? My guess is the difference between the two really isn't that significant when it comes down to just the US figures. Just a hunch though.
|
No, we just assume that the same global conduct is proportional to what happens in the United States. Of course that's not the way it is, but it can get closer from the final numbers.
Quote:
Originally posted by IBeMe
just ppl debating whether or not Sorry will overtake Hello on the hot 100.
what do you think Ger?
|
Possibly.... maybe?
|
|
|
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
|
Quote:
Originally posted by IBeMe
just ppl debating whether or not Sorry will overtake Hello on the hot 100.
what do you think Ger?
|
I really think Love Yourself has a better chance than Sorry now, but in a week Hello will add 20 million to its AI total. She will approach 235 million, and I'm not certain Beiber can reach 200 million with either song. He's going to get close to Swift's all time audience record on AS+R Top 40, but he's only going to add a 5-7 million more on there at most. I doubt he can reach beyond 135 million on Top 40 AS+R, which is about where Swift's Trouble peaked three years ago.
Remarkably, Adele is currently ranked in the Top 30 in airplay on Billboard's combined Rock Airplay, combined R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay, AND combined Latin Airplay Charts -- that's an incredible achievement. Just like Uptown Funk and Royals, Hello's airplay is spread across so many formats Sorry hasn't and likely can't impact.
I counted 13/21 All Stations charts on Mediabase where Hello was within the Top 50 just a few days ago. Sorry doesn't have that broad of a reach. The only chart I could see Beiber reaching that I doubt Adele can is Tropical Latin (due to his bilingual remix). He won't reach Triple A, Smooth Jazz, and I'd say it's doubtful he'll reach Adult Hits or either Urban Chart. Rhythmic AC is possible, and he may already be there (I haven't checked All Access the last few days).
|
|
|
Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 30,642
|
Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
I really think Love Yourself has a better chance than Sorry now, but in a week Hello will add 20 million to its AI total. She will approach 235 million, and I'm not certain Beiber can reach 200 million with either song. He's going to get close to Swift's all time audience record on AS+R Top 40, but he's only going to add a 5-7 million more on there at most. I doubt he can reach beyond 135 million on Top 40 AS+R, which is about where Swift's Trouble peaked three years ago.
Remarkably, Adele is currently ranked in the Top 30 in airplay on Billboard's combined Rock Airplay, combined R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay, AND combined Latin Airplay Charts -- that's an incredible achievement. Just like Uptown Funk and Royals, Hello's airplay is spread across so many formats Sorry hasn't and likely can't impact.
I counted 13/21 All Stations charts on Mediabase where Hello was within the Top 50 just a few days ago. Sorry doesn't have that broad of a reach. The only chart I could see Beiber reaching that I doubt Adele can is Tropical Latin (due to his bilingual remix). He won't reach Triple A, Smooth Jazz, and I'd say it's doubtful he'll reach Adult Hits or either Urban Chart. Rhythmic AC is possible, and he may already be there (I haven't checked All Access the last few days).
|
In other words she may temporarily loose her throne at the top of the Hot 100 for a week but regain it right after correct?
P.s: thank you for your long and often times ignored posts. I truly appreciate reading them and the stats you provide.
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/24/2008
Posts: 40,932
|
Sorry is probably hitting #1 soon.
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/11/2012
Posts: 4,202
|
Here is my second update of Hot 100 prediction (video streaming included)
1 (=) Hello - Adele 649
2 (=) Sorry - Justin Bieber 596
3 (=) Hotline Bling - Drake 379
4 (+1 ) Love Yourself - Justin Bieber 337
5 ( -1 ) What Do You Mean? - Justin Bieber 324
6 (+2 ) Here - Alessia Cara 280
7 ( -1 ) The Hills - The Weeknd 270
8 (+1 ) Same Old Love - Selena Gomez 267
9 ( -2 ) Stitches - Shawn Mendes 263
10 (=) Like I'm Gonna Lose You - Meghan Trainor Featuring John Legend 249
11 (+3 ) Jumpman - Drake & Future 238
12 ( -1 ) 679 - Fetty Wap Featuring Remy Boyz 225
13 (=) On My Mind - Ellie Goulding 200
14 (+5 ) In The Night - The Weeknd 200
15 (+7 ) All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey 186
16 (=) Antidote - Travi$ Scott 186
17 ( -2 ) Can't Feel My Face - The Weeknd 184
18 ( -6 ) Ex's & Oh's - Elle King 182
19 ( -2 ) Lean On - Major Lazer & DJ Snake Featuring M0 180
20 (=) Don't - Bryson Tiller 180
I'll give final update tomorrow, when we get Monday-Sunday Mediabase update
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/7/2015
Posts: 3,384
|
Quote:
Originally posted by FAN
Sorry is probably hitting #1 soon.
|
It's out of the question at this point
|
|
|
Member Since: 12/23/2011
Posts: 28,808
|
I am pretty sure SOL's worst possible position this weeks is #7
She should be easily ahead of Stitches & Here (She is above Here on sales + streaming + airplay is getting closer every day)
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/11/2012
Posts: 4,202
|
Quote:
Originally posted by roman19911
I am pretty sure SOL's worst possible position this weeks is #7
She should be easily ahead of Stitches & Here (She is above Here on sales + streaming + airplay is getting closer every day)
|
Not really, Here should be slightly ahead on streams imo (7.7m vs 7.6m) but I hope SOL gonna be higher on Hot100
|
|
|
Member Since: 12/23/2011
Posts: 28,808
|
Quote:
Originally posted by popmusic
Not really, Here should be slightly ahead on streams imo (7.7m vs 7.6m) but I hope SOL gonna be higher on Hot100
|
Last week SOL was already higher on streaming, and i believe this week they will be even closer on Spotify and SOL's video streams are higher than ever
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/11/2012
Posts: 4,202
|
Quote:
Originally posted by roman19911
Last week SOL was already higher on streaming, and i believe this week they will be even closer on Spotify and SOL's video streams are higher than ever
|
Hmm, you may be right, because I doesn't include programmed streams data. Also Here gain 1.4% on YT US, SOL 1.0%.
Edit. Ok, now I see. SOL get some streams from this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pilKt4HktEY + I use 6-day update
Now it's 8.2m for Selena and 7.7m for Alessia and SOL is over The Hills but still under Here. Also I use Mediabase last audience update and Selena is rising in AI. I need final numbers now
|
|
|
ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
|
The Top 10 R&B/Hip Hop Single Sales For Week Ending 12/10/2015
#1. Drake – “Hotline Bling (Cha Cha Remix)” – 52,261 (1,610,249)
#2. The Weeknd – “In The Night” – 40,502 (114,644)
#3. Alessia Cara – “Here” – 39,017 (714,709)
#4. The Weeknd – “The Hills” – 38,802 (2,402,019)
#5. Fetty Wap f. Remy Boyz – “679” – 34,651 (1,425,764)
#6. Drake & Future – “Jumpman” – 28,125 (388,322)
#7. Missy Elliott – “WTF (Where They From)” – 26,085 (161,664)
#8. Post Malone – “White Iverson” – 25,803 (391,420)
#9. The Weeknd – “Can’t Feel My Face” – 22,228 (2,141,814)
#10. Travi$ Scott – “Antidote” – 21,163 (316,963)
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Sheena
It's out of the question at this point
|
"Out of the question": too unlikely to merit discussion
not permitted
Oh, okay, good to know.
|
|
|
Member Since: 10/30/2010
Posts: 8,520
|
Digital sales are completely over. Typical #1s are gonna struggle to sell a million soon. The fact that WDYM is at 1.5 million after 4 months in the Top 5....
|
|
|
Member Since: 4/3/2014
Posts: 5,036
|
Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
Previously, though, Adele held a large lead in video streams, which has been one of her strongest metrics throughout her reign so far.
Doing a couple of quick calculations, 29.2% of Sorry's Spotify streams are originating from the US, and 27.6% of Hello's streams are coming from here. Thus, it seems to be a reasonable assumption that the percentages of YT streams coming from the US are also close (though Hello is probably a bit more global). So if Sorry can pull ahead on global YT views, it'll likely be pulling ahead on US views as well.
Let's do some hypotheticals. Hello recorded 65.9 million global YT views this week (losing 24% from last week), while Sorry pulled in 57.6M (gaining 9%). If the same increases and decreases occur this week, Hello will have 50.1M next week and Sorry 62.8M - which would give Justin a video streaming advantage, likely one of around 2 million (that figure comes from dividing his global advantage by 6, assuming approximately 15-20% of the YT streams for both songs are coming for the US - YT streams are known to be much more global than Spotify's, and as stated earlier it's reasonable to think that the percentages will be similar due to those Spotify number - though Sorry's advantage could be larger due to Hello's YT streams being more global). If Sorry can close the airplay gap (which it should be able to do, seeing that it still has room to grow on both HAC and rhythmic, while Hello has already peaked on the former) as well as the sales gap (which it has already begun to do), it will be able to take the #1 spot.
Even if Hello only decreases by half as much as it did this week (that would be 12%) and Sorry only gains by half as much (4.5%), the global YT views chart will look like this:
Hello 58.0M
Sorry 55.0M
So Hello will probably only have a US streaming advantage of around half a million (or perhaps even less considering that its YT streams are fairly likely to be more global than Sorry's), setting the stage for Sorry to close the gap the next week.
|
that's interesting but remember, next week is christmas week and everything will slow down and Justin's slowing can be harder then Adele's.
and week after that is christmas card week, where all songs will go up, and Adele's will probably sell a lot also.
so he is close but it will be hard and christmas may kill his chances (for now)
|
|
|
Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
|
Some things Billboard pointed out on last week's chart:
Nicky Jam & Enrique Iglesias' 'El Perdon' Is on the Year-End Hot 100 … After Peaking at No. 56?
23rd-longest chart run of the year. (One of the other songs to spend 30 weeks on the Hot 100 in the 52 weeks of the 2015 chart year? OMI's "Cheerleader.") Thus, a lengthy chart stay played into the year-end rank for "El Perdon," as it ranked in the top one-fourth of the year's titles by chart life.
(The math is essentially the opposite of the cast of Fox's Glee not placing among the top 100 artists when Billboard recently tabulated the Greatest of All Time charts.)
Crowned Hot Latin Songs for 30 weeks (and has since spent two more months at No. 2 each week), the second-longest reign in the chart's history (behind Iglesias' own "Bailando," at 41 weeks).
Braiden Sunshine & Shelby Brown of 'The Voice' Win on Christian Charts
Fifteen-year-old Sunshine, from Old Lyme, Conn., bows atop Hot Christian Songs...as the high school student's rendition of "Amazing Grace" starts with 31,000 downloads sold, according to Nielsen Music...With Sunshine's coronation, a Voice contestant controls Hot Christian Songs for a fourth straight week. Smith led the Dec. 5 and 12 charts with "Great Is Thy Faithfulness" and followed Dec. 19 with his version of Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah."
|
|
|
Member Since: 11/17/2010
Posts: 10,527
|
Is Love Yourself getting ready to jump over Sorry on Billboard? Definetly not this week, but Sorry's time is about up now thanks to LY. It has two versions and the the first version alone already has a lead over Sorry.
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/6/2015
Posts: 12,327
|
Quote:
Originally posted by LostInStereo100
Is Love Yourself getting ready to jump over Sorry on Billboard? Definetly not this week, but Sorry's time is about up now thanks to LY. It has two versions and the the first version alone already has a lead over Sorry.
|
This week I have Sorry at 591 and Love Yourself at 334 points...
Downloads are close to irrelevant and Sorry has 100+ million airplay more and ~10 million streams more. LY will not overtake Sorry anytime soon.
|
|
|
Member Since: 4/3/2014
Posts: 5,036
|
I hope (my perfect scenario) is that Hello will keep blocking Sorry
and then get ready for When We Were Young
which will block Love Youself
|
|
|
|
|